PGA Tour Stats Review: Masters Tournament

It's finally here, the Masters, a tradition unlike any other, so says Jim Nantz. But unlike our previous Masters previews, we must start with the weather, because it could have a huge impact on who wins this week.

The Weather

Thunderstorms disrupted practice rounds Monday and could do the same for the Par 3 Contest on Wednesday. Rain should move out for the first two rounds of tournament, but wind is expected to move in. Thursday could see 20 mph wind with gusts up to 30 mph, while Friday gusts ease a bit to 20 mph. Temperatures for both days are expected to be unseasonably cool in the mid-60s. The weekend, though, should be nice with light wind, sun and temperatures back into the 70s, but the impact might have been felt already.

The bottom line is Augusta National will play wet except for the greens, which can be at whatever speed officials want them to be because of the SubAir system beneath them. So what does that mean for the contenders …
Hello Dustin Johnson!

It does seem like everything is breaking his way this week. The man who absolutely overpowered Austin Country Club en route to the Match Play victory, including a 424-yard drive on No. 12 in the championship match that was short of Jon Rahm, is third in strokes gained off the tee and 11th in approach to the green, both key stats on what will be a wet golf course where iron proximity – he's third in that category – will be crucial. But as Tripp Isenhour pointed out on Golf Central last week, don't overlook the importance of improved short game play.

@jschil@CoryBradburn Tour average is 8'4". DJ is ranked 2nd averaging 5'2" Best driver and best around the greens, hard to play poorly!!!

— Tripp Isenhour (@TrippIsenhourGC) March 28, 2017

Rahm ranks third in strokes gained-off the tee, 12th in approach to the green and 22nd in greens in regulation. The key for him will be accuracy and learning the greens at Augusta National. He's 56th in strokes gained-putting -- you can't be mid-range to win the Masters – and is 130th in driving accuracy.

This week has been interesting for Rahm. Monday and Wednesday's practices were cut short by rain, and Thursday and Friday will be exceptionally windy. This is usually not good for a rookie, and not good for anyone -- Rahm included -- who hasn't seen Augusta in these conditions. Yet Rahm has outdone everyone's expectations for him all year, and I expect him to play well early in the week. Sunday could be a different story -- but the weather will be calmer by then. I bet you see him up on the leaderboard come Sunday.

Noren, meanwhile, lost to Dustin Johnson in the quarterfinals in a fantastic match and is probably the best player in the world not many casual golf or sports fans have heard of. He won four times last year in Europe and opened this season going T13-T21 on the European Tour before going T55-T49 in Mexico and Bay Hill prior to Austin. Last year on the European Tour he was fifth in scoring average, 18th in greens in regulation, 20th in putts per GIR and fourth in scrambling, all key indicators for Augusta. With a game that seemed to be coming around in Austin, Noren could be a factor.

Hatton has had a super-solid Southern Swing, going T4-10-T4-T17, and is ranked 14th in strokes gained-off the tee, sixth in approach to the green and first in putting. Stay well rounded and he has a chance to don that green jacket.

Other Notables

Jordan Spieth: Missing the cut and hitting some erratic iron shots in Houston will make some steer clear, but consider that he's first in greens in regulation on the PGA Tour this year and has improved his proximity to the hole ranking – an indicator of the poor iron play that ultimately doomed him on Sunday last year -- by three feet, two inches, which might not sound like a lot but actually is. If mentally he can get past any demons from last year and can fix whatever went erratic in Houston, he'll contend.

Jason Day - He withdrew from the Match Play because of his mother's impending surgery for lung cancer. Fortunately, the surgery went well, and he will return to the tour this week at the Masters. Who knows where his game is, though, in a season in which admittedly his mind has been elsewhere. His form has not been good lately, and I would steer clear.

Justin Thomas - Thomas was everyone's favorite after his hot Hawaii run but hit some speed bumps lately. He's gone MC-T39-MC-T5-MC-T39 in his last six starts. Stats wise, consider his missed cut in Tampa, for example, where he hit 55 percent of his greens, way below his 71 percent for the season average, and lost strokes in approach to the green and putting, whereas for the season he's up .716 and .377 against the field in those categories. Thomas loves Augusta, though, has been chomping at the bit for nearly a year to get back there and honestly feels like it's set up well for him, especially in these wet conditions. If you want to ride him, go for it. If not, it's understandable.

Adam Hadwin - Don't overlook Hadwin. He shot 59 at the CareerBuilder and won in Tampa with a hot putter. Both of those things will be necessary in soft conditions. He's sixth in strokes gained-putting this season and third in putting from 10-15 feet, key distances at Augusta. I think he's a great sleeper at Augusta.

Rory McIlroy - Rory's kind of weird. His game looked great in Mexico until it slipped a bit on the weekend and then he just ran into a bizarre Match Play situation where a withdrawal of one player and a poor opening day performance ended his week. For me, it's about the mental side of the game with Rory. He said Tuesday he's played 99 holes at Augusta in the last two weeks, which is a ton of golf and good for someone who clearly wanted to feel prepared and see the course in multiple conditions. You can make a case that someone can play TOO much at Augusta going in, but I think the forecast actually helps him and he has the advantage of having seen the course recently with and without wind and at different temperatures. In a week where those who are on will become extremely evident quickly, look for him to be on the rise Thursday.
Phil Mickelson – Phil loves to play the week before a major, but after barely making the cut in Houston he tied for 55th with four rounds in the 70s. He has shown flashes of good play throughout the year, though, and he gets a different feeling as he goes down Magnolia Lane. But winning the Masters will come down to one thing: avoiding big numbers. He STILL is in the 100s in bogey avoidance – 102nd at the moment – and that is a sign of too many poor holes.

Predictions

Winner: Dustin Johnson.

Sleeper: Alex Noren.

Super Sleeper: Adam Hadwin

Americans to watch: Rickie Fowler contended in Houston, but watch for Brandt Snedeker and Brooks Koepka. Streaky, can hit it a ways and are good putters. All things you like to see at Augusta.