Exploiting the Matchups: Time to Cook the Giants

Who else is as excited as I am that it's Josh Gordon week? This feels like a band putting out one amazing album and then coming back after a few years of hibernation to start recording again. Aside from Brett Hundley, NFL quarterback, I can't think of anything else I'm even remotely anticipating with as much excitement this week (I realize you are likely well aware Hundley is an NFL quarterback, but it feels good to remind myself after he finally looked like a competent one last week). In fact, if I wasn't a desperate Packers fan, Gordon would be the main event this Sunday.

When we last saw Gordon in 2014 he fizzled out after a hot 120-yard debut. Of course, that was seven different starting quarterbacks ago for Cleveland, and his five-game stretch that year was played with a combination of bad Brian Hoyer and Johnny Manziel. In those five games that scintillating duo combined to throw one touchdown pass. Not to Gordon. If the 2013 receiving yards leader can come anywhere near the athletic Marvel character form he flashed in last year's preseason when he caught two passes for 87 yards and a long score, it makes DeShone Kizer a legitimately useful quarterback just in time for the fantasy playoffs. As an Aaron Rodgers owner in several leagues in which I may still sneak into the playoffs, that's certainly something I'm keeping an eye on. I expect that Gordon's presence as even just a decoy will make Kizer's life dramatically easier. He's the best receiver that Kizer has suited up with since his breakout year at Notre Dame when he and Will Fuller made each other look very good.

With just one more game left for many leagues before playoffs start, I can't stress enough how imperative it is to err on the side of volume, particularly if you feel positively about your opponent this week. If you should win on paper, then play the guys that should get the ball based on the last 2-4 weeks of usage trends. While there are certainly still some extremes you either want to target or stay away from in terms of defenses, the reality is that opportunity trumps all else this time of year. If you're hurting for that last flex spot due to injury or disappointing play from someone you'd typically count on (I'm looking at you, Dez Bryant), don't be afraid to look at a lesser talent if they're getting the ball or should get the ball based on attrition in their offense (spoiler alert for the wide receiver upgrades).

Before getting on with it, I'd be remiss if I didn't acknowledge another former starter re-emerging from what feels like a league banishment these last few years. Geno Smith is coming back to far less fanfare and with far less expectations, but when he takes that first snap on Sunday it will mark the end of an era for an iconic franchise. Even my Packer love does not give me joy to see Eli Manning's streak end. As a fan of all things football, I can appreciate all that he accomplished over those 200-plus games and to a degree feel sorry for him and Giants fans (my brother-in-law is legitimately in mourning), though the end of an era does often lead to new excitement. It's time for the Giants to go find their Carson Wentz. I hope like hell they don't. But that should be the goal of every team looking to create a winner. Good luck to Geno this week and Eli moving forward. They both deserve the chance to compete for a shot at new success.

As always, this is not intended as a traditional start/sit piece. Upgrades are guys you wouldn't roll out every week while downgrades are generally lineup mainstays for whom you may want to consider an alternative based on elements of their opponent/situation. With that out of the way, let's get to it.

UPGRADE

Quarterback

Andy Dalton, CIN vs. PIT

Dalton now has at least 328 yards or multiple touchdowns in every game since Week 3 in which he didn't play the Jaguars. That included Cincinnati's first meeting with the Steelers in which Dalton tossed two first-half touchdowns before the offense fell apart in the second stanza. In fact, his 140 yards in that contest were his second fewest of the season to only the shellacking he took from Jacksonville. But things are different now. Pittsburgh's secondary has been disastrous since losing Joe Haden to a broken leg early in their victory over the Colts. Since that injury the Steelers have allowed an atrocious six passing scores of at least 39 yards due to broken coverages. Jacoby Brissett, Marcus Mariota and even Brett Hundley each threw for at least 220 yards and produced multiple scores while attempting just 83 combined passes versus Pittsburgh. Dalton, who has seen each of Brandon LaFell, Tyler Boyd and Alex Erickson step up with a score in that same timeframe, is involving more than just A.J. Green, and against this undisciplined back seven he'll take advantage just like the lesser passers before him have.

