Payne's Perspective: Super Bowl Props

Welcome back for my yearly sport betting column for the Super Bowl. As I've done every year over the last decade or so, I'll highlight the wagers and prop bets that like or find interesting this year.

I'll start with the disclaimer I do every year: these are for fun – don't go and bet the next three months' mortgage on any of these. However, they do add some fun to the game if you play them legally and they make the game more interesting if you don't have a dog in the fight.

For the record, I didn't have a "best bet" last year but led with the Eagles +4.5 and Chris Hogan over 35.5 receiving yards (he had 128, I did mention this was probably the bet I like best). Here's last year's article and picks.


WAGERS TO CONSIDER

Los Angeles Rams +3

I should have taken the Eagles money line last year (hindsight is 50/50) and I'm probably making a minor mistake by not doing so now, though the Rams are only +125. This game will be a matter of whether the Rams can stop the Patriots' running attack, which has been excellent during the playoffs. I think the Rams' secondary can hold the passing attack enough that Brady doesn't kill it and there are enough playmakers (Aqib Talib, Marcus Peters, Aaron Donald) on the Rams' side of the ball to make a big play or two. My biggest fear in making this wager is Sean McVay won't go for the jugular if he needs to (a la Doug Pederson last year). McVay in the NFC championship game could have gone for the lead with five minutes left with fourth quarter and a foot from the Saints goal line and did not. You're not going to beat the Patriots making decisions like that. I also liked that the initial line that came out was the Rams -1, so I'm getting some value in the line moving four points.

UNDER 56.5

The last two Super Bowls the Patriots played in totaled 74 and 62 points, so it seems like Vegas wants people to take the over. Throw in the Patriots just had a game with 68 points. and the majority of wagers might be on the over due to recency bias. I'll take the contrarian play as a result and go under. Using some logic, I'd guess both teams try to establish the run and control the clock. I'm not in love totally with this pick, but it's what I would take between the two choices.

TEAM PROP BETS

Patriots rushing yards OVER 128.5 (Even)

This one might be a sucker bet as New England has surpassed that number in each of its last four games. Heck, Sony Michel against the Chiefs had 129 rushing yards by himself (albeit an overtime game). Throw in that during the regular season the Rams gave up 5.1 yards per carry, the most in the league. The Patriots have gotten to this point by running the ball, and it's hard to see them changing their game plan.

Players with a passing attempt OVER 2.5 (-105)

There are good candidates on both sides of the ball for this to go over, including Julian Edelman and Johnny Hekker. But Hekker likely won't try one after successfully completing a pass against the Saints; the Patriots will be looking for that every time he's on the field. Edelman is more likely to attempt a pass on some type of reverse throw/run option. He attempted two successful passes this season and attempted one in last year's Super Bowl. Also, if either quarterback is injured for even a short time we could see Sean Mannion or Brian Hoyer attempt a pass.

Combined yardage of field goals of both kickers OVER 122.5 (-105)

Both kickers in this game are top 5 in the league and either is more than capable of doing this on their own, let alone combining the two. Greg Zuerlein, for example, had 165 total yard in field goals in the NFC championship game, easily making the over by himself. These are two of the best kickers in the league and weather won't play a factor.

Either Team scores on a 2-point conversion – YES +210

So this one took some research. From 1998-2009 there was not a successful two-point conversion in the Super Bowl, though there were seven attempts. From 2010-18 there were six successful attempts in 10 tries with a successful attempt in five of the nine games. There was at least one attempt in eight of the nine games (usually late in the game, not surprisingly), so there's a likely chance we see at least one attempt this year. If there's a correlation of the game being the Super Bowl and two-point conversions, the success rate of more than 50 percent in the last nine years coupled with getting more than two to one on your money suggests the math is in favor of taking "YES."

Anytime touchdowns scorer: Both YES - Rams D/ST +650, Patriots D/ST +650

You can find a prop "will there be a defensive or special teams TD?" and bet "Yes" for +160. Or you can bet both Rams and Patriots D/ST at +650 each. The math is pretty simple. If you put $20 on the "Yes" at +160 and it hits, you collect your $20 back plus another $32 for a grand total of $52. Or if you take your $20 and put $10 on each defense/ST and one hits you will get back $65 plus your original $10 for a total of $75 even with losing the other $10. This is where it gets interesting. It's a long shot but what if both teams defense/ST score a touchdown? You'll pocket your original $20 and plus another $130 for a total of $150. So there's the upside of ending up with $150 or $52 depending on which path you take. While this looks obvious, people will still take the "will there be a defensive or special team touchdown" at $160. Both of these wagers are offered at the FanDuel Sportsbook.

The other route to take here is to bet "NO," as it's possible to make guaranteed money hedging the bet finding middling odds. That can be explained in this blog.

PLAYER PROP BETS

Cordarrelle Patterson receiving yards OVER 12.5 (-130)

I like this type of wager because all it takes is one catch and you can win. This is a prop that should be shopped around as it's 12.5-14.5 depending on which site/sportsbook you use. Personally, I'd rather pay the extra vig than sacrifice a couple yards so this was the line I chose. Patterson has at least two targets in six of his last seven games and has gone over 12.5 receiving yards in four of his last six. He narrowly missed a long touchdown catch against the Chiefs and it seems like the Patriots should be able to get him on a linebacker coming out of the backfield on a wheel route or something similar.

