Matchup Edge: Hijinks in Houston

Buffalo vs. Indianapolis

Open: N/A
Press time: N/A

Two bad offenses and some cold weather should make this an ugly game, perhaps reducing it to a duel of running games. Frank Gore gets a nice enough draw against a Buffalo defense that's struggled to stop the run since trading Marcell Dareus, while LeSean McCoy is as always one of the top projected running backs on the slate. I do worry about the Tyrod Taylor situation complicating the circumstances around McCoy, reducing him to tournament consideration for me in DFS, but there should be substantial volume at the very least since Buffalo would be hard-pressed to fall far behind against Indianapolis' tame offense.

Carolina vs. Minnesota

Open: 42 O/U, MIN -1
Press time: 40 O/U, MIN -2.5

This too is not an encouraging game for fantasy purposes. I worry about a complete shutdown of the Carolina offense as its main channel of production, Devin Funchess, faces off with Xavier Rhodes. Rhodes is exactly the kind of corner you don't want Funchess to run against, because as a big corner he largely negates Funchess' size advantage. Funchess is still a good bet for ten or more targets, but I do worry that his YPT may settle in the five-yard range. That's still enough to fire him up as a WR3 type in season-long formats, though. It's hard to expect much from Greg Olsen, meanwhile, given that his foot appears to remain a problem.

If Cam Newton can post a strong box score despite the previously mentioned limitations, it would be nothing less than heroic against a Vikings defense that's allowed just 12 passing touchdowns in 12 games. The Vikings have allowed just 56 rushing yards to quarterbacks this year, so it's hard to see Newton making up for it on the ground. It's also difficult to imagine Christian McCaffrey or Jonathan Stewart doing a whole lot against a defense allowing just 3.5 yards per carry and the fewest fantasy points to running backs. McCaffrey doesn't project well as a pass catcher, either, as the Vikings have allowed only 4.8 yards per target to running backs this year.

If the Carolina offense does struggle, it should allow Latavius Murray and Jerick McKinnon to project for reasonable volume against a defense that will be without linebacker Shaq Thompson. Still, as long as Luke Kuechly is active this will be a run defense to avoid, so if one of the Vikings running backs provides a good return it will probably need to occur via touchdown production.

While the Carolina pass defense is good, I think Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs are good enough players that you would give them the advantage, tough as the matchup might be. If the Vikings running game stalls, it would leave the offense that much more dependent on Thielen and Diggs. Both strike me as fine tournament plays in DFS when you consider their talent combined with the potential for a pass funnel. Kyle Rudolph can always strike in the red zone, but his matchup is otherwise problematic against a defense in a tie for the third-fewest fantasy points allowed to tight ends.

Cincinnati vs. Chicago

Open: 37 O/U, CIN -6
Press time: 38.5 O/U, CIN -6.5

Gio Bernard is one of the top value plays this week with Joe Mixon (concussion) out, and if you consider Cincinnati the favorite in this game then it should assure a sizable volume for Bernard, who boosts his own floor thanks to his ability to contribute as a pass catcher. It's not the greatest matchup since Chicago allows only 4.0 YPC and 5.3 YPT to running backs, but the volume should ensure mainstream fantasy utility this week for Bernard.

If Bernard can't lay claim to all the usage that would normally go to Mixon, then you would consider A.J. Green the best candidate to pick up that slack. The Chicago pass defense has been okay this year, but that they've allowed 8.1 yards per target to receivers paints this as a highly advantageous situation for Green. I would normally worry about Green's ceiling in a game where the Bengals are such heavy favorites, but injuries on Cincinnati's defense could make this higher scoring than expected.

The Bengals will be without their top three linebackers, two of their four top corners (a third, Darqueze Dennard, is questionable), and one of their starting safeties. All-Pro defensive tackle Geno Atkins (toe) didn't practice all week, either, and it would be a profound loss if he's unable to play. These injuries give a major green light to Jordan Howard in my book – I love him as a DFS tournament play. Shockingly, I have no interest in the other Bears.

