Survivor: Backing the Saints at home

Let's take a look at this week's slate:

This is one of the more spread out slates you're likely to see this year. The Saints are the most popular, but at only 31 percent, and there are six teams with at least five percent of pools on them.

There's not much complex math necessary here. The Saints are pretty clearly the best equity play, and if you've used them, it's close between the Packers (more used, but slightly bigger favorites) and eight other teams with relatively low usage and similar chances to win. (It seem like 8.6 percent on the Eagles is a lot more than 0.8 percent on the 49ers, but if nine people or one person drop out of your 100-person pool, it's not going to affect your equity all that much.)

For that reason, this week (after the Saints) is largely a judgment call simply based on the team you think has the best chance to win. You can use the percentage-used numbers as a tiebreak if you're completely torn between two teams.

My Picks

1. New Orleans Saints

They're 1-3, but that win came in their only home game, and they host the Bucs this week. Mike Glennon gives Tampa a better chance, but Mike Evans is out, and I don't see them keeping up with the Saints. I give the Saints an 87-percent chance to win this game.

2. Denver Broncos

The Broncos get the tiebreak over the Packers due to their lower usage, and while the Cardinals are a tough opponent, I trust Denver's defense at home against Drew Stanton. I give the Broncos a 78 percent chance to win this game.

3. Green Bay Packers

They're slightly more used, but I like them at home against either a gimpy Teddy Bridgewater or Christian Ponder. The Vikings defense played well in New Orleans, which is the only thing that gives me slight pause, but I'm not sold yet. I give the Packers a 79-percent chance to win this game.

4. Philadelphia Eagles

They looked bad last week, but that was an odd game where their offense didn't see the field much in the first half. The Rams pass rush (it's been absent so far) worries me against a banged-up offensive line, but barring a disaster on that front, the Eagles should handle things at home. I give them a 75 percent chance to win this game.

Notable Omissions:

San Diego Chargers - This game makes me nervous. The Jets aren't good, but their front four are stout, and San Diego could be ripe for a letdown. Moreover, the line opened at 6.5, when it should have been closer to eight, and I have no idea why. I'm also concerned we might see Michael Vick, a player to whom it's hard to adjust, in the second half.

New York Giants - I think the Giants have turned the corner and should handle the Falcons who don't play well on the road, but two games is a small sample, and Matt Ryan and Julio Jones should make some plays.

Dallas Cowboys - The Cowboys have played well so far, but I'm a long way from trusting them against a non-doormat.

Detroit Lions - The Lions have been stout defensively this year, and especially so at home, so you'd think they'll handle a Kyle-Orton-led attack fairly easily. But the Bills are opportunistic on defense, have playmakers on offense, and Orton is actually an upgrade from the inaccurate EJ Manuel. Bottom line, the Lions might be good, but I'm not sold, and the Bills are not pushovers.

San Francisco 49ers - The Chiefs just blew out the Patriots and barely lost to Denver in Denver. The 49ers aren't good enough to trust against them.

Seattle Seahawks - They're not the same team on the road, and the Redskins might not be a doormat despite the beating they took at the hands of the Giants.