Streaming Defenses: Picking a Week 15 Defense

This article is part of our Streaming Defenses series.

Browns - Who is going to show up, the good Andy Dalton or the bad Andy Dalton? This season in eight of his 13 games he's thrown one touchdown or less and this is on top of the 13 interceptions he's thrown, which is third most in the league. The Browns meanwhile are a very good pass defense, ranking fourth in YPA (6.1) and first in interceptions per game (1.5). Much the way that Andrew Luck was forced into some bad decisions this past week, throwing two interceptions and completing less than half his passes, I think we'll see the bad Andy Dalton show up this week against the Browns. The last time these two teams played in Week 10, I think we all remember Dalton's Thursday night performance, where he completed only 10-of-33 passes for 86 yards with three interceptions and 2.0 passer rating. I don't know that he'll be that bad this time around, but the Browns clearly had him figured out last time and that was in Cincinnati. I would expect for WR A.J. Green to get his his though, as he's one of the best WRs in the league, as he showed once again this past week, torching the Steelers. As for the rest of the passing game, I'm not really sure where Dalton can go, as Mohamed Sanu's targets have started to fade (he hasn't had over 50 yards since Week 9), leaving TE Jermaine Gresham and RBs Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard as the main secondary options. This is really about Dalton though, as it's up to him to diagnose the defense and find the open man and when his TE and RBs are continually getting looks in the passing game, it's clear he's checking down. Getting the running game going is the key to beating the Browns, as they rank tied for 21st in YPC (4.4) this season, though that figure has jumped to just 3.6 YPC over the last three weeks, good for fourth best. Hill figures to be the main back and his 4.8 YPC should serve him well in the matchup. If the bad Dalton shows up again though, it could be tough sledding, as the Browns will crowd the box to stop the run. The only real concern in this game is the revenge factor from how badly the Browns beat the Bengals back in Week 10. And while that game was in Cincinnati, don't think the Bengals won't want to pull the same sort of thing on the Browns in their home stadium in Johnny Manziel's debut. Vegas has this over/under set at 44 with the line set at pick 'em, which puts this at about a 22-22 game. Facing the Bengals at home, the Browns defense/special teams has an ownership of 15.1 percent at ESPN and 30 percent at Yahoo.

Panthers - Seemingly out of nowhere the Panthers laid the smack down on the Saints this past week, holding Drew Brees to just 4.8 YPA and their ground game to just 92 yards. Maybe most impressive, they held Jimmy Graham to just three catches on 11 targets for 25 yards. This week they draw the 2-11 Bucs, who this past week showed yet again, they might have the worst running game in the league, as they averaged 1.9 YPC on 14 carries for 26 yards. For the season they average 3.7 YPC, but in the last three weeks that has fallen to a league low 2.7 YPC. They simply cannot get anything out of Doug Martin or Charles Sims, let alone any of the other backs we occasionally see get subbed in. This should help the Panthers, as they are tied for 21st in YPC (4.4), but have improved over the last three weeks to see that figure go down to 4.0 YPC. Still, the fact that the Bucs have three rushing TDs on the season from their RBs speaks to their lack of production. In the passing game, the Panthers defense is average, ranking 11th in YPA (6.7), tied for 18th in interceptions per game (0.8), and tied for 20th in sacks per game (2.2). The Bucs have been a below average passing unit this season and would be even worse, if it weren't for rookie WR Mike Evans, who has 10 TDs on the season to go with his 16.4 YPC. He should be a matchup nightmare for the Panthers, as he's a good five inches taller and 40 lbs bigger than any of their corners. The Panthers would be wise to roll most of their coverage at Evans and let Vincent Jackson beat them. Last week Jackson went off for 10 catches and 159 yards, but on the season he's been a below average bet for production, as he has only two TDs this season and has caught 50 percent of the targets thrown his way, which ranks 103rd in the league among WRs. And after Evans and Jackson, that's about it, as the Bucs have gotten very minimal production out of their TEs and RBs as pass catchers this season. I could see this game getting ugly, as neither defense shows up, but I think what will happen is neither offense will show up, as Panthers QB Cam Newton is out with a back injury. These two teams rank tied for 24th in the league in offensive yards per play (5.2), so I don't see this game getting away from either team at any point. Vegas has this over/under set at 42.5 with the Panthers favored by 6, which puts this at about a 24-18 game. Facing the Bucs at home, the Panthers defense/special teams has an ownership of 13.7 percent at ESPN and 35 percent at Yahoo.