Cleveland vs. Green Bay

Open: 41 O/U, GB -3.5
Press time: 39.5 O/U, GB -3

Given his struggles and given the likely wind in this venue, I hate this setup for Brett Hundley and the Green Bay offense. Yes, the Cleveland offense has been pitiful this year, but I would still call DeShone Kizer a better quarterback, and Josh Gordon/Corey Coleman/David Njoku is more imposing than Davante Adams/Jordy Nelson/Lance Kendricks. I just don't see an advantage for Green Bay in this setting. Both defenses are vulnerable to the pass, of course, but Cleveland has the better playmakers on offense, and the wind might be strong enough to negate both passing games anyway. I think you're still starting Gordon and Coleman in most season-long contexts, and their big-play ability means they're still fully GPP viable even if the winds hold over 15 miles per hour.

Even the ground game projects as well for Cleveland as Green Bay. The Cleveland run defense has been very tough this year, and the winds will make it that much easier for the Browns to sell out against the run with impunity. I think Jamaal Williams is a good flex play in season-long formats – he should see big volume and a chance to score – but I don't like his chances for from-scrimmage yardage production. If I was bothering with a running back in this game in DFS, it'd be Duke Johnson in a tournament.

Houston vs. San Francisco

Open: 43 O/U, HOU -1.5
Press time: 45 O/U, HOU -2.5

This game is probably my favorite on the slate for fantasy purposes, and I bet it will be the second-most entertaining one behind only the Rams-Eagles matchup. These are two of the most pass-happy, uptempo offenses in the league, and the pass defenses are both among the worst. Looks like a powderkeg to me.

Jimmy Garoppolo is one of my favorite quarterbacks this week against a Houston defense allowing the second-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. Marquise Goodwin seems to get better every week, and he's starting to harness his Olympic-level athleticism after opening his career as a track guy trying to play football. Slot corner Kareem Jackson has been burned all year, which bodes well for Trent Taylor following last week's breakout game. If I think Garoppolo will have a good game, and I certainly do think that, then I almost necessarily need to expect a good game from both Goodwin and Taylor, if only because the third receiver in this offense might be Carlos Hyde.

Hyde draws a tough matchup against a strong Houston run defense, but I still like him this week because I think he'll see the opportunity to score, and his high level of activity as a pass catcher provides further reassurance if the Houston run defense plays well.

Lamar Miller should be one of the most popular running backs on this slate, and for very good reason. Alfred Blue is out, and RB3 Andre Ellington has all but moved to slot receiver to replace his cousin Bruce. That means Miller should see all the snaps he can handle in this, a plausibly uptempo and pass-happy matchup. I feel like there's big-time potential for yards from scrimmage for Miller in this one.

The Houston passing game should have at least two strong producers and, relative to DFS cost, as many as four. Ellington is a great fit as a slot receiver, and he has an ideal matchup against a 49ers defense that hasn't covered the slot this year. Will Fuller's return gives the Texans an enormous boost, and while he hasn't worked well with Tom Savage to this point, you simply can't ignore a playmaker of Fuller's level. Of course, the main draw of the entire Houston offense is DeAndre Hopkins, who I will try to make room for in all of my DFS lineups. Tight end Stephen Anderson is yet another name who could hit value among Texans pass catchers, as the team will be without both of C.J. Fiedorowicz, and Ryan Griffin, too. Anderson is an excellent play this week after seeing 12 targets against Tennessee.

