This article is part of our Showdown/Single Game DFS Breakdown series.
A divisional matchup between two playoff-aspiring teams usually makes for a dramatic nationally-televised showdown in itself, but this game between the Rams and the 49ers carries even more intrigue than usual due to recent events. One of those events was disheartening – the Friday ACL tear suffered by Rams receiver Robert Woods – while the unexpected arrival of Odell Beckham was otherwise a cause for excitement for the Rams. The 49ers might be the more conventionally 'dangerous' team of the two given their desperate state – a 3-5 record as they prepare for this home showdown – but at 6-2 the Rams clearly have the sounder overall roster. That would be true even before we factor in the additions of Beckham and Von Miller. The weather should be very cooperative – mild temperatures and almost no wind – and the over/under (50.5) is 1.5 points higher than what the game opened at. The Rams are favored by 3.5.
QUARTERBACKS
Matthew Stafford ($10800 DK, $17000 FD) struggled against Tennessee and seemed to get a bit roughed up in the contest, but the Rams didn't list him on the injury report. There may or may not be reason for concern over the loss of Woods – Stafford has had big games this year where Woods was only moderately involved, so even on short notice the addition of Beckham might be enough to get by here. The 49ers have been less than imposing on defense, allowing opponents to complete 68.7 percent of
A divisional matchup between two playoff-aspiring teams usually makes for a dramatic nationally-televised showdown in itself, but this game between the Rams and the 49ers carries even more intrigue than usual due to recent events. One of those events was disheartening – the Friday ACL tear suffered by Rams receiver Robert Woods – while the unexpected arrival of Odell Beckham was otherwise a cause for excitement for the Rams. The 49ers might be the more conventionally 'dangerous' team of the two given their desperate state – a 3-5 record as they prepare for this home showdown – but at 6-2 the Rams clearly have the sounder overall roster. That would be true even before we factor in the additions of Beckham and Von Miller. The weather should be very cooperative – mild temperatures and almost no wind – and the over/under (50.5) is 1.5 points higher than what the game opened at. The Rams are favored by 3.5.
QUARTERBACKS
Matthew Stafford ($10800 DK, $17000 FD) struggled against Tennessee and seemed to get a bit roughed up in the contest, but the Rams didn't list him on the injury report. There may or may not be reason for concern over the loss of Woods – Stafford has had big games this year where Woods was only moderately involved, so even on short notice the addition of Beckham might be enough to get by here. The 49ers have been less than imposing on defense, allowing opponents to complete 68.7 percent of their passes at 7.1 yards per attempt, conceding 12 touchdowns versus two interceptions. It's not a pushover matchup, but the 49ers pass defense is still well below what would normally be cause for concern to a team as good as the Rams.
Jimmy Garoppolo ($10000 DK, $14000 FD) has struggled much of the year but might be rounding into a better form now that he has Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle all playing at the same time, and at a notably high level last week. Although the Rams might be without CB2 Darious Williams (questionable, ankle), the Rams pass defense has been mostly tough this year, holding teams to just under 7.0 yards per attempt and allowing only 10 touchdowns versus 12 interceptions. The 49ers will be without Mohamed Sanu (knee), but that shouldn't matter.
RUNNING BACKS
Elijah Mitchell ($6400 DK, $11500 FD) should remain the clear top runner for the 49ers, especially after Jeff Wilson ($1200 DK, $5000 FD) didn't play a single snap in his return from injury last week. While the rookie speedster Mitchell will likely keep his decisive lead, it might still be a good slate to consider Wilson with Jamycal Hasty (ankle) out. If not Wilson then Trey Sermon ($800 DK, $6500 FD) would have to serve as the main backup to Mitchell. Sermon might be more talented than Wilson, but the ceaseless confusion and drama around him has made it difficult to trust the rookie. Regardless, the answer to the question of San Francisco's RB2 role could hold significant sway over the outcome of the slate. Kyle Juszczyk ($5500 FD) is still hanging around, too.
The Rams backfield is more straightforward: Darrell Henderson ($9200 DK, $12000 FD) is the main guy and Sony Michel ($5000 DK, $7000 FD) is the clear backup. While the 49ers defense has been reasonably effective from a yardage standpoint against opposing RBs, allowing just 3.8 yards per carry and 5.9 yards per target, they've also allowed 10 touchdowns from scrimmage to opposing backs (eight rushing, two receiving). Normally Henderson plays at least 2/3 of the snaps while Michel plays the remaining 1/3, so there is unlikely to be a third back to see the field for the Rams. Buddy Howell ($200 DK, $5000 FD) was the player to do so most recently (six snaps in Week 8).
