This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
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NFL Odds Changes And Line Moves
The goal of this article is to look at the key line moves for the week and what they mean in terms of betting. Key numbers in the NFL to watch for are 3, 7, 6, 14, and 10. When a line crosses through one of these, it warrants significant attention.
On the totals side, the key numbers are 41, 43, 37, 44, 51, 33, 47.
NFL Week 16 Odds (Opening, Current)
- Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers -3.5 O/U 45.0 (Chargers -3.0 O/U 42.5)
- Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs -4.5 O/U 47.0 (Texans -2.5 O/U 40.0)
- Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens -6.0 O/U 46.0 (Ravens -6.0 O/U 45.0)
- Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals -3.5 O/U 46.5 (Bengals -7.0 O/U 48.0)
- New York Giants at Atlanta Falcons -4.5 O/U 44.5 (Falcons -8.5 O/U 41.0)
- Arizona Cardinals -1.0 at Carolina Panthers O/U 45.5 (Cardinals -4.0 O/U 47.0)
- Detroit Lions -2.0 at Chicago Bears O/U 48.0 (Lions -6.5 O/U 48.0)
- Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts -3.5 O/U 44.5 (Colts -4.5 O/U 42.5)
- Los Angeles Rams at New York Jets -3.0 O/U 47.5 (Rams -3.5 O/U 46.5)
- Philadelphia Eagles -2.5 at Washington Commanders O/U 46.5 (Eagles -3.5 O/U 45.5)
- Minnesota Vikings at Seattle Seahawks -2.0 O/U 45.5 (Vikings -3.5 O/U 43.5)
- New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills -7.5 O/U 44.5 (Bills -14.0 O/U 46.5)
- Jacksonville Jaguars -1.0 at Las Vegas Raiders O/U 46.5 (Jaguars -1.0 O/U 39.0)
- San Francisco 49ers -1.0 at Miami Dolphins O/U 49.0 (Dolphins -1.5 O/U 46.0)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys -4.0 O/U 46.5 (Bucs -4.0 O/U 49.5)
- New Orleans Saints at Green Bay Packers -5.0 O/U 45.0 (Packers -13.5 O/U 42.0)
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NFL Week 16 Key Injury News
QB - Patrick Mahomes (KC), Geno Smith (SEA), Derek Carr (NO), Tommy DeVito (NYG)
RB - David Montgomery (DET), Nick Chubb (CLE), Alvin Kamara (NO), Kenneth Walker (SEA)
WR - Xavier Legette (CAR), Alec Pierce (IND)
NFL Week 16 Odds Observations
- The highest spread is Bills/Patriots -14.0; the lowest spread is Jaguars/Raiders -1.0
- The highest total game is Cowboys/Bucs 49.5 ; the lowest total is Jaguars/Raiders 39.5
- There are 8 road favorites in Week 16
- The five highest team totals are Bills, Bengals, Lions, Bucs, Packers
- The five lowest team totals are Saints, Patriots, Giants, Seahawks, Titans
- Weather will start to play a factor in games
- Browns/Bengals (32 degrees)
- Lions/Bears (28 degrees)
- Eagles/Commanders (32 degrees)
- Patriots/Bills (12 degrees)
- Rams/Jets (25 degrees)
- Saints/Packers (25 degrees)
NFL Week 16 Line Movement
Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs
The biggest line moves are from starting quarterback injuries and Patrick Mahomes likely out with an ankle sprain has impacted the Texans/Chiefs spread. The Chiefs had opened -4.5 point road favorites, but when Mahomes went down it moved to Texans -1.0. The money continued to come in on the Texans pushing it to -2.0, -2.5, and peaking at -3.0 before moving down to -2.0 to -2.5.
A 7 point move is about the most you will see in a week and Mahomes is one of the top quarterbacks to move the needle. It also depends on the backup quarterback, which in this case is veteran Carson Wentz.
The total has also tumbled, down from 47.0 with stops at 44.5 and 40.5 on the way to 39.5.
Los Angeles Rams at New York Jets
The Jets are one of the most disappointing teams in football this season and have seen their lines move significantly since Week 1. They were originally -3.0 point home favorites, but between the Jets poor play and the Rams surprising season we have the Rams now sitting as -3.5 point road favorites, a 6.5 point line move. The Jets are just 4-10 SU and 5-9 ATS.
The total has only moved 1 point from 47.5 to 46.5
New Orleans Saints at Green Bay Packers
The Packers opened -5.0 point home favorites and the line has moved 8.5 points in their favor to -13.5. The line peaked at -14.0 before immediately going to -13.5. While the Saints will play with a backup quarterback, this line move seems a bit extreme as they are 3-2 in their last 5.
The Packers have two games left at Minnesota and Chicago, so there is a potential for them to look past the Saints this week.
The total has gone from 45.0 down to 41.5 and now is at 42.0.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys along with the Jets have seen their lines move the most, and not in their favor. The Bucs are also playing great football and leading the NFC South.
Dallas opened -4.0 point home favorites and the line has moved a full 8 points in the other direction with the Bucs now -4.0 point road favorites.
The total has gone up from 46.0 to 49.5 making it the highest total of the week. The Cowboys are 4-1 to the Over in their last 5 games. The Bucs are 7-4 to the Over in their last 11 games.