Kansas City vs. Oakland

Open: 47.5 O/U, KC -4.5
Press time: 48.5 O/U, KC -4

The Chiefs couldn't cover anyone, then they suspended Marcus Peters. With Amari Cooper (ankle) expected to sit, this sets up as a high-floor, high-ceiling scenario for Michael Crabtree as he returns from his own suspension. Crabtree's floor could hardly be higher. If he disappoints, it's probably because Derek Carr ended up throwing fewer than 30 passes, and that's not likely. Last week's dud was puzzling, but Jared Cook is a fine bounce back candidate against a Chiefs defense allowing 8.7 yards per target to tight ends. Cordarrelle Patterson has some GPP appeal, too, thanks to his remarkable run-after-the-catch skills.

Cooper's probable absence helps solidify the projection of Marshawn Lynch, who has run well all year and would be in position to produce here so long as he gets the carries. The chances of that happening go down if the Chiefs offense conducts itself like it did last week, when it repeatedly scored from long range, but so long as the Chiefs don't race out to an early lead, Lynch should get significant usage against a Chiefs defense surrendering 4.1 yards per carry to running backs.

The Kansas City side has a handful of fantasy considerations in light of last week's resurgence against the Jets, and if Alex Smith plays that way two weeks in a row it would likely mean another big week for Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce. Hill historically has not done much at Arrowhead Stadium, noisy as those stats might be, but there's zero doubt that these Oakland corners can't cover him. Andy Reid would be smart to send Hill deep early and often. Even if Reid hamstrings his own offense by keeping Hill working underneath, Kelce should prove such a mismatch that the Chiefs should be able to lean on him if necessary. The only thing stopping them both from going off is Reid's playcalling, and I don't know how to advise the appropriate level of faith in Reid's judgment.

I in any case really like this setting for a bounce back game for Kareem Hunt, but I've been saying that for about a month now. What's true is this Oakland defense is bad, and Hunt is still good. His usage was capped last week by the seesaw-like exchange of point outbursts through the air, but if Smith's production is dialed back a bit then Hunt should directly benefit.

Tampa Bay vs. Detroit

Open: N/A
Press time: N/A

This should have been a blowup spot for at least two of Golden Tate, Marvin Jones, and Kenny Golladay, and it very well could still be. But with Matthew Stafford playing with a few injured fingers, what is a reasonable expectation of Stafford and those dependent on him? I have no read at all, unfortunately. Throwing a football with injured fingers sounds difficult, and Stafford is too tough to pull himself out of the game. I think there's a pretty significant chance that he'll be compromised.

On the other hand, even a limited Stafford might be good enough to light up Tampa Bay's pass defense. We all but know for certain that Tate, Jones, and Golladay will be open with regularity. Even Eric Ebron figures to be open. Stafford's hand just needs to be good enough to let the ball fly.

It's frustrating but not surprising that Dirk Koetter is going back to Doug Martin despite Peyton Barber's strong showing in Martin's absence last week. And I say that as someone who thinks Barber isn't any good. While the running game generally projects well for Tampa against a Detroit defense that struggles to stop it, that the workload splits between Martin and Barber makes capitalizing on the Tampa ground game difficult in practice.

In a game where both offenses throw the ball more than sixty percent of the time, it could be a setup where Jameis Winston is productive if only from the pass attempt volume. Enough well-timed clock stoppages and big plays can send almost any game into a shootout, and this game would be a fine candidate for such a thing if the play of the quarterbacks could be assured. Stafford's can't for health reasons, while Winston's can't because he's just ridiculous. But Mike Evans and DeSean Jackson should be open enough if Winston can hit his targets. Cameron Brate projects well, too, and it's looking like his recent slow stretch was largely the result of a hip injury that he seemingly got over last week.

Giants vs. Dallas

Open: 41 O/U, DAL -6
Press time: 41.5 O/U, DAL -3.5

I like Dak Prescott for a bounce back in this game against a Giants defense without Janoris Jenkins. I figure Dez Bryant catches Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, who would have to leave the slot to do it, and in such an event I would give the clear advantage to DRC. That would make the projection that much nicer for Jason Witten, who should be one of the top tight end plays on this slate. The Giants didn't give up anything to Vernon Davis and Jared Cook over the last two weeks, but that's probably noise.