WIDE RECEIVERS + TIGHT ENDS
Robert Woods' absence probably leaves some slack even after accounting the addition of Odell Beckham ($7400 DK, $10000 FD), who just joined the team Thursday and only practiced Friday, presumably with a very primitive playbook for the wideout as he tries to pick up the system on the fly. Expect his snaps to be limited somewhat, and expect a simple route tree (slants, posts, flys) rather than the full assortment of playcalling options. Beckham's talent isn't to be doubted and he can make big plays out of simple setups, but we should probably expect him to play fewer snaps than both Cooper Kupp ($12000 DK, $16000 FD) and Van Jefferson ($5400 DK, $8000 FD). Kupp in particular will be very chalky, including for the Captain spots, but that's because he easily carries the highest median outcome on the slate. Kupp's usage and efficiency are both outrageously high – he's averaging more than eight catches, 100 yards and a touchdown per game, and with Woods out it's possible he'll take an even higher share of the offense. The 49ers have to sell out to stop him, but other teams have tried to by now and only the Cardinals in Week 4 succeeded in that. Meanwhile, if Jefferson does serve as the WR2 ahead of Beckham, then he's probably a bargain at his price, which more so presumes WR3 status. Beckham should eventually overtake Jefferson in the offense, but it'd be difficult to do so in this game on such short notice. Ben Skowronek ($200 DK, $6000 FD) might be the WR4 but he's questionable with a thigh issue. J.J. Koski ($200 DK, $5000 FD) would be next up if so.
If there's slack from the Woods injury and Beckham can't pick it up, then Tyler Higbee ($6200 DK, $7500 FD) might need to do more lifting than usual. That would be bad for the Rams if so, because Higbee probably can't get open against linebacker Fred Warner without the aid of playaction and/or other misdirection. With that said, Higbee has seen eight or more targets in two of his last three games, so tough matchup or not he might have to step up.
Prominent as Higbee might be, the headliner at tight end is of course George Kittle ($7800 DK, $10500 FD), who might be a bargain price given that he's probably the single most important player to the 49ers offense. Kittle raked in his first game back from injury last week, turning eight targets into six catches for 101 yards and a touchdown on just 41 snaps. If healthy enough he should approach 60 snaps in this one.
If not Kittle then the most popular 49ers pass catcher might be Deebo Samuel ($9000 DK, $13000 FD), whose early-season tear will probably land him on a lot of league-winning fantasy rosters this year. The incoming matchup with Jalen Ramsey might be intimidating, but the Rams defense is hurting at the other corner spot with Darious Williams questionable to play, and Samuel raked against the Rams last year. If Ramsey shuts down Samuel it will mark the first time he's done so. Brandon Aiyuk ($6600 DK, $7500 FD) will try to maintain his momentum after breaking out for six receptions for 89 yards and one touchdown on eight targets last week. If Ramsey shadows Samuel then Aiyuk could find more room to run, especially if Williams is out. With Sanu out the 49ers will turn to Trent Sherfield ($200 DK, $5500 FD) and Jauan Jennings ($200 DK, $5000 FD) for their WR3 committee.
KICKERS
Matt Gay ($4200 DK, $9500 FD) conventionally projects well as the competent kicker for a good offense with favored status in the game. Gay also offers superior long-range kicking ability to Robbie Gould ($4000 DK, $9000 FD), who otherwise kicked well in his return from injury last week. For what it's worth, neither of these teams have been all that charitable to opposing fantasy kickers this year, with both surrendering an average of 6.5 points per game.
DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS
As the Titans showed last week, it is possible to rattle Matthew Stafford when the defense executes a strong game plan well. Generally, though, those outcomes catch us by surprise, and they surprise us because they usually don't happen. So while there's no obvious reason to be drawn to the 49ers ($2400 DK), it's worth keeping in mind that the chaos of one-game slates invite strange outcomes. As long as the Rams keep Nick Bosa in line, though, it's hard to see how the 49ers would get to Stafford.
The Rams ($4600 DK) defense projects better than the 49ers do, both because they're the better overall defense of the two and because Garoppolo is a lesser quarterback than Stafford. Perhaps Von Miller can make his debut and boost the Rams pass rush, and it would be timely if so because the Rams are hurting for cornerback depth with Darious Williams and Dont'e Deayon questionable.