Giants - Facing the 3-10 Redskins at home, the Giants have a nice matchup this week. Right now QB Colt McCoy has been limited in practice, as he deals with a neck injury that is not considered to be serious. If he cannot play, then we will likely see RG3 starting again, something that head coach Jay Gruden is clearly not fond of. Tough to blame him I suppose, as Griffin has looked like a shell of himself this season, as he's battle through injury. McCoy has had a couple of really nice performances this season, but this past week against STL, he got lit up for six sacks and two interceptions. The Giants aren't that good of a defense, but it's clear they're facing a wounded animal in the Redskins QB situation. The Giants rank 26th in YPA (7.3), but are tied for fifth in interceptions per game (1.2) and are tied for 10th in sacks per game (2.6), so at least they're good at creating pressure and making it pay off in turnovers. WR DeSean Jackson returned to practice Wednesday, after dealing with a leg injury and is expected to play this week. Outside of him, the Redskins haven't gotten much production from their WRs this season, as Pierre Garcon has just three TDs and is averaging a lowly 10.4 YPC, which ranks 89th in the league. Heck this past week, the team gave 85 year old Santana Moss five targets, after he had seen three targets in the previous 12 weeks combined. As for the run game, RB Alfred Morris is averaging 4.1 YPC, which is decent. The only problem is that he gets completely phased out of the game, every time the Redskins fall behind and are forced to throw the ball in hopes of getting back into the game. If they can keep this game relatively close, he should be a factor. If the Redskins have any sort of a gameplan though, they'll feature Morris heavily, as the Giants rank last in the league in YPC (4.9). Again though, if the Giants offense can get up early on the Redskins, they'll have no choice but to abandon the run. I'm not sure what to make of the 47 point over/under in this game, as both of these teams are pretty bad overall. The hope is that at home the Giants use that to their advantage and let the Redskins continue to free-fall, as they've only won one game on the road this season and that was on MNF. Vegas has this over/under set at 47 with the Giants favored by 6.5, which puts this at about a 27-20 game. Facing the Redskins at home, the Giants defense/special teams has an ownership of 37.7 percent at ESPN and 31 percent at Yahoo.

Jets - It's been two months since the Titans have won a football game; think about that for a minute. This past week they may have finally quit on their season for good, as they earned only 3.6 YPP against the Giants, in a 36-7 blowout. In the passing game, QB Zach Mettenberger is likely done for the season with a shoulder injury, leaving the team really no choice but to turn back to Jake Locker, who has a 5:7 TD:INT ratio on the season. For his career he has a 7.03 YPA, which is below league average, and a 57.6 percent completion rate, which flat out stinks, but isn't a surprise if you saw him in college. The Jets pass defense isn't much better, ranking 24th in YPA (7.3), 29th in interceptions per game (0.4), and 13th in sacks per game (2.5). The hope here is that Locker continues his mediocre play and options like TE Delanie Walker continue to be the focal part of the passing game. It's nothing against Walker, as he's had a great season, but he doesn't stretch the field. WR Kendall Wright is dealing with a hand injury and wasn't able to play in Week 14. There is some hope that he can return this week, as he practiced on Wednesday, but he's got a broken bone in his hand, so he might need to wear a splint, which might impair his ability to catch the ball. Without him this past week, the leading WR was Derek Hagan, who saw seven targets for six catches and 62 yards. Before that, Hagan had 10 targets on the season, so don't be surprised if he goes back into obscurity this week. As for the Titans run game, welcome to the abyss. Rookie Bishop Sankey has averaged 3.8 YPC with only one run over 20 yards, while veteran Shonn Greene averages 3.7 YPC and also has only one carry over 20 yards this season. If that wasn't bad enough, the Jets are excellent against the run, ranking tied for second in YPC (3.5), so don't expect the Titans get much, if anything started on the ground this week. The Titans really don't have much more than that on offense. If Wright can't go or his hand slows him down, this could be another tough week for the Titans offense, as they don't have many, if any, star talents they can lean on to carry them. Vegas has this over/under set at 42 with the Jets favored by 1.5, which puts this at about a 22-20 game. Facing the Titans on the road, the Jets defense/special teams has an ownership of 3.4 percent at ESPN and 3 percent at Yahoo.