If Dak plays well, then you have to like the projection for Alfred Morris, who quite simply gets volume so long as Dallas doesn't fall behind. If Dak is playing at all like he's capable, any deficit Dallas faces should be a manageable one, and insufficient cause to abandon the run and shift to a Rod Smith offense.

Eli Manning's comeback got a big boost when Dallas lost standout slot corner Orlando Scandrick and elite defensive tackle David Irving for this game. The Dallas coverage isn't the same without Scandrick, and the pass rush is much worse without Irvin. Sterling Shepard should capitalize on Scandrick's absence, and he's one of my favorite wideouts this week. I don't know what to make of Evan Engram's projection against a Dallas defense that's generally done well against tight ends, but if Manning goes over 225 yards it should entail a nice game for Engram. There's only so far Eli can go with just Shepard.

Arizona vs. Tennessee

Open: 44.5 O/U, TEN -3
Press time: 43 O/U, TEN -3

I love Marcus Mariota as a prospect, but I hate this Tennessee offense and almost everything about how it's run. Mariota's legs give him big fantasy upside and make him a worthwhile GPP consideration in most cases, but I'm not going to bother this week, myself. Rishard Matthews figures to catch Patrick Peterson, and the rest of the receivers haven't gotten open in this offense at all this year. Delanie Walker is the No. 1 pass catcher when Matthews is covered. Good luck figuring out this backfield split.

I'm more optimistic about the Arizona side, especially two of its pass catchers. I like Kerwynn Williams enough, but I don't like the matchup against a Tennessee defense that's far better against the run than the pass. That could dictate a funnel effect away from the run, in which case an already rosy projection for Larry Fitzgerald would probably change to more of a golden color. Blaine Gabbert is a checkdown quarterback, so Fitzgerald should approach or exceed double-digit targets once again here. I also am optimistic about Ricky Seals-Jones, whose snap count almost has to go up to 25 or more in this game. He's listed as a tight end, but his contributions to this offense have largely been as a receiver. With J.J. Nelson and John Brown unable to work with Gabbert, Seals-Jones is best thought of as the WR2 in this offense despite his limited snap count.

Denver vs. Jets

Open: 40.5 O/U, DEN -1.5
Press time: 41.5 O/U, NYJ -1.5

I don't know how you approach the Denver side in this game. I don't suspect that the Jets can cover Demaryius Thomas or Emmanuel Sanders particularly well, but would Trevor Siemian get them the ball even if so? I suppose I lost hope after last week. C.J. Anderson was bizarrely reinstalled as a workhorse runner after the team previously shifted more and more to Devontae Booker in the prior weeks. I can't trust any of these players.

The Jets side is more intriguing. Josh McCown has been great this year and might generate some interest against a Denver pass defense that has somehow allowed a league-leading 26 touchdown passes. Still, I'm having trouble imagining a big game from Robby Anderson against Aqib Talib, or Jermaine Kearse against Chris Harris. If someone is scoring through the air for the Jets, I'm more optimistic about Austin Seferian-Jenkins. The Broncos haven't covered tight ends well this year, allowing 821 yards and eight touchdowns to the position on just 95 targets (8.6 YPT).

Chargers vs. Washington

Open: 46 O/U, LAC -6.5
Press time: 46.5 O/U, LAC -6

Keenan Allen is playing so well that matchups don't appear to matter, but this is nonetheless probably one of the tougher ones he'll see. Kendall Fuller has done a good job in the slot this year, and when Allen isn't in the slot he should see the big, grabby duo of Josh Norman and Bashaud Breeland, who are exactly the kind of corners that match up best with Allen, who relies on size and route running rather than speed. These guys can run with him and won't be boxed out so easily. Still, Allen is a great bet for 12 targets and when you factor in his own talent, he remains a top play in season-long and a strong cash consideration in DFS at the very least. The only other Chargers pass catcher I would bother with – stop me if you've heard this before – is Hunter Henry. Henry could project especially well if those Washington corners create a funnel away from Allen.

