This article is part of our NFL Draft series.
Here is the wide receiver portion of the pre-draft dynasty rookie rankings, addressing 45 wideouts in the upcoming rookie class. Check out the QB/RB edition here.
WR
1. Corey Davis, Western Michigan (6-foot-3, 209 pounds)
Even if he can't run before the draft due to an offseason ankle injury, Davis will remain my No. 1 wide receiver. His film and production are the best in the class, and Mike Williams didn't do well enough at his pro day to close the gap on those variables. Meanwhile, I'm betting on the premise that Davis won't/wouldn't test badly enough at his own pro day to let Williams gain ground.
Davis is arguably the top dynasty asset among this year's rookie class after totaling 331 catches for 5,278 yards and 52 touchdowns in 50 career games. The production is flawless, and when you turn on the film you only see more reasons for optimism. In addition to adept route running and great hands, Davis routinely shows the after-the-catch speed to pull away for long gains. He's a strong WR1 prospect who deserves to go in the first ten picks of the draft, and no lower than second in dynasty rookie drafts.
Comparison: Jordy Nelson
Round: 1
2. Mike Williams, Clemson (6-foot-4, 218 pounds)
Although I have Williams safely behind Davis in my rankings, Williams still should be a lock for the first round and has a good chance at earning a starting role as a rookie. Williams' floor is very
Here is the wide receiver portion of the pre-draft dynasty rookie rankings, addressing 45 wideouts in the upcoming rookie class. Check out the QB/RB edition here.
WR
1. Corey Davis, Western Michigan (6-foot-3, 209 pounds)
Even if he can't run before the draft due to an offseason ankle injury, Davis will remain my No. 1 wide receiver. His film and production are the best in the class, and Mike Williams didn't do well enough at his pro day to close the gap on those variables. Meanwhile, I'm betting on the premise that Davis won't/wouldn't test badly enough at his own pro day to let Williams gain ground.
Davis is arguably the top dynasty asset among this year's rookie class after totaling 331 catches for 5,278 yards and 52 touchdowns in 50 career games. The production is flawless, and when you turn on the film you only see more reasons for optimism. In addition to adept route running and great hands, Davis routinely shows the after-the-catch speed to pull away for long gains. He's a strong WR1 prospect who deserves to go in the first ten picks of the draft, and no lower than second in dynasty rookie drafts.
Comparison: Jordy Nelson
Round: 1
2. Mike Williams, Clemson (6-foot-4, 218 pounds)
Although I have Williams safely behind Davis in my rankings, Williams still should be a lock for the first round and has a good chance at earning a starting role as a rookie. Williams' floor is very high, even if he lacks Davis' explosiveness.
Timed around the mid-to-high 4.5s at the Clemson pro day, Williams' 40 time likely would have been between 4.60 and 4.65 had it been run at the Combine. It's adequate speed for a wideout as big as Williams, but it falls short of projecting much big-play ability. While it's possible Williams could pose a downfield threat in the NFL due to his catch radius and ball skills alone, I think he'll generally have to establish himself as a standout red-zone target to be a strong fantasy asset. Luckily, his skill set and build give reason to think he'll do as much.
I should mention that my reservations about Williams sound similar to ones I had about Michael Thomas last year, and so far Thomas appears to be much more than a possession wideout. Of course, Thomas' 40 time likely would register 0.05-0.08 better than Williams' would, and Thomas also logged strong agility drills, which Williams declined to run.
Comparison: Michael Westbrook
Round: 1
3. John Ross, Washington (5-foot-11, 188 pounds)
Despite his general resemblance to the likes of Santana Moss and DeSean Jackson, Ross has the chance to be something truly unique in the NFL. As explosive as those two players are, neither was as productive as Ross was in college, and neither is objectively close to Ross when it comes to speed.
Burners they may be, but Moss (4.31-second 40 around 185 pounds) and Jackson (4.35-second 40 at 169 pounds) still trail significantly behind Ross' 4.22-second 40-yard dash at 188 pounds. When you really grapple with that fact, it becomes difficult to envision just what sort of NFL effect Ross is capable of. His ceiling may be that of a player as transcendent as Bob Hayes.
If anything can stop Ross, it's his medicals. He tore both meniscuses at Washington, necessitating microfracture surgery in one case. He also tore one of his ACLs and reportedly will need shoulder surgery. If it weren't for his medicals, I'd rank Ross over Williams. Ross finished his 2016 season with 81 catches for 1,150 yards and 17 touchdowns on 131 targets.
Comparison: Santana Moss
Round: 1
4. Chris Godwin, Penn State (6-foot-1, 209 pounds)
Godwin's tape and film are arguably the second-best in the class behind Davis, and he emerged from the Combine with one of the best athletic profiles in the draft. I don't see the argument against him as a first-round consideration.
Godwin just turned 21 yet finished his Penn State career with 2,421 yards and 18 touchdowns, and that was while dealing with Christian Hackenberg for two of those years. In his one year without Hackenberg (2016), Godwin totaled 982 yards and 11 touchdowns on 98 targets. When you throw in a 4.42-second 40-yard dash, 126-inch broad jump, and 11.01 agility score, I think you have one of the best players in the draft. I think he's a better prospect than Williams, but I rank Godwin lower because Williams is generally expected to go significantly higher in the draft order.