Brett Hundley, GB vs. TB

The third-ranked Steelers passing defense, which prior to Week 12 boasted a 9-to-12 TD-to-INT ratio, just got torched by Hundley for 245 yards and three touchdowns on only 26 attempts (9.4 YPA). Although he struggled badly versus a Baltimore defense ranked second against the pass the week prior, Hundley made corrections, remained confident and completed big throws. Coverage mistakes and his talented receiving weapons helped him. And those same things will be there for him to lean on against a Buccaneers defense that's dead last in passing yards allowed (284.6). For a No. 2 passer in two-QB and superflex leagues, Hundley is among the best options this week.

Blaine Gabbert, AZ vs. LAR

Determining a spot starter or flex option (in superflex formats) does not always have to be about a favorable opponent. Sometimes recognizing changes with a particular offense or team that the player in consideration suits up for is equally important. In this case, it's impossible to ignore what Gabbert has done in two starts for Arizona. After throwing for over 250 yards and three touchdowns against a bad Texans pass defense he solidified that credibility with a 241-yard, two-score effort in a clutch performance versus easily the league's best pass defense in Jacksonville. Even more impressive is the fact that he generated such numbers while the Jaguars held Larry Fitzgerald to 12 yards on eight targets. When the Rams offense makes plays and forces Gabbert to do likewise, there will be a far different result than the 33-0 beating Los Angeles put on the Cardinals in London back in October when a Carson Palmer injury opened the door for Gabbert's third chance at NFL success.

DeShone Kizer, CLE at LAC

Yes, yes, I know. This one at face value looks like a head scratcher. The Chargers defense is red-hot and has been one of the best against the pass all season. The Browns are still winless, and Kizer's 14 interceptions leads the league even though 21 quarterbacks have attempted more passes. Great sell so far, huh? Well, here's the deal. The Bengals are top five in most statistical categories against the pass, including completion percentage, YPA, yards, touchdowns and sacks. And yet somehow Kizer found his way to season bests of 268 yards and 8.7 YPA against them, adding 39 yards and a score on the ground (his fifth rushing TD, tying him for most among QBs). Corey Coleman's return has given him a big-play threat and opened the middle of the field for other players to find space. And just what do you think Josh Gordon's return opposite Coleman will do? Kizer may turn it over a couple times, but with easier throws and legitimate, game-changing weapons to make him look good, the yards will come. With them, scoring opportunities will be there too, especially when the Chargers get an inevitable lead and play more prevent defense as they did versus Tyrod Taylor (196 total yards, two scores in the second half) two weeks ago.

Running Back

Adrian Peterson, AZ vs. LAR

Peterson has lacked consistency as a Cardinal as he's posted 42 or fewer yards in half of his six contests while the other three accounted for exactly 400 yards with none below 99. His big games have corresponded with Arizona's three victories in his time there, but he's still seen double-digit touches in all three of their losses as well. With Blaine Gabbert making the offense far more competitive (he's thrown five touchdowns in his two starts), Peterson has a nice shot at redemption versus a Rams defense that's struggled defending tailbacks for much of the season. Only two teams have allowed backs to produce more rushing yards (111 per game), and only one has given up more touchdowns (13).

Jamaal Williams, GB vs. TB

Since beating the Giants in Week 5, the Buccaneers have been gashed by running backs in nearly every game. They allowed over 50 scrimmage yards each to three Patriots tailbacks, gave up at least 97 yards and two touchdowns to four different backs and even let Damien Williams gouge them for over 100 scrimmage yards on only 11 touches. (Jamaal) Williams has dominated touches in the Green Bay backfield in the two-plus games since Ty Montgomery aggravated a rib injury versus Chicago and has turned at least 21 touches into a minimum of 74 yards in three straight. Although he's lacked efficiency on the ground in that stretch (3.2 YPC), Williams' stellar play as a receiver (nine grabs, 114 yards, one score) has greatly boosted his productivity. With that kind of volume versus a struggling defense, finding better flex option will be awfully difficult.

Derrick Henry, TEN vs. HOU

Through 10 games the Texans had allowed one rushing touchdown to a tailback. For Henry owners, who've seen the bruiser catch only seven passes all season, that would have been a bit concerning. Houston's 11th game, however, saw them allow rushing scores to both Javorius Allen and Alex Collins, with the latter posting 60 ground yards. Henry, who may have finally established himself as the lead rusher in Tennessee after outgaining DeMarco Murray 79 yards to just nine while registering nearly the same number of carries, should get a healthier workload in a game that the Titans badly need to win in order to stay at the top of the AFC South.

