This article is part of our DFS NFL series.
There are some matchups that stand out in Week 10, including the Commanders playing host to the Steelers. There will be four teams on a bye and injuries will also have a significant impact on the slate. Let's dig through all of the games and highlight some of the top players to target when building your lineups.
The Games
A lot of the focus of DFS picks is on individual players. Skills certainly matter, but finding game environments that are likely to promote a lot of points scored is a way to narrow the focus of our player pool.
| Over-Under | Road Team | Road Implied Total | Home Team | Home Implied Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 38.5 | Patriots | 15.5 | Bears | 22.5 |
| 47.5 | Bills | 26.5 | Colts | 22.5 |
| 45.5 | Vikings | 24.5 | Jaguars | 20.5 |
| 41.5 | Broncos | 16.5 | Chiefs | 25.5 |
| 46.5 | Falcons | 25.5 | Saints | 21.5 |
| 50.5 | 49ers | 28.5 | Buccaneers | 22.5 |
| 45.5 | Steelers | 21.5 | Commanders | 23.5 |
| 38.5 | Titans | 14.5 | Chargers | 23.5 |
| 45.5 | Jets | 23.5 | Cardinals | 22.5 |
| 42.5 | Eagles | 25.5 | Cowboys | 17.5 |
| 48.5 | Lions | 26.5 | Texans | 22.5 |
There is only one game with a total of at least 50 points. There are also two games with a total lower than 40 points.
The favorites with the highest totals include the 49ers, Bills and Lions.
Value Options
Aaron Rodgers, NYJ at ARI ($7,100)
It has been three games since the Jets added Rodgers' old friend Davante Adams ($7,600). Rodgers threw six touchdowns over that span, including a season-high three last week against the Texans. He might not have many problems moving the ball down the field against the Cardinals, who have allowed the ninth-most passing yards per game in the league. Add in his increased touchdown upside because of Adams being on the team and Rodgers could provide significant value.
Tyler Allgeier, ATL at NO ($5,900)
Despite having Bijan Robinson ($8,800) in the fold, the Falcons continue to give work to Allgeier. He has received at least 12 carries in two of the last four games. He also came away with two touchdowns during that span. When he faced the Saints in Week 4, he had eight carries for 60 yards. The Saints are hurting at wide receiver, so they could struggle to score in this game. That could lead to a heavy dose of the Falcons running the ball in the second half. The Saints have also allowed 10 rushing touchdowns this season, which is tied for the second-most in the league. Allgeier has the potential for double-digit carries and a touchdown in this matchup.
Other Value Options
QB Joe Flacco, IND vs. BUF ($7,300)
QB Cooper Rush, DAL vs. PHI ($6,500)
RB Najee Harris, PIT at WAS ($7,100)
RB Rachaad White, TB vs. SF ($6,400)
RB Rico Dowdle, DAL vs. PHI ($6,200)
WR Khalil Shakir, BUF at IND ($6,200)
WR DeAndre Hopkins, KC vs. DEN ($6,000)
WR Calvin Ridley, TEN at LAC ($5,800)
TE Hunter Henry, NE at CHI ($5,300)
TE Foster Moreau, NO vs. ATL ($4,500)
Stacks to Consider
Minnesota Vikings vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars' secondary is a disaster. The team is tied for the most passing touchdowns allowed in the league and they have allowed the second-most FanDuel points per game to quarterbacks. Wide receivers have posted a 68.2 percent catch rate against them, which is the fourth-highest mark. Sam Darnold ($7,800) and Justin Jefferson ($9,500) are almost too good to resist in DFS.
Detroit Lions vs. Houston Texans
Jared Goff ($8,000) only threw for 145 yards and one touchdown last week, but don't read too much into that poor performance. The weather was awful on the road in Green Bay. On the bright side, he completed at least 72.0 percent of his pass attempts for the sixth consecutive game. Prior to Week 9, Goff had a streak of five straight games with at least two touchdowns. Look for him and Amon-Ra St. Brown ($9,000) to produce juicy stat lines playing in a much more fantasy friendly environment in Houston. The Texans are also tied for the most touchdown passes allowed in the league.
Other Stacks to Consider
49ers – Brock Purdy ($8,100) + George Kittle ($8,000)
Eagles – Jalen Hurts ($9,400) + DeVonta Smith ($8,500)
Buccaneers – Baker Mayfield ($8,200) + Cade Otton ($6,400)
High-Price Heroes
Aaron Jones, MIN at JAC ($7,900)
Jones wasn't efficient last week, turning 21 carries into just 64 yards. He averages 4.5 yards per carry, so expect him to get back on track in short order. The heavy workload was great to see and marked the fourth time over the last six games that Jones has been given at least 19 carries. Plenty of work against a Jaguars team that has allowed the fourth-most FanDuel points per game to running backs leaves Jones with a high floor.
Garrett Wilson, NYJ at ARI ($7,900)
The addition of Adams has not made Wilson less involved in the Jets' offense. He has been targeted at least eight times in all three games since the team acquired Adams. That helped him produce two games with at least 90 receiving yards. He also caught two touchdown passes in Week 10 versus the Texans. With the Cardinals giving up yards through the air in bunches, Wilson is another member of the Jets to strongly consider.
The Smash Spot
Saquon Barkley, PHI at DAL ($9,600)
Barkley is just making defenders look silly. His highlight run in which he leaped backward over a defender last week was just a part of a huge stat line that saw him turn 27 carries into 159 yards and a touchdown. He also added three receptions for 40 yards and another score. The Eagles have given him at least 17 carries in all but one game this season. A Week 6 matchup against the Browns has been the only game in which Barkley finished with fewer than 100 total yards. While his salary is pricey, he could be well worth it against a Cowboys team that has allowed the third-most FanDuel points per game to running backs.
