This article is part of our NFL Offseason Watch series.
Movement has been slower at quarterback than anywhere else, with only the Texans making an aggressive move to upgrade at the most important position through the first week of the league year. There are still five teams – the 49ers, Browns, Broncos, Jets and Rams – that have a high degree of uncertainty about who will enter training camp as their No. 1 signal-caller, and Ryan Fitzpatrick is the only starting-caliber quarterback without a contract (as of Wed., March 16).
Notable Acquisitions
Brock Osweiler, Houston Texans (four-year, $72 million contract)
A late second-round draft pick back in 2012, Osweiler was mostly just known for being the NFL's tallest quarterback until he finally got a chance to play in 2015, making eight appearances in place of an injured Peyton Manning. The Texans clearly believe Osweiler has untapped upside, as his performance last season wasn't nearly good enough to justify a contract that includes $37 million in guaranteed money through the first two seasons, according to USA Today.
Despite his mediocre 2015 performance, Osweiler could emerge as a low-end QB1 while playing in a Bill O'Brien offense that actually made Brian Hoyer look pretty decent. Even if the Texans' evaluation of Osweiler is off base, the former Bronco should at least provide a small upgrade over Hoyer for a team that had 4,079 passing yards and 29 passing touchdowns last season.
Chase Daniel, Philadelphia Eagles (three-year, $21 million contract)
New head coach Doug Pederson has said all the
Movement has been slower at quarterback than anywhere else, with only the Texans making an aggressive move to upgrade at the most important position through the first week of the league year. There are still five teams – the 49ers, Browns, Broncos, Jets and Rams – that have a high degree of uncertainty about who will enter training camp as their No. 1 signal-caller, and Ryan Fitzpatrick is the only starting-caliber quarterback without a contract (as of Wed., March 16).
Notable Acquisitions
Brock Osweiler, Houston Texans (four-year, $72 million contract)
A late second-round draft pick back in 2012, Osweiler was mostly just known for being the NFL's tallest quarterback until he finally got a chance to play in 2015, making eight appearances in place of an injured Peyton Manning. The Texans clearly believe Osweiler has untapped upside, as his performance last season wasn't nearly good enough to justify a contract that includes $37 million in guaranteed money through the first two seasons, according to USA Today.
Despite his mediocre 2015 performance, Osweiler could emerge as a low-end QB1 while playing in a Bill O'Brien offense that actually made Brian Hoyer look pretty decent. Even if the Texans' evaluation of Osweiler is off base, the former Bronco should at least provide a small upgrade over Hoyer for a team that had 4,079 passing yards and 29 passing touchdowns last season.
Chase Daniel, Philadelphia Eagles (three-year, $21 million contract)
New head coach Doug Pederson has said all the right things about Sam Bradford, who just last week signed a two-year, $35 million extension that reportedly includes at least $20 million in guarantees. Of course, actions speak louder than words in the NFL, and the Eagles probably wouldn't have given Daniel this kind of contract if they were truly confident that Bradford is their QB of the future.
Given that Pederson and Daniel spent the last three years together in Kansas City, it's fair to assume that the 29-year-old will have a leg up on Bradford when it comes to learning the offense, though Bradford still has a massive edge in experience with Daniel having just 77 career pass attempts to his name. Bradford is the clear favorite to start, but with Chip Kelly's fast-paced offense headed to San Francisco, there's little reason to believe that any Philly quarterback will crack the top-15 at the position. Even a Zach Ertz fanboy like myself is forced to acknowledge that this team has an underwhelming group of pass catchers, barring a massive year-two leap from Nelson Agholor (don't count on it).
What's Left
Ryan Fitzpatrick, Free Agent
A reunion with the Jets makes too much sense not to happen, but there is perhaps some chance the Broncos will get desperate if they aren't able to work out a trade for Colin Kaepernick. It still seems very likely that Fitzpatrick ends up back in New York, where he could again find himself on the QB1 borderline while playing in a spread attack with the excellent wideout duo of Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker.
Of course, a move to Denver wouldn't necessarily kill Fitzmagic's value, as the Broncos arguably have an even better duo in the form of Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders. Granted, the Broncos presumably want to win with defense and a strong running game, whereas Gang Green seems pretty committed to spreading things out and chucking it around. The decision to swap out Chris Ivory for Matt Forte also bodes well for Fitzpatrick's fantasy value in New York.
Colin Kaepernick, San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers may or may not want to keep him. The Broncos reportedly want to trade for him. He maybe prefers Cleveland to Denver (huh?) because he wants to play for Browns head coach Hue Jackson. Even the Jets could possibly get involved if things don't work out with Fitzpatrick.
There have been too many rumors to keep track of them all, with Kaepernick's contract situation and health status adding further complexity to a situation that would already be complicated enough. $11.9 million of his 2016 salary becomes guaranteed if he is still on the San Francisco roster by April 1, which would likely provide us with a cut-off date, except that Kaepernick may not be able to pass a physical after having surgery on his left shoulder, right thumb and left knee in November/December.
His departure from San Francisco seemed like a foregone conclusion just a few months ago, but that was before the 49ers brought in Chip Kelly and his shotgun-heavy offense. The scheme could potentially help Kaeperick turn his career around, whereas a team like the Broncos offers a far superior supporting cast but would likely force the 28-year-old quarterback into an odd fit in Gary Kubiak's offense.
As enticing as the Thomas-Sanders wideout duo in Denver may seem, I actually think Kelly's fast-paced, shotgun-centric scheme would provide Kaep's best bet for a return to fantasy relevance.
Brian Hoyer, Houston Texans
Though Hoyer has a reasonable contract for a backup quarterback, the Texans reportedly want to trade him before the season, perhaps hoping that a desperate team could be forced to overpay.
Realistically, Hoyer is only a fit as a potential starter for the Broncos or Jets, as the rebuilding 49ers and Browns have no incentive to add a mediocre veteran. If the Broncos don't get Fitzpatrick or Kaepernick, they may be faced with the reality that Hoyer is their best remaining option.
In any case, Hoyer is highly unlikely to warrant fantasy consideration outside of deep/two-quarterback formats, even though he'd have nice supporting casts in either New York or Denver.
Other Situations to Watch
Despite re-signing Nick Foles and Case Keenum on sizable contracts, the Rams will probably consider moving up in the draft for Carson Wentz or Jared Goff.
The Browns, though rumored to be interested in Kaepernick, still seem most likely to address their need at quarterback with Wentz or Goff at No. 2 overall in the draft.
Robert Griffin III will still probably have to settle for a backup job, but he's arguably the best unsigned quarterback besides Fitzpatrick, as the market otherwise consists of guys like Bruce Gradkowski, Josh Johnson and Charlie Whitehurst. Now you see why Kaepernick is suddenly such a hot commodity…
