This article is part of our Golf Draft Kit series.
Sleepers
Dumont de Chassart is a 23-year-old Belgian and Korn Ferry grad who took the secondary tour by storm after joining in midseason. The University of Illinois alum gained entry to the KF Tour by finishing third in the PGA Tour's University rankings. Ludvig Aberg was first. Dumont de Chassart won his KF debut in a playoff in June, then lost in a playoff his next time out before rolling off four more consecutive top-10s. That tied an all-time KF Tour record for successive top-10s, but no one had ever done to start their career. Dumont de Chassart ranked on the KF Tour in putting average, and was also top-15 in total driving, greens in regulation and scrambling, which pretty much covers all facets of the game except post-round interviews.His lone PGA Tour start to date was a missed cut at the 2022 U.S. Open. As we have seen in the past few years, today's college players can hit the ground as professionals -- Collin Morikawa, Viktor Hovland, Matthew Wolff and Aberg, to name a few. Dumont de Chassart was a three-time winner of Big Ten Conference Player of the Year across his five seasons with the Illini.
— Len Hochberg
Aside from a top-15 performance at the 2022 U.S. Open, Hardy's rookie campaign was otherwise underwhelming, and a left wrist injury ultimately forced him to play the 2022-23 season on a Major Medical Extension after finishing just 143rd in the 2021-22
Sleepers
Dumont de Chassart is a 23-year-old Belgian and Korn Ferry grad who took the secondary tour by storm after joining in midseason. The University of Illinois alum gained entry to the KF Tour by finishing third in the PGA Tour's University rankings. Ludvig Aberg was first. Dumont de Chassart won his KF debut in a playoff in June, then lost in a playoff his next time out before rolling off four more consecutive top-10s. That tied an all-time KF Tour record for successive top-10s, but no one had ever done to start their career. Dumont de Chassart ranked on the KF Tour in putting average, and was also top-15 in total driving, greens in regulation and scrambling, which pretty much covers all facets of the game except post-round interviews.His lone PGA Tour start to date was a missed cut at the 2022 U.S. Open. As we have seen in the past few years, today's college players can hit the ground as professionals -- Collin Morikawa, Viktor Hovland, Matthew Wolff and Aberg, to name a few. Dumont de Chassart was a three-time winner of Big Ten Conference Player of the Year across his five seasons with the Illini.
— Len Hochberg
Aside from a top-15 performance at the 2022 U.S. Open, Hardy's rookie campaign was otherwise underwhelming, and a left wrist injury ultimately forced him to play the 2022-23 season on a Major Medical Extension after finishing just 143rd in the 2021-22 FedExCup Standings. However, he rebounded by making the cut in 26 of 37 starts, which included 10 top-25s and his maiden victory at the two-man Zurich Classic of New Orleans alongside playing partner Davis Riley. In addition to his effective power off the tee, Hardy made the seventh most birdies on the PGA Tour this past season, and he ranked top-25 among his peers in both Prox: 175-200 and Prox: 200-plus. Hardy's biggest weakness lies in his around-the-green capabilities, but he's an above-average ball striker, and the 27-year-old will have access to a couple increased Signature Event purses at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and the Genesis Invitational after finishing 57th in the FedExCup Fall standings.
— Bryce Danielson
By this time next year everyone will know who this 21-year-old is. Hisatsune had a stellar run in 2022 on the Japan Tour before earning a DP World Tour card and parlaying that into Rookie of the Year and a 2024 PGA Tour card. Across all tours in 2023 Hisatsune racked up 10 top-10s and 20 top-25s, including his first DPWT win at the Cazoo Open de France. The future Japanese star made four starts in the 2022-23 PGA Tour season and finished top-12 in three of them. There may be growing pains to start the year, but the upside here is real and I expect him to contend in multiple PGA Tour events in 2024 -- possibly even a major.
— Ryan Andrade
Knapp will be an older rookie at 29 years old, but we know how that worked out for Eric Cole last season. He gained his card through a consistent and strong season on the Korn Ferry Tour, making 20-of-22 cuts with a whopping 10 top-10s. He also led the KFT in par-5 scoring average and was second in driving distance, so all signs point towards his game translating well at the next level. The Korn Ferry graduates will have less time to get accustomed to the PGA Tour without having the fall season this time around, but should have plenty of opportunities to make their mark in the non-signature events against weaker fields.
