Saturday NFL DFS Breakdown: Week 16 Matchups

Saturday NFL DFS Breakdown: Week 16 Matchups

This article is part of our DFS NFL series.

Saturday features two NFL Games this week. Both are great matchups with the Chiefs playing host to the Texans and the Ravens taking on the Steelers. Let's dive into the DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel and highlight some players to consider at each position.

Quarterback

The big news for this slate is that Patrick Mahomes ($6,400 DK, $7,600 FD) will start for the Chiefs after injuring his ankle in Week 15. While he has produced some underwhelming stat lines this season, he is appealing in this matchup against the Texans. Houston has given up 27 passing touchdowns, tied for most in the league.

The other big-name quarterback for this slate is Lamar Jackson ($8,200 DK, $8,800 FD), but he is a bit risky. The Steelers have nearly as many interceptions (15) as they have allowed touchdown passes (16). When these two teams met in Week 11, Jackson threw for 207 yards, one touchdown and one interception, while also rushing for 46 yards.

Also struggling in that first meeting was Russell Wilson ($5,700 DK, $7,400 FD), who threw for 205 yards, no touchdowns and one interception. With his top wide receiver George Pickens (hamstring) out, it's difficult to feel good about rolling with Wilson in DFS. It's also difficult to have much confidence in C.J. Stroud ($6,000 DK, $7,200 FD), who has seven touchdown passes in his last eight games. He has reached 300 passing yards in a game just twice this season. Considering his salary and the matchup, Mahomes might be the best of the bunch at quarterback.

Running Back

Rushing yards might be difficult to come by in both games. The Ravens, Chiefs, Steelers and Texans rank top 10 in the league in fewest rushing yards allowed per game. The Ravens, Chiefs and Steelers are top 4. 

Derrick Henry ($8,000 DK, $9,000 FD) provides the highest floor among the running backs. He has averaged 5.8 yards per carry this season and already has 13 rushing touchdowns. The last time he faced the Steelers, he turned 13 carries into 65 yards and a touchdown. A hefty workload could also be on the horizon for Joe Mixon ($7,800 DK, $8,600 FD), who has received at least 20 carries in a game seven times for the Texans. He also has 11 rushing touchdowns.

Henry and Mixon both come with hefty salaries. Another interesting player with a cheaper salary to consider is Najee Harris ($5,700 DK, $6,600 FD). He only had six carries against the Eagles last week, which was rare for him. Previously, he had amassed at least 16 carries in seven consecutive games. When he took on the Steelers, he had 18 carries for 63 yards, while also catching four passes for 30 yards. If he can duplicate that kind of volume, he could provide value.

Wide Receiver

The clear top WR option is Nico Collins ($8,100 DK, $9,000 FD). While he only had four receptions for 17 yards last week, two of his catches were touchdowns. Despite playing in just nine games this season, he has six touchdowns. As good as the Chiefs defense has been, the Texans should still target Collins early and often.

The rest of the receiving options for this slate all come with some risk. Given the number of touchdown passes that the Texans have allowed, DeAndre Hopkins ($5,300 DK, $6,500 FD) is worth considering. He has received five red-zone targets in his last four games, coming away with two touchdowns. He was also targeted at least six times in each of those games.

Since Pickens is out, it might be worth taking a chance on a wide receiver for the Steelers. They have cheap salaries and the Ravens have given up the fourth-most receptions to wide receivers in the league. Calvin Austin III ($3,800 DK, $5,500 FD) caught all five of his targets for 65 yards last week, marking his fourth game of the season with at least 54 receiving yards. Two of those performances have come in his last four games. Mike Williams ($3,700 DK, $5,100 FD) is a big name but has totaled just 32 snaps the last two weeks despite Pickens being out. The other possible dart on the Steelers is Van Jefferson ($3,300 DK, $4,700 FD), who has been on the field a lot lately and has an average target depth of 12.2 yards this season.

Tight End

The Chiefs have been smoked by tight ends this season. They have allowed the most receiving yards and the second-most receptions to the position in the league. That could make Dalton Schultz ($3,400 DK, $5,100 FD) worth the risk at his cheap salary. He does have six games this season in which he has received at least six targets.

Travis Kelce ($5,600 DK, $6,500 FD) hasn't scored a touchdown since Week 10 and hasn't surpassed 68 receiving yards since Week 9. That might make it difficult to justify his salary. Touchdowns haven't been a problem for Mark Andrews ($4,300 DK, $6,000 FD), who has found his way into the end zone in seven of the last nine games for the Ravens. Against the Steelers, though, he was limited to two catches for 22 yards in Week 11.

With the Steelers so thin at wide receiver, Pat Freiermuth ($3,900 DK, $5,500 FD) is also a viable option. He has recorded a touchdown reception in three consecutive games. In two of the last three games, he has received at least six targets.

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Mike Barner plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel: mbarner, DraftKings: mbarner51.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Mike Barner
Mike started covering fantasy sports in 2007, joining RotoWire in 2010. In 2018, he was a finalist for the FSWA Basketball Writer of the Year award. Mike also won the 2022-23 FSGA NBA Experts Champions league. In addition to RotoWire, Mike has written for Sportsline, Sports Illustrated, DK Live, RealTime Fantasy Sports, Lineup Lab and KFFL.com.
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