Mock Draft Musings: Standard Edition

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Updated on May 27, 2019 9:04PM EST

A lot can change between now until Week 1, but that isn't holding us back from using all the information we have at our disposal to explore the possibilities for what a typical snake draft could look like later this summer. Not to be confused with the PPR experts draft, we also conducted a 14-man, standard format draft that will appear in the annual RotoWire Football magazine.

Full disclosure: Prior to drafting, I did a handful of mock drafts on ESPN in the days leading up to Wednesday's kickoff. However, in hindsight I don't feel as if that was time well spent. Drafting against this caliber of competition — which mostly included award-winning columnists and noted high-stakes fantasy players (I fit neither description) — the board fell much differently compared to the what I observed in those ESPN mocks with random people.

I nonetheless employed the only strategy I personally find intuitive: to have a very loose approach until Round 5 or 6 while simultaneously attempting to have one and only one of my RB or WR corps upside-minded (and the other floor-minded). That latter part is more of an ideal thing than anything else. But in any case, I just don't believe in the logic of bypassing the best player available in lieu of any sort of positional preference. At the same time, the perceived value of most remaining players relative to others seems significantly more subjective in later rounds than in the first few, where we're

That leaves only one question mark to my strategy: my tolerance of risk and why I want one of the two main skill positions to be as stable as possible. In practice, not theory, I've found that if I can feel comfortable with one of those groups without having to also draft multiple backups, I will have the space to buy more than a few lottery tickets at the other position with the hopes that two or three will work out. It's also worth keeping in mind that I can eventually look to the waiver wire to supplement if need be.

With the No. 10 overall pick I had my sights set on David Johnson, and I would then hope one of Dalvin Cook, Joe Mixon or Travis Kelce fell to my second pick. If not, I wanted the highest-upside receiver (namely Odell Beckham). But there he was still on the board late in the first, the polarizing Todd Gurley. I'm no expert on knee arthritis, and I'm not going to pretend I am, so I was pumped I got him where I did. I don't care if that means I must also invest a mid-round pick in his likely backup to secure the Rams' starting running back, a role that netted Gurley 40 touchdowns in 29 games the past two years. The fact that someone like C.J. Anderson did what he did in replacing Gurley only builds my confidence that Darrell Henderson or Malcolm Brown could be effective if Gurley has trouble staying on the field. As you can see below, I opted for the third-round rookie who some viewed as the top running back in this year's draft class.

In the second round, I didn't think twice about drafting Antonio Brown. And I don't have any regrets in hindsight given that none of my aforementioned targets were available. Yes, he's getting old and catching passes from Derek Carr instead of Big Ben, but I'll bet on Brown's talent all day, every day, over the other players that were still on the board. Taking A.J. Green in the third was the sore thumb of my draft, though. There's the bright side that he's a premier talent on the last year of his deal (midseason trade to a contender prior to fantasy playoffs, anyone?), but for whatever reason I thought Mark Ingram would be there for me in Round 4.

If not Ingram, I would have been satisfied with either Kerryon Johnson or Marlon Mack. That was a stupid bet in hindsight given the sample of experts I was drafting against — especially since I, admittedly, considered those three to be the end of my fourth tier of RBs. I shouldn't have taken that risk of one of them lasting, and none of them did. I ultimately settled for a high-upside RB on a likely run-first team: Derrius Guice. This guy at least seemed set to take the league by storm last year before tearing up his knee in the preseason. Another option would've been Philip Lindsay, but thoughts of Steve Slaton arose in my mind and I opted for the former five-star recruit in Guice instead.

So after four rounds I had collected what I perceive as a pair of high-floor wideouts and two high-upside running backs, a result that just so happened to fit right in line with my ideal approach. Between picking Guice and waiting for my Round 5 pick, I then kind of made up in my mind that thereafter I'd take only one or two more wideouts the rest of the way and spend the majority of my remaining roster space on runners in case Gurley or Guice don't pan out. I also loved the idea of capitalizing on the saturated QB market by bypassing the Mahomes/Rodgers of the world and instead taking a couple Tier 2 or Tier 3 signal callers (those still above replacement/waiver level) in the later rounds with the mindset of playing matchups as the weeks unfold.

After my boss, Eric Caturia, sniped O.J. Howard in the fifth, I was looking at Cooper Kupp, Hunter Henry, Robby Anderson and James Washington at 58th overall. The decision ultimately came to Kupp vs. Henry given the overall team context of each player. Since both are coming off similar knee injuries, I didn't factor injury risk too much in this decision and ultimately took the guy who was on pace for 1100 yards and 12 scores in 2018. In doing so, I knew I had to prefer a running back with my next pick.

After resisting the urge to take Aaron Rodgers, I went with Lamar Miller, who seemingly had more three-down potential than anyone else left. I also considered Jordan Howard, or even reaching for Darrell Henderson to lock up some Gurley insurance. Thankfully, Henderson survived until my next pick and I wasted no time selecting him in the seventh. LeSean McCoy was also an option there, but I'm just not hitching my wagon on a 30-something who finished bottom-two among qualified running backs in yards after contact per attempt both of the last two years.

With four running backs and three wideouts after Round 7, I then simply wanted to fill out my roster without having to resort to any scrubs. In Round 8, I ultimately went with Trey Burton at tight end over Chris Herndon and then double-dipped at QB in 9 and 10, taking Lamar Jackson (gasp) over someone like Russell Wilson. I then followed up with Jared Goff to, as I said before, play the matchups when the regular season arrives (hypothetically in this case).

Overall, I'm content but not thrilled with my first real attempt at putting together a roster. Hindsight is 20/20, and there are more logical decisions I could've made. Below you'll find my actual results, and also what I could have put together had I known what everyone else was going to do. Finally, I also put together a third possibility for those who can't stomach the prospect of taking Gurley in the first.

My Actual Draft

R1 (No. 10) - RB Todd Gurley

R2 (No. 19) - WR Antonio Brown

R3 (No. 34) - WR A.J. Green

R4 (No. 43) - RB Derrius Guice

R5 (No. 58) - WR Cooper Kupp

R6 (No. 67) - RB Lamar Miller

R7 (No. 82) - RB Darrell Henderson

R8 (No. 91) - TE Trey Burton

R9 (No. 106) - QB Lamar Jackson

R10 (No. 115) - QB Jared Goff

R11 (No. 130) - RB Justice Hill