This article is part of our ADP Analysis series.
When picking near the end of the first round and early in the second in average 12-team drafts, fantasy managers in need of a running back will often find themselves settling on Saquon Barkley, Alvin Kamara or Aaron Jones. In this fantasy football ADP battle, we'll evaluate each of these players.
Saquon Barkley
The last two years, Barkley has played 15 games. In that time, he posted 950 yards and four TDs. Fantasy managers need to decide if his poor production was due to Barkley returning from injuries, poor coaching, weak offensive line play or a combination of those factors. His numbers tell a troubling story. His yards per carry in the three seasons he's played at least 13 games fell from 5.0 to 4.6 to 3.7. And last year, Devontae Booker often was more productive than Barkley. Even as a receiver, despite 41 receptions, he posted just 6.4 yards per catch after averaging more than eight yards in his first three seasons. However, he has a couple factors in his favor. Coach Brian Daboll frequently used three- and four-receiver sets when coaching in Buffalo. That usually forced defenses to take a linebacker off the field to lighten the box. That should provide Barkley with more room to operate. Another positive development is that the Giants didn't bring in a high-profile backup. Matt Breida is No. 2 on the depth chart, and it doesn't appear he'll be a threat to take significant playing time from Barkley. That should lead to him seeing plenty of work on all three downs as a runner and receiver. Finally, New York shored up its offensive line by drafting right tackle Evan Neal in the first round while adding right guard Mark Glowinski in free agency. Overall, this is likely the best situation Barkley's had in his career. Now he just has to produce.
Alvin Kamara
In the first four years of his career, Kamara never carried the ball more than 194 times. He remained fresh and explosive while never posting less than 4.6 yards per carry in a season. But with Drew Brees retired last year and an underwhelming receiver group, the coaching staff had to make Kamara the centerpiece of the offense. The added work may have contributed to him suffering a knee injury and missing four games. Even though he played in just 13 games, he smashed his career high in carries with 240. That led to him having the least efficient season of his career as he posted 3.7 yards per carry. And with Brees no longer with the team, he caught just 47 passes, which was the first time in his career he failed to catch at least 81. Overall, it's hard to knock a player who produced 1,337 yards and scored nine TDs in 13 games. However, this will be the first year that Kamara will be without the play-calling genius of Sean Payton, and it's possible that the schemed plays that usually got Kamara freed up in space may not be as plentiful. In addition, with Michael Thomas, Jarvis Landry and Chris Olave potentially giving the Saints the best WR trio they've had in years, their reliance on Kamara might not be as heavy as it was last year. Finally, a possible suspension for an off-field incident reportedly might be pushed beyond this year, but the situation is uncertain. It's at least something for fantasy managers to have in mind.
Find out where Jeff Erickson has Kamara ranked in his fantasy football rankings.
Aaron Jones
When AJ Dillon emerged as a factor in the Packers' backfield last year, Jones handled 223 touches, resulting in 1,190 yards and eight TDs. Those numbers represented a major drop from Jones' prior two years. In 2019 and 2020, he averaged 267 touches, 1,508 yards and 15 TDs. If things stay the same in 2022, Jones might be more of a top-18 RB than a top-10 option. It's unlikely he sees less work than last year, so his scoring floor should be excellent. He's also been fairly durable. He's missed five games the last three seasons. Painting the upside requires some narrative. The narrative starts with the fact that Davante Adams is no longer on the team. In eight games over the years when Adams missed time, Jones saw drastic increases in fantasy production. In those games, Jones was used much more as a receiver, and his PPR points per game were up 8.8 over his career average. It's possible that trend continues, as picking up the slack for Adams will be difficult for Green Bay. With uncertainty around the Packers' WR room, it can be argued that Jones is the best skill-position player on the team (aside from Aaron Rodgers). It's possible that Green Bay keeps Dillon and Jones on the field at the same time at a high rate. Jones has already shown the ability to line up both in the slot and as an outside receiver. Should the Packers feature Jones in this capacity, he's capable of posting top-5 RB numbers.
The Bottom Line
Because Barkley hasn't been a fantasy star in four year's, I'm not willing to take him over options with fewer questions. In terms of Kamara, I'll draft him when I'm going for the safest floor, and I'm personally willing to gamble that if he gets suspended, it is in 2023. But if I'm willing to risk some floor for a narrative that could result in me hitting the jackpot, I'll select Jones.
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