This article is part of our East Coast Offense series.
The Anatomy of a Bad Beat
Before we get into this topic, it's worth stating at the outset something to which everyone who joins a league implicity agrees: There Is No Justice In Fantasy Football. Nonetheless, that doesn't stop us from superimposing our own standards of fairness on the process. That's why there's such a thing as a "bad beat" as opposed to simply a close game where you came up short.
One can argue the difference between the two depends on the recipient, i.e., if I lose a close game, it's a bad beat, but if you do, it's a tough loss, but I don't think that's the case. If you had Aaron Rodgers going this week, and 10 points from him would have given you the win, I'd be hard pressed to call that a bad beat. You're not somehow owed production from your best players such that their failure to pay constitutes a default on a debt. If a stupid coach punts on 4th-and-short in plus territory when he should go for it, thereby depriving your players of would-be production, again, I don't think that rises to the level of "bad beat." By drafting a particular player, you own a piece of that coach, and his cowardly tendencies are part of that player's profile.
For something to be a bad beat, it has to be against the odds and the result of bad luck. It also helps if it's bizarre and unrelated to the purpose of winning an NFL game. Rodgers having such a poor day was at least in part due to the skill of the Buffalo defense, for example, and a defense stifling a quarterback is its central purpose.
For an example of a bad beat this weekend, I was playing against Derek VanRiper in the Vegas League semifinals. Heading into Sunday night, I was up about 17, while he had Jeremy Maclin and LeSean McCoy going. I had Mark Ingram going on Monday night. Not only did the Eagles bizarrely hand the ball off to Chris Polk at the one-yard line, they did it twice, the second time after DVR's other guy, Maclin made a 70-yard reception and got tackled inside the one. Moreover, on another series, McCoy got around the corner, looked like he would score, but was pushed out at the two. On the next play, McCoy was the lead blocker for Darren Sproles who scored the TD. As a result, DVR lost by two points before the Monday night game even started.
One could argue that McCoy doesn't owe DVR any points, but you'd think with all those carries inside the one, one of which was set up by his other guy, McCoy would get at least one of the tries. It wasn't the Dallas defense stifling McCoy or Chip Kelly necessarily making a mistake or doing something that reflects any kind of longstanding policy on his part - he simply elected for some bizarre reason to apportion his touchdowns away from DVR.
As it turns out, it wasn't a bad beat because Ingram wound up with 11.9 points on Monday night. And actually, had McCoy and Maclin combined for two scores, DVR would still have lost when Ingram scored on a meaningless 15-yard TD when the Saints could have run out the clock. That would have been a really bad beat.
Don't Complain About DeMarco Murray or Julio Jones
On a related note, I've heard a lot of bellyaching from people (I might have been one of them) who were missing Jones this week, or might be missing Murray in Week 16. While this is, no doubt, a hardship, you should be happy both players had the decency to get injured in the fourth quarter after amassing significant fantasy production all game. Had they gone down in the first quarter, as so many less considerate players do, you probably wouldn't even have an upcoming playoff game about which to complain.
Horrendous, Unwatchable Games
Maybe I'm just more irritable in my advancing age, but there are certain weeks the games seem particularly bad. Week 15 was one of them.
When I went through my weekly observations, I had virtually nothing good to say about any of them. The Cowboys-Eagles was exciting for a brief stretch in the third quarter, Odell Beckham had a great game, Mike Wallace made a great catch at the end of the first half and Josh McCown had a heroic 16-yard TD run to secure the cover. I think we may have reached a tipping point between the constant reviews and excessive penalty flags where an engaging game flow is too often out of reach.
So many of us have loved watching football since we were kids, so when we sit down to watch a game, we enjoy it simply due to the association. And certainly it's fun if you're winning a fantasy league, a survivor pool or a bet. But no matter how strong a brand is, when the product slips, it's only a matter of time before that association wears off.
Week 15 Observations
• I wrote about how Cutler looked "checked out" last week, and the Monday night game against a bad Saints defense lent further support to that theory. (I'm obviously not the only one saying this - even Jon Gruden who praises almost everyone as if they deserve a place in the Hall of Fame was riding Cutler all game.) It's too bad because he's got a top-five NFL arm, and he still moves surprisingly well, but he plays like a guy who wants to retire but someone's blackmailing him into sticking around.
• How about the garbage time for Alshon Jeffery (and Ingram)? Not only did Jeffery get a chunk of yards and a TD at the end of a blowout, but most of Jeffery's other yardage came in first-half garbage time on a 30-second drive before time expired.
