This article is part of our NFL Game Previews series.
Jacksonville (+9) at New England, 46.5 o/u – Sunday, 3:05 p.m. EST
The Story: In a wild divisional round last weekend, about the only game that went according to script was the Patriots' rout of the Titans, and they would seem to have a clear path to the Super Bowl against a Jags squad which on paper has been built on its defense – yet has allowed more than 40 points twice in their last four games. Let's not hand Tom Brady a sixth ring just yet, though. Jacksonville does have the tools to not merely keep this one close but even win it outright. Leonard Fournette, if he's close to 100 percent, can chew up clock and keep Brady off the field; their pass rush can get to the quarterback without selling out on blitzes; and they've even got defenders like Jalen Ramsey and Telvin Smith who are athletic enough to potentially contain Rob Gronkowski. All that said, it's still the Pats, a team that has played in every AFC title game since 2011. If the Jaguars are going to advance to their first ever Super Bowl, they might need a little more magic to do it.
The Skinny:
•2017 regular-season JAC offense: 26.1 PPG (5th), 141.4 rushing yds/gm (1st), 232.3 passing yds/gm (18th), 24 sacks allowed (T-3rd), 23 turnovers (T-19th)
•2017 regular-season NE offense: 28.6 PPG (2nd), 118.1 rushing yds/gm
Jacksonville (+9) at New England, 46.5 o/u – Sunday, 3:05 p.m. EST
The Story: In a wild divisional round last weekend, about the only game that went according to script was the Patriots' rout of the Titans, and they would seem to have a clear path to the Super Bowl against a Jags squad which on paper has been built on its defense – yet has allowed more than 40 points twice in their last four games. Let's not hand Tom Brady a sixth ring just yet, though. Jacksonville does have the tools to not merely keep this one close but even win it outright. Leonard Fournette, if he's close to 100 percent, can chew up clock and keep Brady off the field; their pass rush can get to the quarterback without selling out on blitzes; and they've even got defenders like Jalen Ramsey and Telvin Smith who are athletic enough to potentially contain Rob Gronkowski. All that said, it's still the Pats, a team that has played in every AFC title game since 2011. If the Jaguars are going to advance to their first ever Super Bowl, they might need a little more magic to do it.
The Skinny:
•2017 regular-season JAC offense: 26.1 PPG (5th), 141.4 rushing yds/gm (1st), 232.3 passing yds/gm (18th), 24 sacks allowed (T-3rd), 23 turnovers (T-19th)
•2017 regular-season NE offense: 28.6 PPG (2nd), 118.1 rushing yds/gm (10th), 288.7 passing yds/gm (1st), 35 sacks allowed (T-13th), 12 turnovers (2nd)
•2017 regular-season JAC defense: 16.8 PPG allowed (2nd), 116.3 rushing yds/gm allowed (21st), 192.1 passing yds/gm allowed (1st), 55 sacks (2nd), 33 turnovers (2nd)
•2017 regular-season NE defense: 18.5 PPG allowed (5th), 114.8 rushing yds/gm allowed (20th), 269.9 passing yds/gm allowed (32nd), 42 sacks (T-7th), 18 turnovers (25th)
•2017 regular-season net QB rating: JAC, plus 15.9 (7th); NE, plus 13.1 (10th)
•Key injuries, JAC: RB Leonard Fournette (ankle, questionable), DT Malik Jackson (ankle, questionable), S Barry Church (shoulder, questionable), S Tashuan Gipson (foot, questionable); NE: QB Tom Brady (hand, questionable), RB Rex Burkhead (knee, questionable)
•Weather forecast: partly cloudy, wind less than 10 mph, less than 10 percent chance of rain
The Scoop: Fournette rumbles for 80 yards and a score. Blake Bortles throws for 220 yards and a touchdown to Marqise Lee. Dion Lewis leads the NE backfield with 80 combined yards, but it's James White who catches a TD. Brady throws for 250 yards and a second score to Gronk, but he also gets sacked by Calais Campbell in the fourth quarter, resulting in a fumble that Dante Fowler Jr. returns to the house. Jaguars, 24-20
Minnesota at Philadelphia (+3), 38.5 o/u – Sunday, 6:40 p.m. EST
The Story: Speaking of magic, the Vikings needed plenty of their own to get past the Saints. The Minnesota Miracle may seem like it's destined to join the ranks of other legendary NFL plays like the Immaculate Reception, but it'll resonate a whole lot better if they win this weekend and become the first team in history to play a Super Bowl in their home stadium (although technically, if they make it, they'll be the away team). Case Keenum survived his first playoff test, throwing for over 300 yards last week – including thatheave – and while the Eagles have a tough defense, their secondary doesn't figure to be any tougher to beat than the Saints' unit. Of course, Philly's QB survived his own big test against the Falcons, although Nick Foles' efficient, low-risk performance last week didn't match Keenum's when it comes to fireworks. With the top two rushing defenses in the league going head to head, though, one of those signal callers will need to come up big to give their franchise a shot at its first ever Super Bowl victory.
The Skinny:
•2017 regular-season MIN offense: 23.9 PPG (10th), 122.3 rushing yds/gm (7th), 245.6 passing yds/gm (15th), 27 sacks allowed (T-7th), 14 turnovers (3rd)
•2017 regular-season PHI offense: 28.6 PPG (3rd), 132.2 rushing yds/gm (3rd), 247.9 passing yds/gm (14th), 36 sacks allowed (16th), 20 turnovers (T-11th)
•2017 regular-season MIN defense: 15.8 PPG allowed (1st), 83.6 rushing yds/gm allowed (2nd), 208.1 passing yds/gm allowed (2nd), 37 sacks (T-17th), 19 turnovers (T-23rd)
•2017 regular-season PHI defense: 18.4 PPG allowed (4th), 79.2 rushing yds/gm allowed (1st), 242.7 passing yds/gm allowed (18th), 38 sacks (T-15th), 31 turnovers (4th)
•2017 regular-season net QB rating: MIN, plus 26.1 (1st); PHI, plus 18.1 (5th)
•Key injuries, MIN: WR Adam Thielen (back, questionable); PHI: none
•Weather forecast: partly cloudy, wind less than 10 mph, less than 10 percent chance of rain
The Scoop: Latavius Murray bangs out 50 yards, while Jerick McKinnon chips in 60 combined yards. Keenum throws for 230 yards and TDs to Thielen and Kyle Rudolph. Jay Ajayi manages 70 yards. Foles throws for 200 yards and a touchdown to Alshon Jeffery. Vikings, 17-13
2017 playoff record: 5-3, 3-5 ATS, 4-4 o/u
2017 regular-season record: 164-92, 111-131-14 ATS, 114-138-4 o/u
2016 regular-season record: 155-99-2, 110-136-10 ATS, 139-112-5 o/u
2015 regular-season record: 157-99, 137-111-8 ATS