Melvin Gordon is one of my favorite fantasy plays this week, even though I think he's one of the least impressive starting running backs in the league. While I don't know where the running back who averaged 7.8 yards per carry at Wisconsin has disappeared to, it might not matter much in this setting. I like the Chargers' chances of dictating the flow of this game as their pass rush and lockdown coverage takes on a battered Washington offensive line, and if that happens it should result in a high-volume scenario for Gordon, who faces a defense allowing 4.2 yards per carry and 6.1 yards per target to running backs.

Samaje Perine has largely redeemed himself as a prospect lately, and the Chargers run defense isn't a good one. I worry that the flow of the game might deprive Perine of any substantial opportunity, though, and my concern is he might end the game with something like 55 yards on 12 carries and nothing else.

Kirk Cousins is a very good quarterback and he's tough to bet against, but I'll bet against him in this setting. The long travel, the pass rush, the three strong corners facing off against a mediocre wideout rotation – it doesn't add up to anything good for Cousins, as far as I can tell. If I were targeting a Washington wide receiver I think it might be Josh Doctson – his vertical game could allow him to reel in catches even if he can't create separation from Casey Hayward. Jamison Crowder is seeing big target volume lately, though.

Jacksonville vs. Seattle

Open: 39.5 O/U, JAC -3.5
Press time: 40 O/U, JAC -2.5

I'll be staying away from this game, Jacksonville defense aside. Names like Leonard Fournette, Doug Baldwin, Jimmy Graham and, to a lesser extent, Russell Wilson, Marqise Lee, and Mike Davis, are all worth utilizing as usual in season-long formats. In DFS, though, I'm not sensing enough upside to justify taking on the risk. Keep an eye on the injury statuses of Jalen Ramsey (ankle) and Telvin Smith (concussion), though, because it would open things up a bit if either of those two were to sit.

Rams vs. Philadelphia

Open: 51 O/U, LAR -1
Press time: 48 O/U, LAR -1.5

Perhaps the two best-coached teams in the league this year, this matchup might be the best of the regular season on paper. These two teams have been in control for most of their respective seasons, so it should be quite a collision when they face off here.

Jay Ajayi, LeGarrette Blount, and Corey Clement should all prove capable of running on this Rams defense, which has been among the worst at stopping the run. Guessing the division of labor here is a tough task – it sure doesn't seem like Ajayi is in a favored class despite the team coughing up a fourth-round pick for him not long ago. Still, one of these guys should prove productive in this game, and I like Ajayi's chances of proving useful as a tournament play.

Carson Wentz is one of my favorite tournament plays for DFS this week, as the formidable Rams pass defense should deflate ownership levels, yet I would consider Wentz the favorite in a matchup between himself and the Rams defense. Linebackers Connor Barwin and Alec Ogletree are both questionable, too, which should make the pass rush a bit easier to contain. If Zach Ertz (concussion) is out, it would set up big-play scenarios for Alshon Jeffery and Nelson Agholor. The Rams should be able to keep pace in this game and force the Philadelphia offense to play aggressively, so I like the chances for a shootout here despite how good the defenses are. Also, if Ertz is out, the unheralded but quite talented Trey Burton would make for an interesting tournament consideration at tight end.

Jared Goff has some tournament appeal of his own against an Eagles team that should score often enough to keep the Rams at an escalated tempo. If Goff sees a substantial pass attempt volume in this setting, I like his chances of success. Sean McVay's scheming is almost always brilliant, and the Eagles secondary has not been tested much this year, great as its aggregate numbers might be. I don't think these corners can run with Sammy Watkins one bit, so I love him as a GPP target, and Cooper Kupp generally offers a high floor at least.