Isaiah Crowell, Duke Johnson, CLE at LAC

Despite winning the last two weeks by a combined score of 82-30, the Chargers remain dead last in rushing yards allowed per game (133.5) and per carry (4.9). They've also given up the most receptions and fourth most receiving yards to tailbacks. In just their last four games, the Bolts have been shredded by tailbacks for 685 scrimmage yards and four touchdowns. Crowell, in particular, has been peaking down the stretch with at least 95 scrimmage yards in three of his last four and two scores in that timeframe. In those three outbursts, he's averaged at least 5.6 YPC while using his vision and burst to rip off a run of 20-plus yards in each. Johnson, meanwhile, has been a bit steadier with 67 scrimmage yards or a score in eight of his last 10 performances. With Josh Gordon now lining up opposite Corey Coleman, boxes will be less stacked for Crowell and the middle of the field will be wide open for Johnson to exploit out of the backfield/slot.

Wide Receiver

Jamison Crowder, WAS at DAL

Dallas has decided to no longer defend the pass. On Thanksgiving they gave up an embarrassing eight pass plays of at least 20 yards while Keenan Allen schooled them. And this came less than a month after Crowder himself had a then-career-game with nine catches and 123 yards against the Cowboys. Just hours after Allen torched them for 172 yards, Crowder reset his career-high total with 141 yards on Thanksgiving night. The unquestioned No. 1 target for Washington when healthy, the dynamic slot receiver has 42 targets, 27 catches and 412 yards in his last four outings, with no less than 76 in any of them. Expect him to stay highly involved in a crucial divisional matchup that will bury the playoff hopes of the losing team.

Jermaine Kearse, NYJ vs. KC
Here's a quick rundown of receivers to hurt the Chiefs in their last five games: Zay Jones (TD), Cole Beasley (two TDs), Terrance Williams (nine catches, 141 yards) and Amari Cooper (210 freaking yards, two TDs). Oh, and to further exemplify how bad the Chiefs have been defending wide receivers, Terrelle Pryor had a season-high 70 yards (29.2 percent of his season total) and his only score against them. Coming off the first regular-season game of his career with 100 yards and a score (against a very good Carolina D mind you), Kearse is peaking at the right time and poised to do damage against a Kansas City defense that's allowed a league-high 16 scores to wideouts.

Jordy Nelson, GB vs. TB

With Nelson having generated a measly 103 yards in Brett Hundley's five starts, this one requires a good deal of faith. But there is definitely reason to believe when considering that Tampa Bay has allowed 18 more catches and over 200 more yards to wide receivers than any other defense. The Bucs' corners are too sloppy for a sound route-runner like Nelson not to thrive. And although Hundley has struggled badly at times, the fact that he's thrown for over 200 yards in four straight offers cause to be optimistic about Nelson finally producing like himself again.

Dede Westbrook, JAC vs. IND

In their last eight games the Colts have allowed 14 wide receivers to post at least 60 yards or a touchdown against their leaky secondary. Westbrook, who missed the first nine games of his rookie season after having core muscle surgery in September, has seen 16 targets in just two career games. The volume didn't translate to much (nine catches, 76 yards), and was due partially to Allen Hurns (ankle) being out and Marqise Lee fighting tighter coverage and an injury of his own (knee), but it's nevertheless encouraging. Volume is king this time of year, and against an Indianapolis defense that's been consistently generous to wideouts – including when the Jags had three guys reach 60 yards in their last meeting – Westbrook could finally make good on the playmaking potential he flashed as the preseason's leading receiver (298 yards in three games).

Cordarrelle Patterson and Johnny Holton, OAK vs. NYG

PSA: these are not for the faint of heart in any seasonal format outside of those that significantly reward return yardage (for Patterson) or long touchdowns (for Holton). With Michael Crabtree suspended and Amari Cooper trending towards an absence from both a concussion and injured ankle, Patterson and Holton stand to substantially benefit. Each wideout is explosive in his own right – Patterson as an elusive playmaker in space and Holton as a vertical threat – and they've evidenced that this season with three gains of 40 or more yards apiece. Now opportunity will marry with circumstance to form a delicious recipe for big plays. The Giants are one of five defenses to have allowed at least 125 catches, 1,700 yards and 10 touchdowns to wide receivers, and after a couple valiant, pride-saving efforts, they will return to full-on tank mode after the disheartening benching of team leader Eli Manning and in the absence of top corner Janoris Jenkins, who underwent season-ending ankle surgery this week.