— Ryan Pohle
List is a late-bloomer but he's just getting a taste of winning on the PGA Tour. He lost a couple months this past season to a thumb injury, so his salary cap number for this season is lower than it would be otherwise. After several years of treading water, List appears to be hitting his stride as he approaches 40.
— Greg Vara
Schmid is a name we'll see on a few leaderboards in 2024. The Swede finished the year strong with two top-5 finishes, and he could strike early at the American Express, where he finished sixth last season. Although he'll play some events overseas, Schmid is expected to play a full schedule in search of his first PGA Tour win, which should come sooner rather than later.
— Jeff Edgerton
Busts
Day was playing about as well as anyone at one point last season, finding his old form and breaking a five-year winless drought at the AT&T Byron Nelson in May. The momentum stalled from there, however, as he only posted one top-25 over his final eight starts and struggled mightily during the playoffs. His iron play dipped dramatically, as he lost strokes on approach in six of those tournaments. I won't go as far as to say his game is going to complete fall off the rails in 2024, as he's still a solid driver with an above average short game. With that said, he's not playing anywhere near his ranking of 21st in the OWGR would suggest, and expecting him to match his seven top-10s from 2023 would be asking a lot.
— Ryan Pohle
Let's not call it a bust but unmet expectations. There's no way Glover, the Flavor of the Month last August, could've continued his torrid streak, in large part because his new-found putting success simply was sustainable. Guys who are 44 years old and career-long terrible putters don't simply flip a switch and become Brad Faxon in his prime. After Glover won the Wyndham and FedEx St. Jude playoff event, cries rang out for a Ryder Cup berth. He was not chosen, and in his four tournaments since then he has just one top-20, and that was in the 30-man Tour Championship (T18). Before Glover's late-season surge, he was in danger of losing his card; he hadn't even qualified for a major all year -- don't forget that everyone and their grandmother qualifies for the PGA Championship. In his four starts after his back-to-back wins, Glover ranked 38-21-61-47 in putting. Again, the 21 was in the 30-man TOUR Championship. During the 2022-23, including his late-season renaissance, Glover ranked 169th on Tour in SG: Putting. His ball striking -- he's one of the best -- should net him some top-25s and an occasional top-10, but there's no way he can recreate last July-August again.
— Len Hochberg
Bust is a relative term of course ,and while I don't expect Harman's game to fall off a cliff, I can't imagine he will come close to replicating his performance from this past season. Harman has been a solid PGA Tour player for most of his career, but he punched above his weight and it's not likely to happen again.
— Greg Vara
Kitayama made nearly $7 million in the 2022-23 season, but a closer look at the numbers tells us we should be weary of the 30-year-old going into 2024. Kitayama made nearly all of his earnings in four starts, his win at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, a runner-up at the CJ Cup, a T5 at the WGC-Match Play and a T4 at the PGA Championship. Outside of that he had just three top-25s and missed 10 cuts. Kitayama was also 96th in strokes gained and ranked outside the top-180 in both driving accuracy and GIR percentage. Kitayama has a low floor because of those numbers and it would be really hard to see him being able to come anywhere close to his earnings from last season in 2024.
— Ryan Andrade
Moore certainly avoided a sophomore slump during the 2022-23 season, as he racked up 13 top-25s and his first career PGA Tour win at the Valspar Championship en route to just over $5 million in earnings across 31 starts. The 30-year-old even advanced to East Lake while solidifying a top-30 finish in the FedExCup standings, though he didn't beat anyone in Atlanta. However, tying for dead last at the TOUR Championship obviously isn't the reason he's a potential bust in 2024. Moore ended the 2022-23 campaign on the negative side of both SG: Off-the-Tee and SG: Approach, while his 64.14 GIR percentage was just 170th on Tour. He also lost an average of 2.3 strokes from tee to green per event throughout his final 10 measured outings. Moore was simply too reliant on spike weeks with the putter, and a 1.77 putting average indicates that those spikes are likely unsustainable as regression awaits in 2024 if his ball striking fails to improve.
— Bryce Danielson
Although Zalatoris is expected to be back to a full schedule after undergoing back surgery, it will be a while before the 27-year-old will feel like his old self. Practicing after returning from a major surgery can create some bad habits to minimize pain, and while he will do his best to not re-aggravate the issue, it's going to be an uphill climb, especially in the early events of the season.
— Jeff Edgerton