Titans - As bad as the Titans have been on offense this season (see above), the Jets have been worse, much worse, as in tied for second to last in yards per play (4.8) worse. They've had to go back to QB Geno Smith, who was decent his past week against Minnesota with a 8.76 YPA, one touchdown, and one interception. Still, his numbers on the season are awful with a 6.2 YPA and a 8:12 TD:INT ratio. To make matters worse, WR Percy Harvin is dealing with a sprained ankle and did not practice on Wednesday. If he cannot play, the team will be back to Eric Decker as the main and really only pass weapon of note. If you're in a daily league, I could see Jeremy Kerley having a sneaky game, if Harvin is out, but even then, he has only one catch over 20 yards this season. Defensively the Titans rank 20th in YPA (7.0), 12th in interceptions per game (0.9), and 16th in sacks per game (2.4). As long as Geno Smith plays like he usually does, this game shouldn't get away from the Titans defensively. As for the ground game for the Jets, this is really where they can be effective controlling a game, as their offensive line is one of the better run blocking units in the league. RB Chris Ivory is averaging 4.4 YPC, while Chris Johnson is at 4.5 YPC, and even QB Geno Smith gives them an added element on the ground, and there's also WR Percy Harvin, when he's healthy. I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see the Jets run the ball close to 50 times this game, as they continue to feed Ivory and Johnson, who are far more dependable than the passing game. The Titans, who average 4.3 YPC on defense, should be perfectly content to let this play out, as running the ball constantly sets up long third downs, limits chunk yards plays in the passing game, and slows the game down, as the clock continues to run. This is exactly what happened in the Dolphins/Jets game in Week 13, where the Jets ran the ball 49 times for 277 yards, Geno Smith threw for 65 yards, and the Jets kept the game close throughout. It's a flawed game plan because at some point you have to rely on your QB to make a play and Smith just isn't talented enough to do that consistently, but if the Jets want to play like Georgia Tech does in college, by all means let them. It hurts the potential output from the Titans because the less the Jets pass, the less sacks, interceptions, and potential for turnovers there are, but at least it sets a good base for low scoring from the Jets. Vegas has this over/under set at 42 with the Jets favored by 1.5, which puts this at about a 22-20 game. Facing the Jets at home, the Titans defense/special teams has an ownership of 4.3 percent at ESPN and 14 percent at Yahoo.

Here are my rankings for this week, the next two weeks and the remainder of the season (this week included):

Finally, heres how the picks from the previous week faired:

Vikings (vs Jets) - 22 points allowed, 3 sacks, 1 interception, 1 fumble recovery, 1 TD

Jaguars (vs Texans) - 27 points allowed, 2 sacks

Browns (vs Colts) - 25 points allowed, 3 sacks, 2 interceptions, 2 fumble recoveries, 2 TDs

Bucs (@Lions) - 34 points allowed, 4 sacks, 1 fumble recovery

Jets (@ Vikings) - 24 points allowed, 3 sacks, 1 safety, 1 interception, 1 fumble recovery