Underdog Picks NFL Week 1

This article is part of our NFL DFS Pick 'Em series.

Underdog Pick'Em: Week 1 Selections

Underdog has become one of the most popular fantasy platforms in the industry, primarily due to their massive best ball contests. However, they also have Pick 'em contests available once the regular season begins, and we'll provide a weekly article with between eight and 10 picks.

As a brief primer for new users, anywhere from three to eight selections on player props can be made. Payouts are as follows:

Before we jump into individual picks for Week 1, it's worth laying out some general guidelines. There are generally props for every game, so picking on the most extreme situations, either positive or negative is most advantageous. This includes:

• Projected pace of the game
• Concentrated carries/targets
• Efficient offenses
• Weather/dome games

As is the case in DFS, we can get some hints about these factors from spreads and game totals to give us each team's implied totals. It will also be important to know depth charts early on in the season and then player usage as the season progresses, and we'll be around to help breakdown all these factors and more.

Two more housekeeping items before we get to picks. For those who have yet to deposit on Underdog, take advantage of our Underdog promo code and use code ROTONFL to get a bonus match of up to $250 on your deposit.

Lastly, I'll reference our Pick 'em tool throughout the season, but the page is an excellent way to independently do research to make selections not mentioned in the article.

With that out of the way, let's jump into some Week 1 picks.

Higher

Justin Watson vs. Baltimore Ravens – over 13.5 receiving yards

There are multiple reasons to target Watson on Thursday night. The first and most obvious is the absence of Marquise Brown (shoulder), which should make Watson the favorite to be on the field for most three receiver sets. With Patrick Mahomes at quarterback, that's likely reason enough to take over on this prop. However, there's more. Xavier Worthy got a lot of helium late in draft season, but the reality is that we don't know exactly how much he'll be on the field, giving Watson another potential path to targets.

Finally, Baltimore lost a number of key members of its defensive unit from 2023. There's still plenty of talent but there could be some miscommunication in the secondary early.

Khalil Shakir vs. Arizona Cardinals – over 43.5 receiving yards

Most readers are probably sick of hearing that Shakir is the only wide receiver on Buffalo's current roster to have caught a pass from Josh Allen, but that does put him in a good position to start the season well. Furthermore, Curtis Samuel is back from a toe injury but missed a significant part of camp, costing him time to gain rapport with Allen. Finally, Keon Coleman is unproven in the pros. There's no guarantee Shakir will remain a consistent producer for the entirety of the season, but he has a good shot at leading the Bills wide receivers in yards in a matchup against one of the weakest secondaries in the league.

Pat Freiermuth at Atlanta Falcons – over 26.5 receiving yards

The Steelers failed attempt to land Brandon Aiyuk left them George Pickens and Pat Freiermuth as the only truly proven pass catchers in the offense. We also know that Arthur Smith likes to utilize his tight ends. To put a specific number to that, the Falcons targeted their tight ends 174 times in 2023, the third-highest number in the league. There's some danger the Steelers use a rotation at tight end (we saw that in the preseason with the starting unit on the field), but this is a relatively low bar to clear for Freiermuth.

Travis Etienne at Miami Dolphins – over 18.5 receiving yards

There has been a lot of chatter this offseason about the Jaguars cutting back on Etienne's workload, but that is most likely to result in his carry total dropping rather than his involvement in the passing game. Etienne finished seventh in the league in targets per game for running backs last season. This one lines up pretty cleanly on paper.

 Jaleel McLaughlin at Seattle Seahawks – over 12.5 receiving yards

The Broncos parted ways with Samaje Perine, which cleans up the some of the projection in the team's backfield. It's highly unlikely that Audric Estime will step in as a pass catcher, while that was an area that McLaughlin was quite involved last season. Denver heavily utilizing their backs as pass catchers has been a consistent storyline this offseason, so this prop may be at its lowest point of the entire season.  

Lower

Ja'Marr Chase vs. New England Patriots – under 87.5 receiving yards

Chase was back at practice Wednesday and the Bengals have since tried to downplay his absence by saying that he's taken care of himself while being away from the team and will be ready for Sunday's game. Even if that's true, which seems unlikely, this prop is set at a lofty number. We don't know exactly how New England will scheme its defense in the absence of Bill Belichick, but Jerod Mayo is from the same school of thought and the Patriots were famous for taking away opposing team's top options. The secondary is also the strength of the defensive unit, and Chase is likely to see a lot of Christian Gonzalez.  

Anthony Richardson vs. Houston Texans – under 275.5 passing + rushing yards

There's no doubt that Richardson is capable of explosive plays, but this is a lofty number. He only has a four-game sample as a pro, but he did not hit the over on this number in that sample. From a more macro perspective, there are still significant questions about Richardson's ability to pass the ball consistently. His rushing ability is a clear factor in this projection, but Houston has among the best defensive lines in the league, which should make rushing lanes more difficult to come by.

Chigoziem Okonkwo at Chicago Bears – under 6.65 fantasy points (half PPR scoring)

Okonkwo hasn't translated his athletic ability into production, and the Titans appear ready to move on. Josh Whyle is listed as a co-TE1 on the team's depth chart, and he'll cut into the target potential of Okonkwo even if the team plays a significant amount of 12 personnel. With the tight end role primarily to himself last season, Okonkwo surpassed this fantasy point total only twice.