Beating the Book: Chris Liss Handicaps Week 1

This column is back for its 19th year, believe it or not. The first 10 were better than the last nine, results-wise, and while there are many possible explanations for that, I'm bored of going over it obsessively and trying to recapture the "magic touch." It is what it is, and this year I'll pick the teams I want to pick for the reasons I want to pick them without feigning any kind of faux-rigor or bogus process. To hell with the process and to hell with the results. I'm doing this for the love of it.

THURSDAY NIGHT

Chiefs +8.5 at Patriots

Despite being a public team, the Patriots have been spread-covering machines since 2001 when they won their first Super Bowl. Last year, they took it to a new level going 13-3 against the number despite bookmakers knowing the public was likely to be on them. How is that possible? My guess is that it's because the Pats don't trade margin of victory for time on the the clock very often. In other words, unlike most teams, if they're up 20 in the third quarter, they don't go into a shell. They'll go up 27 or 30 and only at the tail end of the game dial it back. The algorithms on which the lines are based seem not to account for this, instead looking at per-play success and productivity as if every team plays it the same way. But the Patriots are a different animal.

That said, Andy Reid has a great record off bye weeks and is one of the best coaches in the league at drawing up a gameplan when given time to prepare. Still, I'm laying the wood with the Pats at home.

Patriots 31 - 17

EARLY GAMES

Jets +9 at Bills

The Jets have been gutted in a transparent attempt to rebuild, something you'd be more likely to see in the NBA or MLB, but not the NFL. The latest domino to fall was star defensive tackle Sheldon Richardson, who's now in Seattle. The Bills seem to be following suit with the Sammy Watkins trade, but Tyrod Taylor is expected to suit up, and the Bills should run it at will against a depleted Jets front. But this is a big number for a bad team to lay, even at home, so I'll hold my nose and take the points. Back the Jets.

Bills 20 - 13

Falcons -7 at Bears

The Falcons obviously should have won the Super Bowl, but Kyle Shanahan is gone, and I tend to believe in the hangover theory for SB losers - especially the way they lost it. The only thing that gives me pause is their young defense played much better during the second half of the season and throttled the Pats for three quarters before the team collapsed. Still, this is a big number to lay on the road, and I think the Bears will show up. Take the points.

Falcons 24 - 20

Jaguars +5 at Texans

There's been some hype over the offseason about the Jaguars defense, but they still have the same quarterback, and this is a road game against a team playing for its city after a major natural disaster. Plus J.J. Watt is back. Lay the wood.

Texans 20 - 10

Eagles -1 at Redskins

I don't get this line at all. These are roughly even teams, but somehow the Eagles are laying points on the road. Take the Redskins.

Redskins 27 - 23

Cardinals -1.5 at Lions

I would have made this game a pick 'em. The Cardinals are the better team, but an early body-clock road game and uncertainty in the receiving corps makes it hard to see them as a road favorite. Take the Lions.

Lions 23 - 20

Raiders +2 at Titans

These are roughly equal teams, and if I had to pick which one were better, I'd take the Titans who are more balanced and have the more efficient quarterback. That the Raiders aren't even getting the full three makes this an easy call. Take Tennessee.

Titans 30 - 23

Ravens +3 at Bengals

These are roughly equal teams, so this is about the right line, making this a coin flip. I'll take the Bengals because they're better on offense, but it's not a strong lean.

Bengals 24 - 20

Steelers -8.5 at Browns

The Browns might not be the total doormat they've been the last several years - the defense should be better, and DeShone Kizer is mobile and has decent weapons in Kenny Britt and Corey Coleman. Moreover, Ben Roethlisberger has been terrible on the road three years running. This is too big a number. Take the Browns.

Steelers 20 - 19

LATE GAMES

Colts +3.5 at Rams

With Andrew Luck and Vontae Davis not playing, the Colts are in Jets territory. The Rams aren't good, but at least they appear to be an NFL team. Lay the wood.

Rams 24 - 6

Seahawks +3 at Packers

These are roughly equal teams, so this line is about right. Total coin flip, but give me the Seahawks and the points.

Packers 24 - 23

Panthers -5.5 at 49ers

I'm a Kyle Shanahan believer, and expect the 49ers to be a credible NFL team this year. I'm also a Cam Newton fan and think the Panthers have a good chance to make the playoffs, but this is too many points on the road. Take the Niners.

Panthers 24 - 20

SUNDAY NIGHT

Giants +3.5 at Cowboys

It looks like Zeke Elliott is playing, but that doesn't move the needle for me. The Giants defense throttled the Cowboys the last time they played, and I think Dallas - with its lack of depth after Elliott and Dez Bryant on offense - will again struggle to move the ball against one of the league's top defenses. And the Cowboys' defense has been decimated by suspensions and injuries. As bad as Ben McAdoo has been as a coach, and as poorly as Eli Manning has played, I'm taking the points - even with Odell Beckham questionable with an ankle injury.

Giants 20 - 16

MONDAY NIGHT

Saints +3.5 at Vikings

These seem like roughly equal teams to me, so why not take the extra half point near a key number? Back the Saints.

Vikings 20 - 17

Chargers +3.5 at Broncos

This is exactly like Saints-Vikings. Two equal teams, one of which is getting a valuable hook. Take the Chargers.

Chargers 23 - 20

I was 123-128-5 during the 2017 season. From 1999-2017, I've gone 2,428-2,270 (51.7%), not including ties.