Comparison: Amari Cooper
Round: 1-2
5. Carlos Henderson, Louisiana Tech (5-foot-11, 199 pounds)
Mislabeled a 'one-year wonder' by some, Henderson has been known as a uniquely dangerous big-play threat since his first season at Louisiana Tech. After an injury-disrupted sophomore season where he totaled 774 yards and five touchdowns in 11 games, Henderson went bonkers in 2016, totaling 82 catches for 1,535 yards and 19 touchdowns on just 140 targets, adding 133 yards and two touchdowns rushing, and two kickoff return touchdowns.
With film and production strongly in his favor, Henderson only needed an adequate showing at the Combine to grade as a mid-round pick for me. But he did better than adequate, posting a 4.46-second 40 and 131-inch broad jump. Exceedingly explosive and skilled both before and after the catch, Henderson will make plays as a receiver, runner, and returner.
Comparison: Steve Smith
Round: 2-3
6. Taywan Taylor, Western Kentucky (5-foot-11, 203 pounds)
Taylor doesn't profile as a WR1 at under six feet tall and without blistering speed, but he's close to the ideal in almost all other regards. His 4.50-second 40-yard dash at the Combine was plenty adequate, and his other workout metrics were strong – his 132-inch broad jump and 10.78 agility score illustrate his unique explosiveness.
As good as his athleticism metrics are, though, it's production and film that are the strongest parts of Taylor's prospect profile. In terms of peak play, Taylor was probably the second-most dominant wideout in the country the last two years behind Davis. Taylor totaled 184 catches for 3,197 yards and 34 touchdowns in his last 28 games, including a 2016 season where he posted 1,730 yards and 17 touchdowns on just 140 targets. That's 12.4 yards per target despite substandard quarterback talent. There's also insight to be found in the fact that Taylor caught nine passes for 121 yards against Alabama on a day where the whole Western Kentucky passing game totaled 216 yards.
Comparison: Stefon Diggs
Round: 2-3
7. Juju Smith-Schuster, USC (6-foot-1, 215 pounds)
Smith-Schuster tested rather poorly at the Combine for a player of his ambitions and pedigree, but his film and production still carry his prospect profile.
A 4.54-second 40 and 32.5-inch vertical are fairly concerning for a 6-foot-1 wideout, yet easy enough to look past when you recall that Smith-Schuster finished his USC career with 3,092 yards and 25 touchdowns in 40 games. That includes a 2015 season where, despite not turning 19 until late November, Smith-Schuster totaled 1,454 yards and 10 touchdowns on just 138 targets.
Regardless of the specifics of his workout metrics, the mere fact that JSS produced like that at such a young age compellingly indicates uncommon developmental upside. Considering he won't turn 21 until the fall, there's arguably some cause to project further athletic development for Smith-Schuster, too.
Comparison: Michael Crabtree
Round: 2-3
8. Curtis Samuel, Ohio State (5-foot-11, 196 pounds)
Ranking Samuel this low may be one of the main contrasts between my rankings and most others, and I do feel a bit uneasy waiting this long to list him. It's only a testament to how high I am on the likes of Godwin, Henderson, Taylor, and JSS – I'm actually a fan of Samuel's.
But unlike the previously mentioned wideouts, there's a lot of projection involved with fitting Samuel's skill set into an NFL context. His elite college production and 4.31-second 40 illustrate his upside, but Samuels has an ambiguous NFL fit after playing a hybrid running back-receiver role at Ohio State that probably won't fit in most NFL offenses. There's also some risk of the team drafting him listing him as a running back rather than a wide receiver – the former would threaten to tank his fantasy value on a technicality.
The best-case scenario – and one that's plenty plausible – is a team drafting Samuel at receiver and using him like Kansas City did Tyreek Hill. Copycat as the NFL is generally, there's a strong chance of that exact thing occurring. I still find Samuel's fantasy value more conditional than the wideouts previously listed, however.
Comparison: Percy Harvin
Round: 1-2
9. Josh Malone, Tennessee (6-foot-3, 208 pounds)
Malone started slowly in a Tennessee offense that was mostly mediocre under quarterback Joshua Dobbs, but by his junior season he had reached the form expected of him as a blue chip recruit. He totaled just 54 catches for 636 yards and three touchdowns in his first 19 games, but in 2016 Malone finished with 50 receptions for 972 yards and 11 touchdowns – and on just 78 targets. That means he averaged 12.5 yards per target in an offense that otherwise averaged 7.1 yards per pass.
Considering he just turned 21 in March, Malone's early-career struggles aren't a concern for me, and it makes his 2016 season all the more impressive. Throw in a Combine showing where Malone logged a 4.40-second 40-yard dash, and Malone's prospect profile indicates significant upside.
Comparison: Ashley Lelie
Round: 3
10. Shelton Gibson, West Virginia (5-foot-11, 191 pounds)
Gibson disappointed a bit at the Combine, as he was widely expected to be one of the fastest players at any position. But his 40 time registered at 4.50, and he let down further with a 32-inch vertical, and 118-inch broad jump. I thought Gibson was a candidate to establish himself as a top-five wide receiver in this class, and instead he slid.
