This article is part of our Payne's Perspective series.
I've been lucky enough to be included in three major early-season NFL mock drafts that will be published in two different magazines. The first magazine, which will include two of the mock drafts (one PPR and one standard), is our own Rotowire football magazine. The second is Lindy's fantasy football magazine, another publication that can be picked up at your local retailer.
First up are my picks from the Rotowire 14-team PPR mock. I'll do my best to give justification for the picks as well as giving some general observations as to how the drafts went. The full draft will be available in the magazine and on the Rotowire website. The write-ups for the remaining two mocks will come out over the next few weeks, accompanied by some observations and notes from the league.
1. (10)Calvin Johnson – Remember last season when Calvin was a consensus top-3 overall pick? Calvin's numbers were down across the board but his ankle injury is clearly to blame here. He missed three full games, the better part of two more and was not 100 percent for a handful of other contests. As a result, his stock has dropped this season and getting him in the late first round could be a steal if he's completely healthy. There's no reason to think he won't easily eclipse 1,000 receiving yards for the sixth straight season and double-digit touchdowns should be in the works as well.
2. (19)C.J. Anderson – I didn't want to count
I've been lucky enough to be included in three major early-season NFL mock drafts that will be published in two different magazines. The first magazine, which will include two of the mock drafts (one PPR and one standard), is our own Rotowire football magazine. The second is Lindy's fantasy football magazine, another publication that can be picked up at your local retailer.
First up are my picks from the Rotowire 14-team PPR mock. I'll do my best to give justification for the picks as well as giving some general observations as to how the drafts went. The full draft will be available in the magazine and on the Rotowire website. The write-ups for the remaining two mocks will come out over the next few weeks, accompanied by some observations and notes from the league.
1. (10)Calvin Johnson – Remember last season when Calvin was a consensus top-3 overall pick? Calvin's numbers were down across the board but his ankle injury is clearly to blame here. He missed three full games, the better part of two more and was not 100 percent for a handful of other contests. As a result, his stock has dropped this season and getting him in the late first round could be a steal if he's completely healthy. There's no reason to think he won't easily eclipse 1,000 receiving yards for the sixth straight season and double-digit touchdowns should be in the works as well.
2. (19)C.J. Anderson – I didn't want to count on getting a RB1 too late in this draft and wanted someone capable of catching passes out of the backfield since this is a PPR league. Here are Anderson's second half stats last season if you prorate them to a full 16-game slate: 1,354 rushing yards, 64 catches for 492 yards and 18 total touchdowns. Note that those numbers do not include the Week 9 game against Oakland where he had 163 yards from scrimmage and a touchdown. While there's no guarantee he replicates that performance over a 16-game slate, it gives you an idea of what his potential ceiling is.
3. (38)Brandon Marshall – Count me among those who are holding some optimism when it comes to Geno Smith this season. His development is obviously going to have a huge impact on Marshall's fantasy value this season and this was probably the pick I was the most uneasy about. In the two other drafts Marshall went much later, although neither was a full point PPR. I have to think the Jets make Marshall the focal point of the passing game and feed him the ball as much as possible. One minor red flag here is that the AFC East should be one of the toughest divisions defensively in football and playing Miami and Buffalo twice each won't be an easy task.
4. (47)Keenan Allen – When drafting in a PPR format I always try and get as many No. 1 wide receivers as possible. While Allen is coming off a disappointing sophomore campaign, there's plenty of reason to jump back on his bandwagon this year. Philip Rivers wasn't traded in the offseason and with Melvin Gordon on the roster teams will have to respect the run game. This should leave Allen in 1-on-1 coverage on the outside and give him the opportunity to get back to the numbers he posted as a rookie.
5. (66)Peyton Manning – He really has fallen this far in every draft I've done and there's concern that a big production drop could be coming this season given his age. Manning posted numbers last season similar to two seasons ago and the odds he gets back to 5,400-plus passing yards with 50-plus touchdowns are slim. He lost potent weapon Julius Thomas this offseason and the combo of Virgil Green and Owen Daniels is a pretty big downgrade. However, Demaryius Thomas is one of the elite receivers in the game plus Emmanuel Sanders is in his prime and coming off a career year. All of his running backs are capable pass-catchers out of the backfield too and there is a very safe floor for Manning provided the decline isn't too sharp.
6. (75)Roddy White – I typically shy away from veterans past their prime but this was too far for White to fall in a PPR. He's still capable of a season of 80-1,000-8 and his biggest obstacle the last two seasons has been injury. He's going to see a lot of single coverage playing opposite Julio Jones and while all of my wide receiver spots are already filled, he could be the Flex or cover the three bye weeks of the other receivers.
