This article is part of our Showdown/Single Game DFS Breakdown series.
Week 1 went swimmingly for the 1-0 Eagles, who put down a formidable Packers squad and now head into Monday with a full head of steam against an 0-1 Falcons squad that was among the league's most disappointing and confusing teams in Week 1. The Falcons are the clear underdog here as their big-money quarterback Kirk Cousins tries to shake off a wretched Falcons debut at home against the Steelers. That Steelers defense is probably one of the toughest in the league, so perhaps the Falcons can show a little more life in this one, but in the meantime the Eagles look like a squad ready to play while the Falcons look like they're just hoping things turn around. If the Falcons have any hope Monday it might trace to the fact that Philadelphia is without elite WR1 A.J. Brown (hamstring). The Eagles are favored by 6.0 points and the over/under is 45.5.
QUARTERBACKS
Jalen Hurts ($10000 DK, $17500 FD) might not run the ball quite as much with Saquon Barkley on the team, or at least Hurts might not get quite as many rushing touchdowns with Barkley around, but that's not yet a cause for alarm to his overall fantasy value. The absence of A.J. Brown is probably a different matter – Brown is both a big part of Hurts' success and a player completely impossible to replace. DeVonta Smith should thrive as a WR1 here and Dallas Goedert might be able to pick up some slack too, and
Week 1 went swimmingly for the 1-0 Eagles, who put down a formidable Packers squad and now head into Monday with a full head of steam against an 0-1 Falcons squad that was among the league's most disappointing and confusing teams in Week 1. The Falcons are the clear underdog here as their big-money quarterback Kirk Cousins tries to shake off a wretched Falcons debut at home against the Steelers. That Steelers defense is probably one of the toughest in the league, so perhaps the Falcons can show a little more life in this one, but in the meantime the Eagles look like a squad ready to play while the Falcons look like they're just hoping things turn around. If the Falcons have any hope Monday it might trace to the fact that Philadelphia is without elite WR1 A.J. Brown (hamstring). The Eagles are favored by 6.0 points and the over/under is 45.5.
QUARTERBACKS
Jalen Hurts ($10000 DK, $17500 FD) might not run the ball quite as much with Saquon Barkley on the team, or at least Hurts might not get quite as many rushing touchdowns with Barkley around, but that's not yet a cause for alarm to his overall fantasy value. The absence of A.J. Brown is probably a different matter – Brown is both a big part of Hurts' success and a player completely impossible to replace. DeVonta Smith should thrive as a WR1 here and Dallas Goedert might be able to pick up some slack too, and moreover there's such a short list of viable fantasy candidates in this game it still might be worth paying up for Hurts even without Brown.
Kirk Cousins ($9000 DK, $14000 FD) should be (have been?) good this year, but between his recovery from his mid-season Achilles' tendon tear and the other generalized issues of the Atlanta offense, it's difficult to figure out where he or the Falcons are really at. It's possible that Cousins' Week 1 struggles were largely or mostly due to the strength of the Steelers defense, but when a team doesn't run a single playaction snap it raises the concern that the quarterback can't turn and reset quickly or safely enough to run such a play design. Realistically, playaction is a crucial component in any functional NFL passing game. If the Falcons can't or won't use it then it makes everything more difficult. The good news is Cousins presumably won't have high ownership on this slate.
RUNNING BACKS
Saquon Barkley ($10600 DK, $13500 FD) might be a borderline impossible single-game slate fade this year, or at least it didn't work out for anyone who left him out of their lineups when the Eagles played Green Bay in Brazil. Barkley is an elite running back or close to it, and the Eagles offensive line is by far the best he has ever played behind in the NFL. The Falcons run defense was one of the best in the NFL in 2023, but it's tough to tell if an easy schedule played a part. Barkley and the Eagles OL pose a bigger challenge than almost any offense the Falcons faced last year. Kenneth Gainwell ($2800 DK, $7500 FD) is the backup but only played 14 snaps in Week 1, with the rookie Will Shipley playing the RB3 role with four snaps.