Still, there's a reason I had such high hopes for Gibson before the Combine. His production and film are golden – he looks closer to 4.40 on tape than 4.50, and he was an incredibly efficient target despite playing with a quarterback with limited passing ability. Gibson turned 80 receptions into 1,838 yards and 17 touchdowns over the last two years, including a 2016 season where he totaled 43 catches for 951 yards and eight touchdowns on just 73 targets – good for an average of 13.0 yards per target despite the fact that his quarterback could barely move the ball downfield.
Gibson's rare production and fast play on film give me reason to largely disregard his workout metrics, but I can't rank him as high as I previously thought I would at this point.
Comparison: Devin Smith
Round: 3
11. Zay Jones, East Carolina (6-foot-2, 201 pounds)
Jones is projected to go earlier than Malone or Gibson, but I'm ranking him behind them because I just don't see as much fantasy upside in Jones' prospect profile. Jones has a high floor and should make a PPR impact at the very least, but even after an impressive Combine showing, I'm not seeing how Jones creates a great deal of yardage or touchdowns per target.
With that said, there are numerous selling points with Jones. Most notably, he owns the single-season reception record with 158 catches in 12 games in 2016 – breaking the record previously held by Freddie Barnes in one less game. He was extremely productive in general at East Carolina, finishing his career with 399 catches for 4,279 yards and 23 touchdowns in 49 career games. He also did well at the Senior Bowl. But as Jones' career average of 10.7 yards per catch illustrates, there's a profound lack of big plays in Jones' game. The touchdown total is also low – it's concerning that it took an average of 17.4 catches for each touchdown catch.
If you're high on Jones – which is entirely reasonable, by the way – it's probably because his athletic testing at the Combine convinced you that Jones is more than just a chain-mover. The production says he's plodding, but his 4.45-second 40, 133-inch broad jump, and 10.8 agility score say there's more explosiveness here than meets the eye.
Comparison: Marvin Jones
Round: 2-3
12. Josh Reynolds, Texas A&M (6-foot-3, 194 pounds)
You'd like to see Reynolds closer to 210 pounds than 190, as it's generally a red flag for a receiver to have a body density as low Reynolds does. But in the context of Reynolds' film, production, and workout metrics, it's easy enough to look past the concern.
You worry about a receiver as skinny as Reynolds, but maybe not one with 2,788 yards and 30 touchdowns in the last three years despite often dealing with poor quarterback play. His 2016 season was especially impressive, as he caught 61 passes for 1,039 yards and 12 touchdowns on just 99 targets. That's an average of 10.5 yards per target despite playing in an offense that averaged 7.1 yards per pass.
Reynolds rounded out his prospect profile nicely with a solid showing at the Combine, where he ran the 40-yard dash in 4.52 seconds, adding a 37-inch vertical, 124-inch broad jump, and 10.96 agility score.
Comparison: Robby Anderson
Round: 3-4
13. Chad Hansen, California (6-foot-2, 202 pounds)
It's easy to look at Hansen's production and write him off as a late-blooming one-year wonder, but that would be a misinterpretation. It's true that Hansen had only one good season at the FBS level, but prior to that he played at Idaho State and, upon arriving at California in 2015, he was a walk-on in a new system trying to earn playing time in an extremely experienced group of in-house wideouts.
But after all of Bryce Treggs, Kenny Lawler, Darius Powe, Trevor Davis, Stephen Anderson, and Maurice Harris departed following the 2015 season, there was finally an opportunity for Hansen. He seized it and immediately proved significantly better than all of his predecessors – three of whom were drafted, and all of whom were signed to the NFL in some capacity. There's a lot of insight to be found in this anecdote alone.
Hansen finished his one year as starter with 92 catches for 1,249 yards and 11 touchdowns in just 10 games, leaving him with 29 percent of the team's receiving yardage and 29.7 percent of its receiving touchdowns despite missing time with a high ankle sprain. Unlike the wideouts Hansen played behind in 2015, Hansen did not have the benefit of catching passes from Jared Goff – he instead had to play with the far inferior Davis Webb. Despite that fact, Hansen averaged 8.4 yards per target in an offense that averaged 6.9 yards per pass – a full two yards less than the Goff-led offense of 2015.
I love Hansen's production, and I find his film convincing, too. Considering he posted a solid athletic profile at the Combine with a 4.53-second 40 and 10.87, I've seen all I need to here.
Comparison: Steve Johnson
Round: 3-4
14. ArDarius Stewart, Alabama (5-foot-11, 204)
Stewart is a player I personally grade as a mid-round talent, but he was reportedly advised by the NFL Draft Advisory Board that he would be a likely second-round pick. That means the NFL is likely higher on Stewart than I am, and he's therefore more assured playing time than some of the players I would otherwise rank ahead of him.
Stewart is a fine player with plenty of likable traits, but I struggle to identify upside in his prospect profile. He was good but not great at the Combine, posting a 4.49-second 40-yard dash, 34-inch vertical, and 124-inch broad jump, which isn't enough for me to get excited in conjunction with what I take to be good but not great film and production.
His 2016 was impressive – he was Alabama's top pass catcher while snagging 54 of 86 targets for 864 yards and eight touchdowns, including numerous strong performances against some of the best pass defenses in the country. But the numbers are only average for a senior player, which Stewart was in effect as a redshirt junior. Also, there are whispers that Stewart is already over 23 years old, which would lessen the significance of such production.
