This article is part of our Survivor series.
Last week went pretty well for most Survivors, except for those who had the Bears and Giants. Chiefs backers lucked out. But luck is needed in this game.
In my pool, one participant lost on the Bears. Of the original 442, seven remain.
On to Week 11.
(You are encouraged to read here and here for the methodology behind our Survivor strategy.)
Ownership percentages below come from Officefootballpools.com. The Vegas Moneyline is the average of the matchup's two moneylines. Vegas odds are the percentage chance a team has at winning. Expected Loss is a team's percent-taken multiplied by its chance of losing. Home teams in CAPS.
| TEAM | OPPONENT | %TAKEN | VEGAS ML | VEGAS ODDS | EXPECTED LOSS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LIONS | Jaguars | 32.9% | 675 | 87.1% | 4.25 |
| DOLPHINS | Raiders | 30.4% | 355 | 78.0% | 6.68 |
| Texans | COWBOYS | 10.3% | 355 | 78.0% | 2.26 |
| Packers | BEARS | 8.1% | 252.5 | 71.6% | 2.30 |
| Vikings | TITANS | 6.5% | 225 | 69.2% | 2.00 |
| 49ERS | Seahawks | 6.1% | 270 | 73.0% | 1.65 |
| Rams | PATRIOTS | 3.1% | 202.5 | 66.9% | 1.02 |
| JETS | Colts | 0.7% | 172.5 | 63.3% | 0.26 |
| EAGLES | Commanders | 0.4% | 167.5 | 62.6% | 0.15 |
| SAINTS | Browns | 0.4% | 110 | 52.4% | 0.19 |
| BRONCOS | Falcons | 0.3% | 122.5 | 55.1% | 0.13 |
| CHARGERS | Bengals | 0.2% | 110 | 52.4% | 0.10 |
| Ravens | STEELERS | 0.1% | 160 | 61.5% | 0.04 |
| BILLS | Chiefs | 0.1% | 125 | 55.6% | 0.04 |
Home teams in CAPS
The Lions and Dolphins each have about 30 percent support this week. As such, there is no good pot-odds play.
Even though four teams have a bye this week, there are plenty of quality Survivor options. The top-6 teams all have Vegas odds of at least
Last week went pretty well for most Survivors, except for those who had the Bears and Giants. Chiefs backers lucked out. But luck is needed in this game.
In my pool, one participant lost on the Bears. Of the original 442, seven remain.
On to Week 11.
(You are encouraged to read here and here for the methodology behind our Survivor strategy.)
Ownership percentages below come from Officefootballpools.com. The Vegas Moneyline is the average of the matchup's two moneylines. Vegas odds are the percentage chance a team has at winning. Expected Loss is a team's percent-taken multiplied by its chance of losing. Home teams in CAPS.
| TEAM | OPPONENT | %TAKEN | VEGAS ML | VEGAS ODDS | EXPECTED LOSS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LIONS | Jaguars | 32.9% | 675 | 87.1% | 4.25 |
| DOLPHINS | Raiders | 30.4% | 355 | 78.0% | 6.68 |
| Texans | COWBOYS | 10.3% | 355 | 78.0% | 2.26 |
| Packers | BEARS | 8.1% | 252.5 | 71.6% | 2.30 |
| Vikings | TITANS | 6.5% | 225 | 69.2% | 2.00 |
| 49ERS | Seahawks | 6.1% | 270 | 73.0% | 1.65 |
| Rams | PATRIOTS | 3.1% | 202.5 | 66.9% | 1.02 |
| JETS | Colts | 0.7% | 172.5 | 63.3% | 0.26 |
| EAGLES | Commanders | 0.4% | 167.5 | 62.6% | 0.15 |
| SAINTS | Browns | 0.4% | 110 | 52.4% | 0.19 |
| BRONCOS | Falcons | 0.3% | 122.5 | 55.1% | 0.13 |
| CHARGERS | Bengals | 0.2% | 110 | 52.4% | 0.10 |
| Ravens | STEELERS | 0.1% | 160 | 61.5% | 0.04 |
| BILLS | Chiefs | 0.1% | 125 | 55.6% | 0.04 |
Home teams in CAPS
The Lions and Dolphins each have about 30 percent support this week. As such, there is no good pot-odds play.
Even though four teams have a bye this week, there are plenty of quality Survivor options. The top-6 teams all have Vegas odds of at least 70 percent, with the Lions all the way to 87 percent.
Consider who your competition has available before making your pick.
Picks below are in order of preference,
My Picks
Detroit Lions
The Lions are coming off huge back-to-back road wins. Could this week at home bring a letdown? Maybe. Human nature is human nature, and overlooking the Jaguars wouldn't be nuts. But that's where Dan Campbell comes in. More important, Trevor Lawrence could miss his second game in a row with a shoulder injury. The Lions might not roll, but they've proven the last two weeks that they have the intestinal fortitude to overcome obstacles.
Houston Texans
A bad offensive line and injuries to wide receivers have stunted C.J. Stroud and the Texans' offense. The Cowboys, though, are in a worse spot. Other than CeeDee Lamb, they have nothing on offense, and Lamb can't throw the ball to himself. Dallas' run defense is just as bad.
Miami Dolphins
As expected, Tua Tagovailoa's return has re-invigorated the Miami offense. In his three games back, the Dolphins have averaged 25.7 points, 10th in the league, after scoring 10.0 points per game — last in the league — in the four games he missed. And while they lost two of the last three, the combined point differential was four points. The Raiders have lost five in a row and are 1-4 on the road this year (their Week 2 win at Baltimore is the mystery of the season).
Green Bay Packers
The Bears fired offensive coordinator Shane Waldron this week, but is new OC Thomas Brown really the key to unlock an offense that has failed to score a touchdown on its last 23 drives? Brown was the Bears' passing game coordinator after serving as the Panthers' offensive coordinator last season. Heck of a resume. Anyway, the Packers had a bye week to prepare and have won 13 of their last 14 at Soldier Field.
Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings overcame three Sam Darnold interceptions last week to survive the Jaguars. The Titans' two wins this year came against a Tua-less Dolphins and the Patriots, by a field goal. They've lost by an average of 15 points and four of their seven losses have been by at least 10 points, with just one less than a touchdown. Even if the Vikings aren't up to their best, they should still get by the Titans.
San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers are coming off a big win last week at Tampa Bay in which they had to overcome three missed field goals. Christian McCaffrey returned, and after what felt like a warm-up game (even though he had 19 touches), he could be vintage CMC this week against a Seahawks defense that has struggled all season to stop the run. Seattle dumped another starting inside linebacker this week — its two offseason LB signings didn't make it to Week 11. The latest move probably will make as much difference as the first move, which is to say no difference at all. DK Metcalf is expected back this week, as is right tackle Abraham Lucas, and the Seahawks are coming off bye. All that should help their offense be more efficient, but there's still the matter of stopping McCaffrey, et al.
NOTABLE OMISSION:
Los Angeles Rams
The Rams are coming off an ugly loss Monday and are on a short week, which adds another hurdle to the long trip east. The Patriots have won two of three — granted, against the Jets and Bears — and at home could give the Rams a tougher game than expected. There are better Survivor options on the board than the Rams.
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