7. (94)Joseph Randle – Hands down this was my favorite pick of the draft. Randle fits in nicely on my team given that I needed a RB2 and was looking for the most upside. Unless you think Darren McFadden will be reborn this season and somehow stay healthy, Randle should likely be the No. 1 running back. In a small sample last season he averaged 6.7 yards per carry and showed the explosiveness to make big plays. He'll be behind one of, if not the best, offensive lines in the league and they may have gotten better with the signing of La'el Collins. Randle could emerge as a three-down back and has enough size to handle goal line duties as well. Don't be surprised if his ADP ends up being well before pick 50 after the bulk of fantasy drafts go down.
SPOILER ALERT: Randle ended up on almost all of my mock teams and I wrote him up as one of this season's sleepers for the Rotowire magazine. I can see the upside to where he's a top-5 back this season.
8. (103)Tre Mason – Todd Gurley, like any other rookie, is going to be a very trendy pick. However, there's a lot of talk that he won't be ready for Week 1 and could be placed on the PUP list. If that happens, that means we won't see him the first four weeks of the season and it'll be Mason who has the lion's share of the carries for the Rams. He's already shown he's capable of handling a full workload and if Gurley suffers any type of serious setback, Mason could be the lead back for the whole season.
9. (122)Owen Daniels – It could be the DFS in me talking but it never hurts to pair your quarterback up with one of his leading pass-catchers. While Daniels is well past his prime, we've seen Peyton make a household name out of a player like Jacob Tamme before. I'm not expecting a huge season as far as receiving yards go but should Daniels stay healthy he could flirt with double-digit touchdowns.
10. (131)Jerick McKinnon – While it was only on 113 carries, McKinnon averaged 4.8 yards per carry and he would have been much more fantasy relevant had Matt Asiata not stolen a bunch of goal line carries. This pick was predicated on the chance that Adrian Peterson would be traded, which now seems unlikely to happen before Week 1. Still, McKinnon appears to be a very talented running back and the offense in Minnesota might be in its best shape since the Moss/Culpepper days. Should anything happen to AP, McKinnon would become a top-15 back.
11. (150)Doug Martin – He's playing for a contract and teams will now have to overly prepare for the passing game. As a result, the running game may fly under the radar and it could be Martin who benefits. Given that I didn't take a first round running back, it makes sense to load up on some fliers in the later rounds. Martin fits that bill.
12. (159) Miami D – The AFC East this season will be the new NFC West as far as defenses go. Ndamukong Suh joins an already potent squad and offensive lines will have trouble containing both him and Cameron Wake (11.5 sacks last season). The offense is still on the rise and if they're playing with a lead that could lead to a lot of turnovers in garbage time.
13. (178)Dan Carpenter – I'm a Bills fan.
News/Notes/Observations
Players like DeAngelo Williams, Tre Mason and even Jimmy Garoppolo are going to be interesting picks. In the case of Mason, I like taking him if you have Le'Veon Bell. Bell is going to miss the early part of the season and going with Mason over Williams gives you a player with more upside than simply handcuffing Bell with Williams. Mason's upside is that Todd Gurley suffers a setback and Mason becomes the primary ball carrier for more than just the first four weeks. Bell (who I'm not high on at all given that he's going in the first five picks overall) won't regain all of his carries if Williams shows he can still produce while Bell is out. Williams, like Mason, is a good upside pick if you end up taking Gurley. Between the two you should have a starting running back for the full season.
Heading into drafts, the position that seems to be a mess and most difficult to project is quarterback. After Andrew Luck and Aaron Rodgers there's a cluster of players who could fill the next five spots in any random order. Garoppolo is an intriguing possible fill-in option (don't believe the Matt Flynn hype) over the first four weeks given the system he'll be in. This is the same system that saw Matt Cassel throw for almost 3,700 yards and 21 touchdowns and if nothing else Garoppolo will be an interesting GPP play for DFS. If you're looking for a late round quarterback with upside, take a chance on Ryan Tannehill. A lot of his stats trended in the right direction last season and he has plenty of weapons around him despite the loss of Mike Wallace.
Our football coverage for the site will start coming fast and furious soon enough. As I already stated, I'll discuss my other mocks in the upcoming weeks as well as give some general thoughts and observations on the week's current news. As always, feel free to jump in and give any of your own thoughts or ideas in the comments.