Comparison: Ike Hilliard
Round: 2-3
15. Robert Davis, Georgia State (6-foot-3, 219 pounds)
Here is one of the most interesting players in the draft. Davis was mostly off the prospect radar at Georgia State, but he was always a matter of some intrigue due to his early, consistent production. As a true freshman in 2013, Davis served as second wideout to now-NFL player Albert Wilson, totaling 44 catches for 711 yards and four touchdowns in a year where Wilson caught 71 for 1,177 yards and eight touchdowns. But Davis' role didn't take a step forward after Wilson's departure, as standout receivers Donovan Harden and Penny Hart emerged to limit Davis' market shares.
Still, Davis was nothing if not steady. Following his freshman year, Davis went on to post 732 yards in 2014, and 980 yards in 2015. His 968-yard, five-touchdown senior season in 2016 may seem like a slight regression, but it was actually his breakout year – his 2015 total was just 22.4 percent of Georgia State's receiving yardage, whereas in 2016 Davis endured atrocious quarterback play to earn a 32.8 percent share despite the volume decrease.
So we've got four solid seasons of age-adjusted production, including a true breakout season. It's a nice foundation for his prospect profile, which was sent skyrocketing by Davis' exceptional Combine. Even as one of the biggest wideouts in the draft, Davis went on to run a 4.44-second 40-yard dash while posting a 41-inch vertical, 136-inch broad jump, and 6.82-second three-cone.
This is an elite athlete with a fully adequate production background. There's reason to believe Davis could emerge as one of the best receivers in this draft.
Comparison: Quincy Enunwa
Round: 3-5
16. Kenny Golladay, Northern Illinois (6-foot-4, 218 pounds)
Another big small school wideout, Golladay was a more feared college receiver than Davis, but lags trivially behind Davis in my rankings due to lesser athleticism. But that alone isn't saying much – almost no one is as good of an athlete as Davis.
Golladay is likely an above average athlete in his own right, as the lanky target ran an impressive 4.50-second 40-yard dash at the Combine. His other workout metrics were average, but still plenty good for a receiver as big as Golladay.
Good as his athletic measurables might be, it's Golladay's film and production that carries his prospect profile. He was workhorse at Northern Illinois after dominating at North Dakota prior to that. Golladay totaled 160 catches for 2,285 yards and 18 touchdowns in 26 games at Northern Illinois, including a 2016 season where he caught 87 passes for 1,156 yards and eight touchdowns on 147 targets. While 7.9 yards per target might look inefficient at a glance, such a conclusion can only occur without watching Northern Illinois' quarterbacks, who simply couldn't throw. They finished the year with a YPA of 6.7.
Round: 3-5
17. Isaiah Ford, Virginia Tech (6-foot-1, 194 pounds)
If workout metrics don't mean much to you, go ahead and rank Ford higher than this. He was one of the most productive college football receivers over the last three years, showing excellent age-adjusted production despite shaky quarterback play the first two years.
Ford hurt his stock at the Combine with a 4.61-second 40-yard dash and 11.28 agility score, but even if his upside is limited by a lack of speed for his size, Ford's production at Virginia Tech implies a skill set advanced well beyond his years. He just turned 21 in February, meaning he accumulated all of his 2,967 yards and 24 touchdowns at ages 20 or less. Low ceiling or not, it's almost impossible to produce that way if you're not an NFL talent.
If Ford were two inches taller and 15 pounds heavier I'd be on board with him as a first-round pick, but as it stands, I think there are legitimate reasons to question whether he ever turns into more than a WR3 type. I would guess he has a Marvin Jones/Robert Woods-like career in store.
Round: 3-5
18. Cooper Kupp, Eastern Washington (6-foot-2, 204 pounds)
Big NFL media absolutely love this guy, but I can't convince myself their reasoning is sound.
Kupp was a very good college player – an incredibly good one – and he showed he definitely has some role waiting for him in the NFL after totaling 428 catches for 6,464 yards and 73 touchdowns in 52 games at Eastern Washington. But the significance of those numbers is lessened somewhat by Kupp's advanced age – he'll turn 24 in June. His workout metrics, meanwhile, are close to a red flag for me.
Certainly big enough at 6-foot-2, 204 pounds, Kupp still profoundly lacked explosiveness at the Combine, posting a 4.62-second 40, 31-inch vertical jump, and 116-inch broad jump. His agility numbers were quite good – an agility score of 10.83 means Kupp projects well as a short-range slot target at the least – but the age and lack of speed at the same time is a concerning combination to me.
I think Tyler Boyd is the ceiling for Kupp, but I could just as easily see his career going the way of a Quinton Patton/Jared Abbrederis type.
Round: 3-4
19. K.D. Cannon, Baylor (5-foot-11, 182 pounds)
Cannon is widely perceived as a lesser version of Dede Westbrook, but I see him as a cheaper, younger, better version. While it's true that Cannon doesn't have a memorable Biletnikoff-winning season to his credit, his overall career at Baylor was more impressive than Westbrook's at Oklahoma.
Cannon was a hit even as a true freshman, catching 58 passes for 1,030 yards and eight touchdowns in 2014. He caught 87 passes for 1,215 yards and 13 touchdowns on 143 targets in 2016 despite dealing with a July knee surgery and an in-season groin injury. His 8.5 yards per target were a strong figure in what was a down year for a Baylor offense finishing with a 7.6 YPA.
