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Betting Odds, Picks and Predictions for Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens
Two bitter AFC North rivals face off in a high-stakes late-season Saturday afternoon clash as the Steelers, minus their most explosive weapon, visit the Ravens. Pittsburgh will clinch the division crown with a win, but that figures to be an uphill battle on the road against a heavily favored Baltimore squad.
Read on as we break down odds and best bets.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens Betting Odds
*Best lines at time of writing listed
Moneyline: Steelers +275 (FanDuel Sportsbook)/ Ravens -300 (BetMGM Sportsbook)
Point spread: Steelers +7 (-115 BetRivers)/ Ravens -6.5 (-115 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Totals: Under 44.5 points (BetMGM Sportsbook)/ Over 44.5 points (FanDuel Sportsbook)
The spread for this game has firmly headed in one direction, that being toward the Ravens. It sat at -4 prior to Week 15 action, but the combination of a Steelers loss to the Eagles and Baltimore's dismantling of the Giants pushed the number to 6.5 by early this week. The confirmation that George Pickens will miss another game for the Steelers due to his hamstring injury nudges it as high as -7 entering the weekend.
The total has gone in the opposite direction. It was at 46.5 before Week 15, and that figure had already been bet down to 44.5 by the middle of this week. It subsequently saw a slight rise back to 45, but with Pickens' absence now confirmed, it's come back to 44.5 at multiple sportsbooks.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens Betting Picks
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The fact bettors have gone in heavily on the Ravens in this spot is essentially self-explanatory. Baltimore put together one of its signature offensive performances against a weak opponent in Week 15 that nevertheless moved the needle for the moment on public perception. Plus, the Steelers looked like a popgun offense without Pickens against what would have been a tough opponent under any circumstance, the Eagles.
How much carryover does each result have? The easier question involves Pittsburgh, which doesn't figure to have a major uptick in production in yet another game without their top wideout. Baltimore is already an elite defense against the run, allowing an NFL-low 78.5 rushing yards per home game and a microscopic 2.9 yards per carry to running backs overall. Therefore, when Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren likely find mostly rough sledding on the ground, the Steelers will eventually have to turn to the air.
That worked for many teams earlier in the season, but there's still bad news for Mike Tomlin's squad on that front. One, the majority of the Ravens' issues against the pass have come on the road – Baltimore is gives up an acceptable 228.5 passing yards per game and a stingy 63.9 percent completion rate at home. Additionally, the secondary has shown notable improvement of late with just 165 passing yards per game and a 58.7 percent completion rate allowed over the last three contests.
Meanwhile, it's certainly possible, even likely, that Lamar Jackson doesn't closely resemble the quarterback who threw five touchdown passes for a second time this season in Week 15. He also completed 84.0 percent of his passes for 290 yards and rushed for an additional 65. Jackson only has a 57.0 percent completion rate and a 5:8 TD:INT in his career against the Steelers.
Yet, with Derrick Henry, Zay Flowers, a legitimately viable No. 2 receiver in Rashod Bateman (assuming he plays through his questionable tag due to a foot injury) and what is now a true two-headed monster at tight end, Jackson may be primed to at least to improve on what his average performances against Pittsburgh.
Given the factors cited, I like the Under, both at its original number or inched up a bit without too much of a rise in price. Then, a same-game parlay that backs a Baltimore win and Henry finding the end zone after an extremely rare three-game drought is also in play.
Steelers at Ravens Best Bets
Alt. total Under 45.5 (-128 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
SGP: Ravens moneyline and Derrick Henry Anytime TD scorer (-120 on BetMGM Sportsbook)
Steelers @ Ravens Prediction
Ravens 21, Steelers 16
This looks like a defensive battle based on the projected total, and touchdowns could be particularly difficult to come by for a Steelers squad that doesn't have truly reliable wide receiver options outside of Pickens, even when factoring in Mike Williams. Conversely, even a full-strength Ravens offense typically has some trouble against Pittsburgh, so I'm predicting a close, low-scoring home win for Baltimore that denies their rival the division title for the moment.
