Payne's Perspective: Talking NFL Draft

RotoWire's Kevin Payne and Mario Puig recently chatted over email about the upcoming NFL Draft and various and sundry things. Here's that exchange.

-----Original Message-----
From: Kevin Payne To: Mario Puig
Subject: NFL Draft

Hey Mario,

During this time of the NFL season it's kind of slow and I find there are three main events that occur: the Combine, the start of free agency and the NFL Draft. Out of everyone that works at RotoWire, few have their pulse on the college game like you, so I thought I'd throw out some questions I had. I also have a question about free agency and your Cowboys, but I'll save that for later.

If I remember correctly back in the fall we discussed on Twitter the debate between Kevin White and Amari Cooper. I've been a card carrying member of the White fan club for some time although I believe I conceded that Cooper was the better wide receiver. I was just a little surprised White didn't get enough credit during the college season despite what he did from a statistical standpoint. However, at the Combine White seems to have boosted is stock with his size (6-3, 215) and his speed (4.35 40-yard).

My question for you is how do you have the two ranked? It seems a natural fit for the Raiders to grab one of them at number four overall in the draft especially given their history of picking wide receivers in the early rounds. That would potentially give the Raiders a nice duo between Derek Carr and either wide receiver for years to come. I've also seen you (@NFLDraft_RW) tweet out a lot about Breshad Perriman, a name I would guess most outside of the Sunshine State haven't heard much about. His 40-yard times from Tuesday were impressive, though I always worry that times ran at Pro days or outside of the Combine aren't the most reliable.

Sticking with the wide receivers (for now, we'll get to the running backs soon enough), who is flying under your radar if fantasy owners are looking for a rookie lottery ticket and conversely who do you think is being over-hyped and will end up being a big disappointment in their rookie season? I did tease earlier that I had a question for you about free agency and your Cowboys and it's probably the direction you'd thought I'd go. What did you think about their decision to let DeMarco Murray walk? Was franchising Dez Bryant the right move and do you hope to see him locked up long-term with them? Are the current running backs on their roster good enough to man the backfield behind an offensive line you or I could probably average four yards per carry behind?

-----Original Message-----
From: Mario
To: Kevin
Subject: RE: NFL Draft

Good day Kevin,

I think I'm going to have to sort of flip the topic order upside down, if only to mention early on that the Cowboys are no longer my team. I actually renounced my faith something like five years ago, the change made whimsically after an epiphany alerted me to the fact that I actually kind of hated them. I think I told our colleague Tim Schuler that I'm a Bills fan now, but I probably wasn't serious.

But anyway, I think Dallas has handled its offseason reasonably well. There's no way I would pay up for DeMarco Murray, and Dez Bryant absolutely needed to be retained. I've always been a Murray fan and I don't mean to sell him short, but a talent advantage at running back just doesn't mean much these days. Once you get past "average" at running back, the actual winning utility gained by talent differential has a drastically diminishing return. Dez, on the other hand, is an elite player who offers unique production at a position with actual scarcity. Without him, Dallas is toast. But as long as Dallas gets Todd Gurley, Melvin Gordon, Jay Ajayi, Tevin Coleman or David Cobb, I wouldn't worry about the Dallas running game at all. Joseph Randle is a dubious candidate for a starting role, however, so they definitely need to add one of the draft's talents to pull off the win here.

DeVante Parker is actually my favorite receiver in this draft, but I'd probably rank White ahead of Cooper at this point. It really bugs me quite a bit that White is a one-year wonder -- Cooper has spectacular age-weighted production, in sharp contrast -- but I can't deny that White had a truly great Combine, and when you pair his stats with his athletic profile, there's an abundance of reason to expect him to stand out as a WR1 in the NFL. I think Cooper's ceiling is the more limited of the two since he's only 6-foot-1, making his comparison someone like Jeremy Maclin, whereas White's 6-foot-3, 215-pound dimensions give him a profile more like Javon Walker.

In any case, White seems like the heavy favorite to go fourth overall to the Raiders at the moment. The only comparable talents are at DE/OLB, and they just picked Khalil Mack last year. I expect White to go fourth, Cooper somewhere between seven and 12, and Parker shortly after Cooper. And then probably Breshad Perriman or Jaelen Strong shortly after Parker.

Perriman is certainly one of the most interesting prospects in this draft in light of his 4.2-range 40-yard dash. Even if we give him a pro day penalty of 0.1 seconds, that's still a time as low as 4.32 seconds. He's also the son of former Detroit wideout Brett Perriman, who was pretty dang good alongside Herman Moore and Johnnie Morton in the mid-90s. Breshad is quite a bit bigger at around 6-foot-2, 215 pounds, while Brett was only about 5-foot-9, 180, so Breshad has more red-zone upside than Brett ever did. I can't see the younger Perriman getting past Philadelphia at 20.

He's probably not "overlooked" per se, but I think the wideout prospect getting the most off-target evaluations is Devin Funchess. He doesn't have the short-area movement or the reliable hands necessary to project as a trustworthy over-the-middle possession target, but at 6-foot-4, 230 pounds with 4.5ish speed, a huge catch radius and explosive leaping ability, I love Funchess' chances of proving productive on deep passes and red-zone targets. One prominent outlet compared Funchess to Gavin Escobar. I don't normally flip tables, but I almost made an exception when I saw that. If you want a truly overlooked player I'd probably point toward Tyler Lockett, who for some reason gets written off as a special teams type despite a long record of wideout dominance at Kansas State.