Bijan Robinson ($10400 DK, $16000 FD) might be able to make a strong fantasy season in 2024 even despite the potential for profound struggle for the Falcons in general, as his sky-high usage from scrimmage gives him extensive opportunity to produce. The fields won't be as short as they could be and maybe the touchdown opportunities will be limited as a result, but the carries and crucially the catches should both be there. If there's a single player on the Falcons you don't want to fade in a single-game slate it's probably Robinson. Tyler Allgeier ($3600 DK, $9000 FD) is a highly capable player but only played nine snaps in Week 1. The Falcons would be smart to pass less and run more if they can't do any better as a passing offense than they did against Pittsburgh. If you're not throwing the ball anyway, it doesn't help the Falcons to keep Allgeier on the bench.
WIDE RECEIVERS + TIGHT ENDS
DeVonta Smith ($8800 DK, $11500 FD) is a borderline must-play with A.J. Brown out and Smith's price calculated as if Brown were playing. Smith is overqualified as a WR2, so the fact that he's not quite as good as Brown doesn't matter here. Smith is a WR1 to many or most teams, and he's ready to be one for the Eagles here. Even a corner like AJ Terrell is no deterrent. Stated differently, if Smith doesn't produce in this game then it's probably a very bad sign for the Eagles' chances of winning. Jahan Dotson ($4000 DK, $7500 FD) is also an interesting consideration, if only because he's priced as if he's the WR3 rather than the WR2. Dotson isn't all that close to Smith's level, but Dotson can definitely beat a corner like Mike Hughes. If not Dotson then the second-leading receiver for the Eagles would seem to be Dallas Goedert ($5800 DK, $9500 FD), though Goedert might see a fair amount of coverage attention from the Falcons' excellent safety duo. As far as general qualifications go, though, Goedert is clearly capable. Johnny Wilson and Britain Covey are both candidates to see 20 snaps or so, though Wilson is questionable with a hamstring issue. TE2 Grant Calcaterra is a candidate to play 30 snaps and could be a good punt pick if you're looking to save big money at one spot.
The tragic tale of Drake London ($7800 DK, $10500 FD) and Kyle Pitts ($6800 DK, $10000 FD) looks like it might continue yet another season if the Falcons can't figure out their quarterback situation. It's frustrating, because both players are top talents and there's just no good reason for these years of theirs to be wasted. Similarly, even though there are some good players scattered throughout the Philadelphia defense, there's no reason to think any of the coverage personnel can actually win against London and Pitts. If Cousins can't get it together, though, it might not matter. It's a similar deal with Darnell Mooney ($5400 DK, $8000 FD) – good player, but who knows whether he'll get the opportunity to prove it. Ray Ray McCloud ($3000 DK, $7000 FD) saw a barrage of checkdown targets as the Falcons flailed in Week 1, but now that they understand how McCloud's usage specifically correlates to losing the Falcons might make more of an effort to make sure the ball goes elsewhere.
KICKERS
Both kickers in this game are quite good, and could prove viable or even necessary for cashing on a single-game slate, especially if these two offenses struggle to convert yardage into touchdowns. Jake Elliott ($4800 DK, $9500 FD) is arguably the conventionally favored kicker between himself and Younghoe Koo ($5000 DK, $8500 FD) given that the Eagles are home favorites. Koo is very good himself, though, and if the Eagles offense struggles at all then it might give the Falcons both the field positioning and the game script to tap into Koo's considerable kicking ability from long range.
DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS
The Falcons ($3400 DK, $8000 FD) have some good players scattered throughout their defense – most notably Grady Jarrett, AJ Terrell and the safety duo of Jesse Bates and Justin Simmons – but they're one of the league's worst edge-rushing defenses and the corner personnel aside from Terrell is dubious at best. If sacks or turnovers occur here for the Falcons defense than it would probably mean the Eagles offense laid an egg – a possibility for sure but probably not the most likely one.
The Eagles ($4400 DK, $9000 FD) carry the higher defensive projection here because they both have the better defense in general and because the projected game script leaves the Eagles defense with more favorable situations than the Falcons defense on the other side. The Eagles should score more points, creating more pass-rush opportunities, and given their defensive line personnel the Eagles are good at converting pass-rush opportunities. If vintage Kirk Cousins inexplicably bursts out of the gates Monday then that would change things, but if it's the same Cousins from Week 1 then this could be a fruitful game for the Eagles defense.