Cannon's Combine 40 time of 4.41 is a case of a checked box rather than a true strength – his prospect profile would have proved problematic if he had run much slower – but in the context of his age-adjusted production, it was just enough to fortify his stock. Cannon won't turn 22 until November.
Round: 4-5
20. Dede Westbrook, Oklahoma (5-foot-11, 178 pounds)
Not long ago hyped as the potential top receiver in the draft, most narratives following Westbrook were off the mark until recently. A great college player for sure – the 2016 Biletnikoff winner, in fact – Westbrook has the look of a player with little room for projected development. What you see now might be useful, but it's all you're getting.
Westbrook transferred to Oklahoma as a JUCO prospect for the 2015 season, a year in which he was relatively quiet behind lead wideout Sterling Shepard. He broke out in 2016, a season in which he turned 23 in November. His 1,524 yards and 17 touchdowns on 108 targets is highly impressive, but his age and the system he played in diminish the prospect significance of such numbers.
One obvious strength of Westbrook's is speed, both before and after the catch. He can create separation before the catch and run away from traffic after the fact. He ran a 4.39-second 40 at the Oklahoma pro day, confirming this was no illusion. But that he ran it at just 178 pounds threatens its applicability in practice, or at the very least reduces his speed to a checked box rather than a boost to his prospect profile. In other words, it's not so much that he's defined by great speed as much as that he would have nothing going for him otherwise. Plus, that 4.39 is probably a 4.45 at the Combine.
Between his advanced age and exceptionally light frame, I think Westbrook's pro prospects mostly point toward a WR3-type role on most functional rosters. As a prospect, I see Paul Richardson. But it should be mentioned that Westbrook has a history of domestic violence accusations, so it's plausible he'll drop further than his raw prospect profile would imply.
Round: 4-5
21. Speedy Noil, Texas A&M (5-foot-11, 199 pounds)
Given the number of low-floor or/and replacement-level assets likely to exist in this range of the rankings, I think there's an argument for drafting Noil higher than this. There's a good chance he never gets off the ground, but if he does, Noil has as high of a ceiling as almost anyone in this class (as well as most others).
Noil was a five-star recruit who arrived to A&M with expectations as high as almost any recruit going back a number of years. The initial reviews raved – he was dominating offseason practices even before his freshman year started. His freshman season was a success – playing behind senior Malcome Kennedy and future NFL talent Josh Reynolds, Noil finished that year with 46 catches for 583 yards and five touchdowns. It would go down as his best season at A&M by far.
Noil went on to total just 551 yards in the next two years combined, as team suspensions and off-the-field issues reduced him to a non-factor. It's not aggressive to presume that only a profound lack of focus could explain Noil's disappearance. He didn't apply himself.
After such a two-year disappearance, it'd be fair to question whether Noil could be trusted to stay in shape under his own supervision. Noil laid to rest any doubts on that front with a 43.5-inch vertical and 133-inch broad jump at the Combine, and at the Texas A&M pro day he was timed between 4.40 and 4.42 in the 40-yard dash.
Noil is an elite talent, and his pre-draft workouts show he has been staying in shape at the very least. His character is dubious both in the football sense as well as off the field, but if the 21-year-old shows improved maturity going forward, the sky is the limit. Few boom-or-bust prospects offer the 'boom' potential that Noil does.
Round: 4-UDFA
22. Amba Etta-Tawo, Syracuse (6-foot-1, 208 pounds)
Etta-Tawo came out of nowhere as a Maryland graduate transfer to establish himself as the No. 1 wideout in Syracuse's pass-happy, max-tempo offense, resulting in huge numbers in his final collegiate season. He finished last year with 94 catches for 1,482 yards and 14 touchdowns in 12 games, taking just 125 targets to do it. That means he averaged 11.9 yards per target and held a 38.4 percent share of Syracuse's passing yardage in an offense that averaged 7.4 yards per pass. That's compelling.
It doesn't mean as much as it could, though, because Etta-Tawo turned 23 on Nov. 10. He also put forth a merely decent athletic profile at the Combine, running a 4.49-second 40-yard dash with a poor vertical (31 inches) and agility score (11.27).
It should be noted that Etta-Tawo is not the one-year wonder many refer to him as – he was quite productive as a freshman in 2013. But his entire prospect profile is a series of dizzying highs and lows that are difficult to explain, giving his NFL projection a similar nature.
Round: 4-5
23. Ryan Switzer, North Carolina (5-foot-8, 181 pounds)
Switzer is a very likable prospect who should settle in as a pick in rounds three through five after displaying a convincing slot receiver and special teams skill set at North Carolina.
He's certainly undersized, but Switzer offsets that with adequate athleticism and brilliant open-field running skills. He did more than enough at the Combine by logging a 4.51-second 40-yard dash and 10.77 agility score, confirming he has the athleticism for his skill set to remain in play at the NFL level.
Switzer memorably returned five punts for touchdowns on just 24 attempts as a freshman in 2013, and since then he's rounded out his skill set as a pass catcher, too. His 2016 season was superb in this regard, as he finished with 96 catches for 1,112 yards and six touchdowns on 129 targets. For a slot wideout to average 8.6 yards per target in an offense averaging 8.3 yards per pass is a very fine showing, indeed.