Tight End

Jared Cook, OAK vs. NYG

The zero-catch performance the Giants held Vernon Davis to is the exception, not the rule. Cook whiffed on an opportunity to put up nice numbers against a Denver defense that has recently bled yards to tight ends, but he won't blow two great chances in a row. New York went 10 straight games allowing at least 40 yards and a score to the position, and Cook has two 100-yard efforts in his last five. He's going to bounce back, likely drawing plenty of targets in the absence of Crabtree and Cooper.

Jack Doyle, IND at JAC

The Jaguars have only allowed a tight end to top 70 yards twice this season, but both of those performances have come in the past four games. Doyle, who's averaged a whopping 9.0 targets in his last six contests, will almost assuredly get the opportunities against a Jacksonville defense that discourages throwing to wide receivers. The Colts' top target on the season now has as many catches as T.Y. Hilton and Donte Moncrief combined, including at least six catches in five of the last six contests. Facing the fierce pass rush of "Sacksonville," Doyle figures to remain a popular checkdown option for Jacoby Brissett.

DOWNGRADE

Quarterback

Matt Ryan, ATL vs. MIN

Even with Julio Jones going bananas on the Buccaneers for over 250 yards and two TDs, Ryan barely topped 300 yards and still threw only one touchdown. With Tevin Coleman and Devonta Freeman (when healthy) running well, Ryan has not always been needed in Atlanta's victories. And even when he has been needed he's struggled to deliver big games, yet to throw three touchdowns in a single outing. Against a Vikings defense that's tied for the fourth fewest passing touchdowns allowed (12), there's little room for upside with Ryan in this critical NFC clash.

Ben Roethlisberger, PIT at CIN

Roethlisberger was both prolific and clutch in a primetime win over Green Bay at Heinz Field, but as per usual with Big Ben his home and road splits have been glarin. On the heels of back-to-back four-score games at home, he's averaging 2.4 touchdowns at Heinz Field and only 1.3 on the road. Moreover, his opponent certainly won't make for a welcoming trip. The Bengals' top four cornerbacks are all former first-round picks, and aided by the strength of their play and a relentless front seven, Cincinnati ranks among the top five defenses in numerous pass defense categories, including completion percentage, YPA, yards, touchdowns and sacks.

Cam Newton, CAR at NO

This is somewhat simple. If the Saints' secondary returns Marshon Lattimore (ankle) and Ken Crawley (groin) from injuries, Newton is in for a very long Sunday afternoon. Playing a Jets defense that entered last week as one of five teams to have allowed 20 passing touchdowns, Newton came up with his second worst effort of the season throwing the ball, completing just 11 of 28 passes for 168 yards and no scores. His worst effort came against the Lattimore-led Saints defense way back in Week 3 in Carolina. If Lattimore can suit up, Newton's numbers may not be much better than the 167 yards and three interceptions he threw for that day.

Tyrod Taylor, BUF vs. NE

In his last three and a half games that were not against the Saints, Taylor has racked up eight total touchdowns, including three with his legs. Unfortunately, despite the magnitude of this contest and Taylor's recently sharp play, his chances of staying fantasy friendly this week look slim. After allowing a deluge of yards and touchdowns to quarterbacks through mid-October, the Patriots adjusted and have done a total 180 defensively. They've only allowed six offensive touchdowns in their last five contests, and no quarterback has thrown for more than one score or 240 yards against them in that span. Taylor has the chance of saving the day with his ability to scramble for chunk yards, but with Kelvin Benjamin (knee) sidelined, he doesn't look like the guy that will overcome New England's stingy pass defense.