James White's longest run OVER 5.5 yards (-112)

This is interesting because in the divisional round White didn't get a carry, likely due to hauling in 15 passes. However, in 18 games this season he had a carry over 5.5 yards 13 times for a 72 percent success rate. Again, the Rams were not good against the run this season, making this a good matchup for White and the running game.

Julian Edelman UNDER 84.5 receiving yards (-105)

Edelman has surpassed this mark in each of his last two games, recording 96 and 151 receiving yards. However, over the span of those two games he caught 13 of 16 targets (81 percent), a much higher percentage than his overall 68.5 percent he had this season. I also think Edelman sees a lot of Aqib Talib, and Talib's physical style of play should be enough to mess up the timing between Brady and Edelman on the short and intermediate crossing routes.

Robert Woods longest reception OVER 22.5 yards (-118)

Woods has a reception of at least 16 yards in every game this season, a pretty incredible stat. He has a reception of 20 or more yards in 13 of his 18 games, showing he runs a lot of deeper routes. If there's any problem it is that it's tough to know who Stephon Gilmore will shadow in this game between Woods and Cooks. Woods has gotten eight and 11 targets in the two playoff games so a similar large number can be expected again Sunday.

C.J. Anderson rushing yards OVER 41.5 yards

Anderson has stayed busy despite the return of Todd Gurley during the playoffs with 44 and 123 rushing yards in both games. While Gurley should be healthier for this game and therefore garner a bigger workload, it's reasonable to expect Anderson to get 10-12 carries at least. Given his offensive line he should be able to eclipse this and the Rams may come in with the game plan to throw a big dose of Gurley and Anderson to win this one.

FUN PROP BETS

Will Maroon 5 Play "Sweet Victory" at halftime as a SpongeBob SquarePants tribute? YES -220

OK, this is probably my favorite prop best and closest bet I see as a lock (granted, it's -220). For those who don't know, this is a reference to an early SpongBob episode ("Band Geeks") where Squidward was trying to impress his arch-rival. The reason I like the "YES" is that there was a petition with more than a million signatures gathered last year for "Sweet Victory" to be played at the Super Bowl and in a trailer for their performance, Maroon 5 tweeted out a picture of SpongeBob. Oh, and the creator of SpongeBob – Stephen Hillenburg - passed away in November.

Will Billy McFarland be caught selling counterfeit tickets to the Super Bowl? NO -10000

I thought this was an interesting one to mention and the odds are so ridiculous it's not worth it to waste any money. In case you don't know who he is and don't want to do a quick search, McFarland masterminded the Fyre (pronounced Fire) Music Festival which failed and he was convicted for wire fraud of more than $26 million. He was sentenced to six years in prison and while out on bail was charged with selling fraudulent tickets to various social events. I'm thinking it takes some cajones to try commit fraud by selling fake tickets WHILE OUT ON BAIL for committing wire fraud. He's in jail now, so it's going to be hard for him to sell fake Super Bowl tickets, though I'm unaware of how much access he has to the Internet while in prison. There were two documentaries made about the failed Fyre festival, one is on Netflix while the other is on Hulu; I thought the one on Nexflix was very interesting. McFarland has to be charged by Feb. 28 for "Yes" to hit.

When the winning team visits the White House, it will be served Fast Food +225, *ANY OTHER FOOD -310*

There was much made about the food served when the Clemson football team visited, and it's hard to imagine the White House will choose to serve the same food to grown men. Part of the justification seemed to be that college kids liked fast food. Another reason was there was reduced staff at the White House since the visit occurred during the shutdown, and it's unlikely the winning football team will visit during another shutdown (I think/hope).

Will a fan run onto the field during the game? YES +500

A real man would put his life savings on "YES," buy a ticket, fly to Atlanta and run onto the field during the game to secure this bet. With his winnings he then gets the best lawyer to represent him and likely gets off with probation. Wash, rinse and repeat next year if the odds remain this high. If you're a real man. Or woman. Let me know if you do this ahead of time as well.

Jared Goff will throw for more yards than Manny Machado's next contract in millions YES (-120)

The over/under for Goff's throwing yards is 282.5 and I find it hard to believe Machado will land a contract for more than that. It's possible Machado signs something less than a seven or eight-year deal and the number could be eclipsed by Goff by halftime. Even if Machado lands the big contract Goff could still beat the number; he's thrown for 339 yards ($339 million doing some quick bet math) six or more times this season.

Distance of the longest penalty of the game OVER 15.5 yards (+115)


Normally in these high-stakes games the referees try to swallow their whistles and let the players decide the game. However, given the events in New Orleans I don't think the zebras will hesitate to call defensive pass interference downfield. In fact, after Nickell Robey-Smith's trash talk this week and his play in the NFC title game, I'd guess the Patriots are smart enough to target him after he got away with a potential game-changing non-call.

This is the piece I love doing every year (not sure how long it's been on RotoWire but It's been a while). I hope you've enjoyed it and again, don't go nuts on any wager I've suggested. Rather, use this as a tool if you were on the fence to bet something or to go out and seek a wager. Have fun this Sunday.