Switzer's lack of size and blazing speed may limit his ceiling in the NFL, but rest assured, he will stick around for a while one way or another.
Round: 3-5
24. DeAngelo Yancey, Purdue (6-foot-2, 218 pounds)
The most irritating Combine snub for me, Yancey is a player I'm optimistic about despite a generally cold reception from the NFL.
I can understand why someone would be low on Yancey. His skill set is very narrow, and he's quite bad at some tasks that receivers are asked to do often. Specifically, Yancey is bewilderingly bad at running with the football after the catch, looking awkward and unconfident despite possessing a killer combination of size and speed.
But I find Yancey so convincingly good at the tasks leading up to that point that I don't care. Yancey is uniquely good at getting open deep along the sideline, and he has no trouble leaving the defense behind him if he gets a step on his defender. The athleticism to create separation, the size to fight at the catch point, and the acrobatics to reel in the ball are all there with Yancey, so as a late-round pick I don't really care if he immediately stumbles to the ground afterward. A 17-yard gain is a 17-yard gain.
Playing in Purdue offenses with terrible quarterbacks, Yancey finished his career with 2,344 yards and 20 touchdowns in 39 games, even with a bizarre disappearance for most of 2014. There's volatility in there, but I'm encouraged by Yancey's precocious 2013 season, when he totaled 512 yards and two touchdowns in seven games, as well as the peak displayed in 2016, when he caught 49 passes for 951 yards and 10 touchdowns on just 101 targets. That's 9.4 yards per target in an offense averaging just 6.4 yards per pass.
The previously mentioned facts are what sell me on Yancey's skill set. His athletic ability, on the other hand, doesn't need much of a sales pitch. At 6-foot-2, 218 pounds, he ran the 40-yard dash in the high 4.4s while adding a 36-inch vertical, 121-inch broad jump, and 6.84-second three-cone at the Purdue pro day.
Round: 4-7
25. Amara Darboh, Michigan (6-foot-2, 214 pounds)
Darboh is a big, athletic wideout with middling production throughout his Michigan career. He totaled 115 catches for 1,589 yards and 12 touchdowns over the last two years, his age-21 and age-22 seasons. In the case of 2016, he caught 57 passes for 862 yards and seven touchdowns on 102 targets. That average of 8.5 yards per target is entirely adequate, though not groundbreaking as a 22-year-old in an offense averaging 7.4 yards per pass. His 31.3 percent share of the team's passing yardage was quite good, though.
Darboh's age-adjusted production implies a ceiling of a WR3/WR4 type in the NFL. If there's reason to hope for more, it's in his athletic profile. He ran a 4.45-second 40-yard dash at the Combine, adding a 36-inch vertical, and 124-inch broad jump. I think he's basically Kamar Aiken.
Round: 4-5
26. Jerome Lane, Akron (6-foot-2, 226 pounds)
A former linebacker, Lane is a big wideout who showed encouraging athleticism at the Combine after a productive two-year stretch at Akron. His 4.6-second 40 wasn't good, but you can rationalize it when you take his weight into account, and his workout numbers otherwise were quite good. His 125-inch broad jump was strong, and his agility score (10.99) was excellent for his size. At nearly 230 pounds, it's fair to speculate that Lane might get a look as a tight end in the NFL.
After totaling 1,018 yards on just 105 targets last year in an offense averaging just 7.7 yards per pass, I'm generally a fan of Lane, but can't tell if the NFL feels at all similarly.
Round: 5-7
27. Malachi Dupre, LSU (6-foot-2, 196 pounds)
Dupre might ride the momentum of his recruiting pedigree into a surprisingly high spot in the draft, but this former five-star recruit's talents seem mostly inapplicable to me.
Renown for his freakish leaping ability, Dupre showed he does indeed have springs in his shoes when he jumped a 39.5-inch vertical and 135-inch broad jump at the Combine. But Dupre's other athletic traits show up neither on film nor the rest of his Combine workout, as he posted an average 4.52-second 40-yard dash, and a below average 11.45 agility score. He also measured in with short arms and small hands, diminishing his projected utility as a jumpball target.
Dupre was reasonably productive at LSU, and to be fair he dealt with awful quarterback play. As unimpressive as his 593 yards and three touchdowns from 2016 might look, he deserves credit for accumulating that on just 63 targets. He was better in 2015, when he totaled 698 yards and six touchdowns as a true sophomore.
Dupre is still young – he won't turn 22 until October – but I worry that he lacks the speed to create separation in the NFL, and lacks the bulk and pass-catching acumen to make a living in traffic. I think Chris Conley is a fair comparison.
Round: 3-5
28. Fred Ross, Mississippi State (6-foot-1, 213 pounds)
Ross is a player whose prospect profile is carried by his film and production, as the slot wideout was quietly one of the SEC's best receivers over the last two years. He was Dak Prescott's favorite target at Mississippi State, with Ross' top season (1,007 yards and five touchdowns on 121 targets) occurring at Prescott's direction in 2015.