Running Back

Kareem Hunt, KC at NYJ

Hunt hasn't topped 78 scrimmage yards since Oct. 19 and hasn't scored a touchdown in eight straight contests. The phenom we saw in the season's first five games when the Chiefs went 5-0 has been anything but of late, culminating last week in a rock-bottom 12-touch, 26-yard stink bomb against a Buffalo defense that had just allowed a disgusting 689 scrimmage yards and nine touchdowns to opposing running backs in the last three games. For comparison, the Jets have given up 255 yards to running backs the past three games, and they haven't even allowed nine touchdowns to the position yet this season.

Tevin Coleman, ATL vs. MIN

Sorry, Coleman owners. It was great while it lasted. But sticking by his side this week is akin to desperation. For starters, Devonta Freeman is back from a two-game absence due to a concussion. His legs are fine and rested. Coleman was already going to be in trouble in this one even before Freeman returned to cut his touches in half, but that certainly compounds the pain his owners will feel. After getting the ball more than 60 times and tallying over 240 yards and four touchdowns the last three weeks, Coleman's touches figure to be far less fruitful against the Vikings' second-ranked run defense. Minnesota is giving up 3.4 YPC to opposing tailbacks and has allowed a league-low four touchdowns to the position.

Leonard Fournette, JAC vs. IND

How badly is Fournette's ankle hurt, one must wonder. After stuffing the stat sheet with seven touchdowns in his first six career games, Fournette has come back from injury/team discipline to go on a three-game scoreless streak that has seen him twice produce less than 50 scrimmage yards while averaging a paltry 2.0 YPC. In the third game he did grind his way to 118 yards against Cleveland on 30 touches, but will Jacksonville really give him that kind of workload on a bad wheel when the Colts rank 30th in defending the pass? Fournette's ankle kept him out of the 27-0 beating the Jags put on Indy in their first meeting when fellow power back Chris Ivory was held to 48 yards on 17 carries (2.8 YPC). While benching Fournette in season-long formats is risky because of the likelihood he gets at least a dozen carries, DFS players may want to think twice.

T.Y. Hilton, IND at JAC

This requires no real explanation, just heeding. Jacksonville had some surprising breakdowns in their pass defense against Arizona, but they've still allowed just two touchdowns to wide receivers on the year. Hilton, who managed only two catches for 27 yards in Week 7 against the Jaguars, is simply impossible to trust this Sunday.

Sammy Watkins, LAR at ARI

Watkins has scored in three of the last four games and has assumed a co-No. 1 receiver role with Cooper Kupp while Robert Woods (shoulder) is sidelined. Watkins' owners who may have enjoyed his recent value boost, however, will want to look elsewhere this week. Watkins has burned elite corners in the past, but Jared Goff is not one to take that kind of risk regardless of Woods' absence. Goff showed that when he directed just five of his 37 pass attempts to Watkins — who was primarily covered by Patrick Peterson — in the first meeting between these teams. Peterson has only really been burned this season by DeAndre Hopkins (and on just one drive, at that).

Josh Gordon, CLE at LAC

For those knocking on the doorstep of the playoffs and thinking of getting cute this week, this message is for you. Don't do it. Just don't. What Gordon can do for the Browns this Sunday is play an excellent decoy and open the field for others to succeed more easily. His reputation alone could warrant coverage from Casey Hayward, Pro Football Focus' highest graded cornerback through 12 weeks. As of this writing, Hayward was absent from Chargers' practice due to the tragic death of his younger brother in a car accident, but should he still be in the lineup this weekend, it's possible an inspired performance will completely shut down Gordon in his much-anticipated return to the field. And even if Hayward doesn't suit up, the rest of the Chargers defense has also been playing at a high level recently.

Tight End

Kyle Rudolph, MIN at ATL

Rudolph is coming off a season-high 63 yards and his only multi-score performance of the year, but he's going to be awfully hard-pressed to keep up such a high level of play against Atlanta. With Deion Jones and De'Vondre Campbell boasting a ton of speed at linebacker alongside the hard hitting of safety Keanu Neal, the Falcons have limited tight ends to just two touchdowns and 6.7 yards per target. They held Rob Gronkowski to three catches for 51 yards on seven targets in Week 8, and while Jimmy Graham did score on them two weeks ago, it took him 11 targets to compile 58 yards. Rudolph offer a similar blend of size and athleticism, but unless he sees unusual volume, he's not likely to even fair as well as those two stars.