It's a brutal matchup for Todd Gurley – the Eagles are allowing just 2.9 yards per carry and 5.5 yards per target to opposing backs. Gurley's talent and role leave him locked-in for season-long formats, and he's almost always a worthwhile tournament consideration in DFS, but the only way his matchup this week could have been worse was if it were in Philadelphia. This Eagles defense has been absolutely ruthless to running backs, limiting opposing running backs to 12.6 fantasy points per game.

Pittsburgh vs. Baltimore

Open: 44 O/U, PIT -7
Press time: 43.5 O/U, PIT -4.5

You generally don't expect points when the titans of the AFC North face off in a December matchup, and this game is no exception. With Joe Flacco and Ben Roethlisberger at the lowest levels of their careers, it only adds to the risk of a sluggish showing by these two offenses.

That Juju Smith-Schuster is suspended and Jimmy Smith (Achilles) is out opens up an opportunity for Martavis Bryant, who remains an incomparable size-speed mismatch despite his struggles for this year. Roethlisberger hasn't worked well with him this year, but the opportunity should be there. As we know, though, we generally shouldn't bet on much in the Steelers offense other than Le'Veon Bell and Antonio Brown, especially in what could be one of the lower-scoring matchups of their season. Bell had a big game the last time these two teams faced, but stud Ravens nose tackle Brandon Williams wasn't around for that one.

On the Baltimore side, Alex Collins is the clear lead runner, and perhaps conditions will be better than usual with Ryan Shazier out. But the strong Pittsburgh front seven should probably still hold the advantage in that matchup, in which case the Ravens might turn more to Danny Woodhead against a defense allowing 6.3 yards per target to opposing running backs. Jeremy Maclin and Mike Wallace are both good receivers, and one of them could produce in this setting since Flacco has been throwing downfield more as of late. Wallace, of course, has the Revenge Game narrative going for him, if you're into that.

Miami vs. New England

Open: 48.5 O/U, NE -12
Press time: 47.5 O/U, NE -10.5

Gronkowski is out, Hogan is in. Hogan's claim likely won't equal the output that would have gone to Gronkowski, so the tight end's absence could leave some more usage up for grabs for the likes of Dion Lewis, Rex Burkhead, Brandin Cooks, and Danny Amendola even with Hogan's return.

If Hogan's return hurts anyone in this matchup, I would guess it's Burkhead. Part of what has made Burkhead so valuable is the production he's posted as a route runner, and he might have fewer to run with Cooks, Hogan, and Amendola providing a relatively full wideout rotation. Then again, maybe Hogan will primarily vulture some of the targets that have gone to Cooks, who's seen around ten per game since Hogan's injury. At least two pass catchers should provide good fantasy returns for New England, in any case, and you'd have to consider Cooks and Hogan the clear favorites. The Dolphins secondary probably can't cover either one. There's a theoretical opportunity for Dwayne Allen, but he just hasn't caught the ball in New England.

Gronkowski's suspension is probably cause to feel less anxious than usual if you're an owner of Lewis or Burkhead, as some of Gronkowski's typical usage could go toward the New England running game, particularly since New England is such a big favorite in this contest. They're both running well right now, and the Dolphins have been friendly to running backs on the ground (4.4 YPC).

Even in a game where the Dolphins are expected to get blown away, Kenyan Drake is an interesting play in this one if only for the fact that the Dolphins just don't seem to have anyone else who can play in the backfield. Throw in Drake's versatile, pass-catching skill set, and you have reason to expect big volume, potentially in garbage time. As Drake showed with his long touchdown run in a blowout loss to the Panthers, he can make a big impact for fantasy owners even if the Dolphins aren't competitive.

With the rest of the Miami passing game, things should flow through Jarvis Landry as usual, especially with DeVante Parker seemingly on the way out. Parker's talent is still something I believe in, but the application has been hugely disappointing the last two years. At the very least, he needs a new coaching staff. Perhaps his talent manifests in this context, perhaps not. Kenny Stills has been better this year.