Ross doesn't have any standout athleticism to speak of, however, so the middle rounds look like the best-case scenario for him. Indeed, he's probably a below average athlete for a player of his draft ambitions – his agility was lacking at the Combine with an agility score of 11.27, though his 40 of 4.51 seconds was just good enough.
But for however bad his athletic limitations, one has to concede that Ross looks like the sort of player who can exceed the sum of his parts. His career average of 8.6 yards per target is highly impressive for a slot receiver playing on a low-to-mid tier SEC squad.
Round: 5-7
29. Ishmael Zamora, Baylor (6-foot-4, 215 pounds)
Zamora is in a similar boat as running back Joe Mixon in that he's a highly talented athlete with questionable employability. There's no video of Zamora breaking a girl's face, but there is one of him beating his dog.
Unlike Mixon, Zamora is not a clearly elite talent at his position, so he'll go much later in the draft, if he's drafted at all. But there's reason to think Zamora is an elite athlete at the least, as Baylor quoted him at 6-foot-4, 215 pounds with a 4.47-second 40, 39-inch vertical, 136-inch broad jump, and 6.58-second three-cone drill. If he can do anything close to that at the Baylor pro day, I'd bet he gets drafted.
His film and production from 2016 won't be enough to secure that outcome, though. His total of 809 yards on 110 targets last year (7.4 YPT) was not especially efficient, even with a Baylor squad playing its backup quarterback.
Round: 6-UDFA
30. Nicholas Norris, Western Kentucky (5-foot-9, 175 pounds)
Norris gets no attention whatsoever, but I couldn't tell you why. He was similarly dangerous as Taylor in Western Kentucky's offense, and in a way that's more impressive because Norris was running shorter routes as the team's slot receiver. But he wasn't invited to the Combine, which significantly harms his draft projection.
Looking beyond that one fact, though, there's a lot to like about Norris. He was highly productive at Western Kentucky, totaling 3,091 yards and 26 touchdowns in four years, including a 2016 season where he finished with 1,318 yards and 14 touchdowns on just 99 targets. For a slot receiver to average over 13 yards per target is nuts. When you watch Norris, you quickly learn how he pulled it off – Norris is slippery after the catch and shows the ability to break open deep on double moves.
The only remaining issue with Norris' prospect profile is the fact that I can't find the numbers for his full workout from the Western Kentucky pro day. What has been disclosed to this point is encouraging – he reportedly posted a 37-inch vertical and 125-inch broad jump – but I can't find his 40 or the height/weight any of this occurred at.
Round: 6-UDFA
31. Stacy Coley, Miami (FL) (6-feet, 195 pounds)
Coley has much better pedigree than his ranking would imply, but injuries, character issues, and volatile production at Miami cloud his prospect profile.
Coley looked like a future star in his 2013 true freshman season. He was a menacing big-play threat with 591 yards and seven touchdowns on just 33 catches (17.9 YPR), and he added a rushing touchdown, kick return touchdown, and punt return touchdown for good measure. But injuries and inconsistency held him to just 184 yards and no touchdowns in 2014, and he'd go on to total just 1,443 yards and 13 touchdowns in the 24 games after that. That includes a 2016 season where he averaged just 7.3 yards per target and got outplayed by true freshman wideout Ahmmon Richards.
It's possible that Coley reminded scouts of his previously perceived upside by logging a 4.45-second 40-yard dash at the Combine, but with middling production and downright dubious marks for his football character, I think he might have to earn his way through practice squad rites of passage before getting a serious look in the regular season.
Round: 6-UDFA
32. Tanner Gentry, Wyoming (6-foot-1, 208 pounds)
Gentry probably has 4.6 speed if he's running at the Combine, but he showed good jump and agility workout metrics at the Wyoming pro day, and his production in college was among the best in this class. He finished his career with 2,815 yards and 20 touchdowns in 41 games, including 2,004 yards and 18 touchdowns in his last 21 games. He averaged 10.05 yards per target in 2016 on an offense that averaged 8.5 yards per attempt.
Round: 5-UDFA
33. Trent Taylor, Louisiana Tech (5-foot-8, 181 pounds)
Taylor's size is a bit of a red flag and his 40 time at the Combine (4.63) was not good, but his A+ production at Louisiana Tech and strong agility numbers give him a chance to stick as a slot prospect in the NFL.
His agility score of 10.75 helps explain how Taylor was so tough to cover at Louisiana Tech, where he totaled 4,179 yards and 32 touchdowns in 51 games. That includes a remarkable 2016 season where he posted 1,803 yards and 12 touchdowns on just 176 targets – incredible numbers for a slot receiver.
Round: 6-UDFA
34. Mack Hollins, North Carolina (6-foot-4, 221 pounds)
Hollins is a former walk-on who emerged as a dangerous deep threat for North Carolina, producing big yardage on modest target volume while catching 1,667 yards and 20 touchdowns on 81 career receptions (20.6 YPC). While his 4.53-second 40-yard dash doesn't jump out at a glance, it's quite good for a player with Hollins' size and demonstrated skill set. Still, his lankiness and one-dimensional skill set remind me of Tommy Streeter.
Round: 5-7
35. Chad Williams, Grambling (6-foot-1, 204 pounds)
Williams wasn't invited to the Combine, but that was a surprise after he did well for himself at the Senior Bowl. Williams was certainly productive at Grambling, finishing the 2016 season with 96 catches for 1,420 yards and 12 touchdowns in 13 games. His pro day was a success, as he was reportedly timed as low as 4.37 seconds in the 40-yard dash.