Any top targets in mind for the Bills at the 50th pick?

-----Original Message-----
From: Kevin
To: Mario
Subject: Re: NFL Draft

You read my mind Super Mario.

With the 50th pick (and I hope Sammy Watkins lives up to the hype given what the Bills did) I've been preaching the Bills take Bryce Petty. He had a terrible Senior Bowl, but I'd argue he wasn't familiar with his receivers. Maybe the viewing of his bowl game, when he hit every receiver perfectly down field is etched in my head and I'm totally aware of the plus offense Baylor runs. Any quarterback the Bills take is set up to thrive given what they've done this offseason. I think you might be anti-Petty so talk me out of him if that's what you think.

Is there another quarterback my Bills or any other quarterback-hungry team should be looking at? You, and most other experts, have stated how deep this college class is as far as running backs go. So are there any quarterbacks we should be looking at floating under the radar? There seems to be a lot of raw talent but after Mariota and Winston there doesn't seem to be a third NFL quarterback ready to make an impact. Of course, it's more likely to take the field that someone is better than one of those two but who is it?

I loved the college playoff system this year and think things worked out for the best. Urban Meyer (who has no quarterbacks going forward ...) could walk me into a house fire and I'd probably follow. I'm always a fan of the underdog and the SEC got taken down a notch if you ask me. Continuing with the college ranks, who should be watching for next season that can make a future impact on the pro level? I think back to a few seasons ago and remember the Teddy Bridgewater coming out party when Louisville beat Florida in their stand alone Bowl game.

I also wanted to pick your brain on Chip Kelly. Evil genius or just crazy? I'm pretty sure there hasn't been a more eventful offseason than at One Eagles Drive. Will they sign Tim Tebow? Seriously, though, is Kelly going down the Pete Carroll path or the Steve Spurrier route in the NFL? Will you own any shares of Samuel Bradford this fantasy football season? I can buy into anyone who is the starting quarterback under Kelly as a top-10 option at the position.

Lastly, there are always draft-day surprises we never see coming. If I remember correctly, you predicted the RG3 deal for the Redskins. Mike Ditka isn't in the league anymore so I suppose that helps. Any big moves you see on the horizon, especially in the top-10? I know you've been working on a mock and I'd give that more attention than someone else's who, say, loves a quarterback that can thrown 60 yards from his knees ...

-----Original Message-----
From: Mario
To: Kevin
Subject: RE: NFL Draft

I'm a huge fan of Sammy Watkins, but I think that trade was a pretty awful idea. In the deepest receiver class ever you cough up a second first-round pick to acquire an asset that, due to poor quarterback play, the team won't even be in position to capitalize on? Sorry to be a bummer, but that was pretty gross.

I'm generally pretty skeptical of Bryce Petty, but I need to accept the fact that he won't fall out of the second round in a quarterback class this weak. His size/athleticism is similar to that of Blake Bortles, but his career trajectory makes me think of Brandon Weeden. I think it's safe to add that he's very tough -- he played through transverse process fractures in his back this year, just like Tony Romo. With that said, Petty's downfield accuracy was rather disappointing, and I think his relatively high number of missed open targets implies his YPA and completion percentage were rather artificial. It also drives me nuts that he didn't win a starting role at Baylor until he was 22.5 years old, making him a 24-year-old rookie. To put it another way: Petty lost a quarterback competition to non-prospect Nick Florence at the same age (21.5) that Brett Hundley started his third straight season in 2014. As you might have guessed, I prefer Hundley between the two, but I don't think most NFL people would agree with me.

I agree about the college playoff system -- I'd have to think even its architects were surprised at how well everything came together in 2014. The outcomes seemed dictated by merit, yet there was plenty of improbable drama thrown in as a bonus. If you're looking for the next (mostly unexpected) high NFL draft pick, take a look at California quarterback Jared Goff. He won a starting job as a true freshman in 2013, and since then he's thrown for 7,461 yards, 53 touchdowns and 17 interceptions in 24 games. Listed at 6-foot-4, 210 pounds, Goff should have the dimensions that the NFL looks for in pocket passers.

You might recall that I was a fairly boisterous Chip Kelly promoter a couple years ago, but even I'm having trouble rationalizing Philadelphia's behavior these days. I hated the Riley Cooper/Jeremy Maclin management a year ago, I don't like the DeMarco Murray contract, and I don't like the idea of trading draft picks for a quarterback playing on a one-year deal after consecutive seasons with ACL tears. If they sign Tebow, I'm flipping the table.

I really have no idea what to suggest on the subject of draft-day surprises. NFL people are constantly getting better at duping media figures, so there are very few source-based reports that are worth listening to. Basically, if it's not Jay Glazer saying it I'm assuming it's a lie. But as far as a non-obvious guess might go, I'll suggest the possibility of Chicago trading Jay Cutler and the seventh pick to Tennessee in order to pick Marcus Mariota second overall. It would give Ken Whisenhunt the strong-armed quarterback he wants, and it would put Cutler back in the state where he enjoyed his Vanderbilt glory days.