• It's strange to see Drew Brees do nothing at home week after week, then blow up outdoors on the road. Jimmy Graham had a decent game, but he's just not that big a factor in the offense right now. This looks more like the pre-Graham Saints where Brees put up monster numbers spreading the ball around, and besides Marques Colston - who was more a top-15 than top-10 WR - it was hard to count on anyone else in the offense.
• Johnny Manziel's starting debut was the featured early game on Fox in Los Angeles – producers love that kind of thing. It was like Satan's Tebow. Unfortunately – for all of us who dumped on Mike Pettine for not even considering a switch at halftime of the Colts game – maybe Pettine did know something, and wanted to avoid using him until Brian Hoyer forced his hand. I wanted to root for the Browns to win (the spread was a pick 'em), but usually you fade the story, and I'm glad I had the wisdom to do that after my moronic pick on Thursday night.
• The Seahawks won by 10, a push against the spread, but it was in large part due to a terrible roughing the passer call against Russell Wilson that extended a drive and got Seattle a touchdown. When it goes my way (I laid the wood), I'm not going to complain too much, but the 49ers getting 10 were easily the right side.
• It's amazing the Lions could only score one touchdown at home, despite two Teddy Bridgewater picks in the Vikings end. Calvin Johnson, Golden Tate and Reggie Bush apparently aren't enough weapons for Matthew Stafford against the Vikings in ideal conditions.
• The Jets 16-11 win over the Titans was the only game in NFL history to have that score.
• I have nothing to say about the Colts-Texans which I barely watched except I had the Texans +6.5 and knew the Colts would weasel their way to a cover like they always do. I also tried but could not settle on phrasing for a Tom Savage tweet – something along the lines of his play being barbaric.
• It's crazy how the Jaguars were driving in the final minute down eight in Baltimore, i.e., they had a chance to tie, but simultaneously the Ravens (with a pick-six) had a chance to cover the 13.5 point spread.
• What a dominant showing by the Bills defense against Aaron Rodgers. You almost never see Rodgers look that lost. (I realize Jordy Nelson dropped a would-be 90-yard TD, but even so.) It's a good reminder not to judge quarterbacks based on their worst performances.
• How strange for the Browns to annihilate the Bengals in Cincinnati so completely the first time around and then get so destroyed at home a couple months later.
• I suppose Josh Gordon wasn't worth the wait. I'll still be taking him in the second round next year though.
• The Dolphins-Pats was another strange game. The Dolphins were down only 14-13 at halftime despite having a FG blocked for a TD, an interception returned for 50-plus yards and a perfectly thrown, 35-yard would-be TD pass dropped, resulting in a long FG. Then the wheels came off in the second half.
• Mike Wallace's sliding one-handed TD catch at the end of the first half wasn't quite Odell Beckham great, but it was close.
• Speaking of which, I know it was the Redskins, but Beckham looked unguardable. Not only did he have three TDs, but he made a great catch on a fourth, a deep ball on which he was turned around, but it was called back for a hold. Beckham plays bigger than he is due to his athleticism and huge hands, so he can catch the end-zone fade, but he also goes over the middle, runs slants and can sprint by almost anyone. The Giants also have him returning punts and even gave him an ill-advised hand-off on 4th-and-1.
• Robert Griffin actually looked good when he came in for an injured Colt McCoy, and he was as mobile and fast as ever. But after fumbling away a TD at the end of the first half – I actually missed seeing the replay that showed he fumbled because I assumed it was a TD and switched channels – he regressed back to the guy who stands around too long and gets drilled, taking a whopping seven sacks on 27 pass attempts. (McCoy didn't take a sack on seven.)
• I caught a lot of the Raiders-Chiefs game because I had Kansas City in Survivor. Besides Alex Smith pushing 300 yards despite no individual receiver getting more than 70, and the one who got 70 being a backup RB who did it on one play, the most noteworthy thing about this game was Dustin Colquitt's fake fake punt when he pinned the Raiders back at the six-yard line. I'm not sure whether he thought it might get blocked or it was pre-planned, but Colquitt caught the snap, pump faked a pass to freeze the defense, then stepped up in the pocket, so to speak, and punted it anyway. It was actually pretty bad-ass.
• Of all the odd-ball games, the Sunday night one was probably the most bizarre. The Eagles turned the ball over on the opening kickoff, went three and out twice and were down 21 – 0 before getting a first down. Then they came back and scored the next 24 points to take the lead, before being outscored 17-3 after that. And of course there was the trolling of the McCoy owners for good measure.