Round: 5-7
36. Marcus Kemp, Hawaii (6-foot-4, 200 pounds)
This may be an aggressive ranking for Kemp, who was not invited to the Combine and has no confirmed workout metrics, but his production at Hawaii was quietly quite strong, and the only reported pro day 40 time I could find for him was a 4.44.
Even if that's more like a 4.50 at the Combine, I find it an intriguing combination of size and speed for a player who totaled 73 catches for 1,100 yards and eight touchdowns last year. That included an average of 9.1 yards per target in an offense that averaged just 7.3 yards per pass.
Round: 5-UDFA
37. Artavis Scott, Clemson (5-foot-10, 193 pounds)
Scott's college career was downright strange. He started off scorching hot, posting one of the best true freshman seasons ever for a wideout, snagging 76 passes for 965 yards and eight touchdowns. It would go down as his best season by far, and by 2016 he was reduced to 76 catches for 614 yards and five touchdowns on 98 targets. That's 6.3 yards per target in an offense that averaged 8.0 yards per pass.
It would normally be a huge red flag, but even Scott's most alarming numbers look better than those posted by former Clemson wideout Adam Humphries in the same role, and Humphries has stuck around as a slot target in Tampa Bay. Still, even if he's better than Humphries, Scott's awful Combine showing (4.61-second 40, 11.68 agility score) imply very limited upside.
Round: 6-7
38. Jamari Staples, Louisville (6-foot-3, 195 pounds)
Staples was less productive than teammate James Quick, but it's Staples who is the better prospect due to a far superior athletic profile. With a 4.51-second 40, 36-inch vertical, and 130-inch broad jump, Staples possesses unique explosiveness for his frame.
Round: 6-UDFA
39. Bug Howard, North Carolina (6-foot-4, 221 pounds)
Howard certainly didn't look particularly athletic on tape, but he surprised with a solid showing at the Combine after a steadily productive career at North Carolina. His 4.58-second 40 was below average, but his vertical (37.5 inches) and agility score (11.09) were encouraging for his size. Howard finished his career with 2,048 yards despite playing in crowded wideout rotations, and in 2016 he posted 827 yards and eight touchdowns on 85 targets (9.7 YPT).
Round: 6-UDFA
40. Thomas Sperbeck, Boise State (6-feet, 180 pounds)
He wasn't invited to the Combine, but Sperbeck was too productive at Boise State for him not to get a long look from the league as a slot prospect. He totaled 219 catches for 3,561 yards and 20 touchdowns in his last 37 games, including a 2016 season where he averaged ten yards per target.
Round: 6-UDFA
41. Damore'ea Stringfellow, Mississippi (6-foot-2, 219 pounds)
Stringfellow is a former top recruit who wasn't invited to the Combine over an assault charge from 2014. A former Washington transfer, Stringfellow is believed to possess above average athleticism, but we won't know until the April 3 Mississippi pro day. In the meantime it's safe to say Stringfellow's upside is mostly theoretical – he only offered middling production at Mississippi, with his 716 yards in 2016 (8.4 YPT) marking a career high.
Round: 6-UDFA
42. Travis Rudolph, Florida State (6-feet, 189 pounds)
A former high recruit who generally enjoyed a productive career as Florida State's top receiver over the last few years, Rudolph was one of the Combine's biggest disappointments. It's a red flag to run a 4.65-second 40 at his size, and his other workout numbers (31.5-inch vertical, 114-inch broad jump) were generally as bad. His 2,311 career yards at Florida State imply he at least has a skill set to work with, though.
Round: 7-UDFA
43. James Quick, Louisville (6-feet, 186 pounds)
Quick was quite productive at times for Louisville, especially in a 2016 season where he totaled 769 yards and six touchdowns on 66 targets, but his athletic testing at the Combine was prohibitively bad. Despite his pedigree, the odds are stacked against him after logging a 4.6 40, 31-inch vertical, and 115-inch broad jump at under 190 pounds.
Round: 7-UDFA
44. Jalen Robinette, Air Force (6-foot-3, 220)
Robinette has decent athleticism for his size and made many plays downfield at Air Force, but he'll face questions about his skill set after mostly running vertical routes in Air Force's option offense. Still, 14.1 yards per target last year should help him get a long look from the league.
Round: 7-UDFA
45. Quincy Adeboyejo, Mississippi (6-foot-3, 197 pounds)
An athletic but unproductive big wideout, Adeboyejo looks like a practice squad stash. His 4.42-second 40-yard dash and 6.73-second three-cone imply upside that his 6.3 YPT from 2016 casts doubt over.
Round: 7-UDFA
Others: Austin Carr (Northwestern), Rodney Adams (South Florida), Travin Dural (LSU), Gabe Marks (Washington State), Keevan Lucas (Tulsa), Keon Hatcher (Arkansas), Jordan Westerkamp (Nebraska), KeVonn Mabon (Ball State), Rob Wheelwright (Wisconsin), Isaiah McKenzie (Georgia), Daikiel Shorts (West Virginia), Brandon Reilly (Nebraska), Kermit Whitfield (Florida State), Noah Brown (Ohio State)