Payne's Perspective: Super Bowl Wagers

Welcome back for another year of Super Bowl Wagers. A lot has happened in the world of gambling in the last year, with many states legalizing sports betting, including mobile wagering. 

Take care to look at all the props between the two big sites (DraftKings and FanDuel). Prop numbers might differ, but the juice likely will make up for it — e.g., Tyreek Hill over/under yards receiving is 94.5 (-110) vs. 92.5 (-125). Make sure to pay attention because both sides will be offering "Odds Boosts" in the way of parlays and other lopsided wagers that are worth taking advantage of.

Game

Chiefs to Win (-159, DK)

Both sites have this line as of Friday morning, but FD has the odds at -164. There's a little voice in my head reminding me that the offensive line for Kansas City is banged up, but I can't bet against Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes. If I take the points, the odds are -113, so the difference in the vig doesn't matter much to me. I usually never take the favorite in the Super Bowl — this an exception I believe in. Also, while this totally doesn't mean anything, I feel like a lot of champions in sports were the chalky favorites, as the Chiefs are.

Over 55.5 Points (-115, FD)

I think it's worth the slightly added juice to go from 56 (DK) to 55.5. Taking the over is always fun as the average fan definitely roots for a high-scoring game over a defensive battle. The other advantage is that once the over hits, it's done — you can't take points off the board. FanDuel also offers a parlay to take both the Chiefs and the over for +200.

Buccaneers Penalty Yards Over 39.5 (-135, FD)

While the refs seemed to have swallowed their whistles during the playoffs, is it tough to see a couple of five-yard penalties and a substantial defensive holding penalty on the Bucs? I think this is an easy over.

MVP Antonio Brown (+6000, DK)

I realize that Mike Evans or Chris Godwin have a slightly better chance of beating out Brown, but I like these odds much better. Brown's Week 17 line (15-11-138-2) shows his upside, and putting that up Sunday would make it hard to pass him over should the Buccaneers win.

Quarterback

Patrick Mahomes Over 400 Passing Yards (+370, FD)

I'm worried about the offensive line and it might be wet (60 percent chance of rain mid-day, though the field presumably will be covered), but with two weeks to prepare the Chiefs should have a plan to protect Mahomes. Perhaps surprisingly, Mahomes has surpassed 400 passing yards just twice this season, but even if the Chiefs get a big lead, they won't put their foot off the gas in this game.

Tom Brady Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-230, DK)

I hate laying these odds, and while I think the Chiefs win and cover it's tough to ignore how good Brady has been in this category. Quick — entering Sunday, how many consecutive games has he hit this prop? If you said six, seven or eight, you'd be wrong. The same with nine. He has 10 in a row with this over, something Patrick Mahomes has done in only four of his last six.

Running Backs

Clyde Edwards-Helaire Over 30.5 Rushing Yards (-112, DK)

This one is going to be way under or way over. I'm backing the latter, as CEH should get double-digit carries and  average more than three yards a carry. While he only had six carries against the Bills in the AFC championship, it was his first game back from injury and he had at least 11 carries in the four games before getting hurt. 

Buccaneers Under 92.5 Rushing Yards (-125, FD)

I'm not a huge Leonard Fournette fan and if the game script goes to plan, it'll be the passing attack that wins this game. If Tampa Bay get behind, look for it to abandon the run.

Leonard Fournette Under 78.5 Rushing and Receiving Yards (-112, DK)

The over/under for his rushing yards is 48.5, so it seems highly unlikely he gets more than 30 yards receiving.  I expect Ronald Jones to outgain him.

Wide Receivers

Sammy Watkins Over 36.5 Receiving Yards (-106, DK)

This might be my favorite prop of the week. I've done well picking overs on third wide receivers in the Super Bowl over the years, and Watkins is my guy this year. He's already been bet down a bit from his -112 mark, and that he hasn't played in three games makes me think this mark should be lower. However, Vegas seems to be tempting people into a sucker bet. Wait as long as possible to bet this as the odds might get even better. I like him to score as well at +260.

Antonio Brown Over 41.5 Receiving Yards (-110, FD)

Brown has a ton of upside even as the Bucs' third wide receiver. This number seems like a trap given that he's only had 10 receiving yards in the divisional round. However, he's healthier now and topped this mark in four of his five games before then. 

Tight Ends

Travis Kelce Under 24.5 Fantasy Points (-112, DK)

First, if you like the over on this, bet the anytime touchdown (-175) for Kelce as well. Every time this season Kelce has hit this over (eight times), only once has he not scored. However, stopping Kelce should be a focal point of the Bucs, and and this is a big number. He can go 10-144 and this prop will still be the under. Even 9-90-1 line is still under 24.5 fantasy points.

Cameron Brate Over 29.5 Receiving Yards (-112, DK)

Everyone seems to be focusing on Rob Gronkowski and Travis Kelce; Brate seems like an afterthought. Brate has 16 targets in the three playoffs games and has hit the over twice in those games. The Chiefs are 25th in defending the tight ends, and while Brate has a back injury, he is expected to play. In the event he's ruled out, run to FD and get Tanner Hudson anytime TD at +2300.

Good luck this Sunday and let me know in the comments section if there are any wagers you like this weekend not mentioned above.