Exploiting the Matchups: Parker Poised for Success

So if defense wins championships, what do you do when you can't stop your opponent?

I've referenced my favorite home league numerous times in this column dating back to 2014. It's a keeper league, Simpsons-themed -- I'm the Spiderpigs -- and typically pretty high-scoring. The league is in its ninth season and I finally convinced one of my best friends to join when a spot opened up this summer. Of course, Week 2 rolls around and his ridiculously deep team drops me to 0-2.

Then, when gloating Tuesday afternoon at the gym about taking down "the expert," as I'm sarcastically known in this league, he hits me with this pearl: "The most important stat in fantasy football is points against." And with my mind exploding in front of my face -- Terry Crews Old Spice style, of course -- I realize how right he is. And I stop internally panicking.

You see, I'm the third-highest scoring team in this league. I've got Aaron Rodgers, Lamar Miller, Matt Forte, Allen Robinson and Brandin Cooks to headline the Pigs (remember it's a keeper league; I walked in with Miller and A-Rob). Things will be OK. Unfortunately, so far I've played terrible "defense." In fact, I've had just shy of 34 points more scored against me than the next closest team.

Sadly, there's no adjustment that can be made to battle the points-against stat. Occasionally if I'm facing a stacked opponent with great matchups I may make a swing-for-the-fences type of upside play (usually with a guy you'd read about below in the upgrades section), but beyond that you don't want to tinker too much with your lineup simply because you've had a run of bad draws with the schedule. That's why if you're sitting at 0-2 and have a healthy roster with any kind of depth (like my Pigs), the cardinal rule of fantasy remains: play your best players. Things should even out over the next few games.

When injuries strike -- as they did like a plague last week -- who those best guys are can get pretty cloudy, however. Leading us (meanderingly, I'll admit) to here.

This column is here every week to help you get a real bead on what replacement parts are actually set up for success when they're getting their shot. Last week was especially rough on running backs, but that doesn't mean Jerick McKinnon, Fozzy Whittaker, Charles Sims, Jay Ajayi and Theo Riddick are immediately in your lineup. They should be owned everywhere, of course, but in some cases they need to prove themselves as feature backs and in others they're playing elite defenses.

As always, this is not intended as a traditional start/sit piece. Upgrades are guys you wouldn't roll out every week while downgrades are generally lineup mainstays, but for whom you may want to consider an alternative based on elements of their opponent/situation. With that out of the way, let's get to it.

UPGRADE

Quarterback

Matt Ryan, ATL at NO

Can you say shootout? The Falcons have allowed seven touchdown passes through two games with just one pick and now play Drew Brees and Co. in the Superdome in primetime. Ryan has been disrespected a bit and forgotten with the rise of numerous young gunslingers, but his 730 yards are second in the league, and with some new weapons supporting his favorite stars, he'll stay hot in NOLA.

Marcus Mariota, TEN vs. OAK

Late game scores have saved Mariota's numbers each of the first two weeks, but he won't be making owners sweat this Sunday when he faces an Oakland defense that's bled production through the air – 69.2 percent completion rate, 819 yards and seven touchdowns allowed. Mariota may not boast the same weapons as Drew Brees and Matt Ryan, but this defense simply can't defend the pass.

Carson Wentz, PHI vs. PIT

Wentz has quickly displayed the ability to make every throw in the book, which is fortunate for Eagles fans because he figures to be attempting an awful lot of them against the Steelers. A balanced Pittsburgh offense has built leads and forced teams to the air, particularly as one of the league's best front sevens, led by Ryan Shazier, has shut down the run. Wentz' weapons are underrated, but after this week his poise in the pocket and deadly arm certainly won't be.

Dak Prescott, DAL vs. CHI

Two-quarterback league alert! Prescott hasn't thrown a touchdown yet this season, but that will soon end. So while the Bears have limited other passers, particularly in the yardage department, have no fear about rolling with the ultra-steady rookie in formats that start two QBs. A Bears offense that's struggling and sans Jay Cutler (thumb) will provide short fields, while a defense hit even harder by injuries -- linebackers Lamar Houston (ACL) and Danny Trevathan (thumb) as well as defensive tackle Eddie Goldman (ankle) -- won't provide much resistance.

Running Back

Devonta Freeman & Tevin Coleman, ATL at NO

Forget what the Giants' subpar backfield did against a still-sorry Saints defense. Remember that the Raiders' tailbacks gashed New Orleans for 192 total yards and three touchdowns on the ground. The Atlanta O-line is closer to Oakland's than it is New York's patchwork group, and Freeman and Coleman are shaping up to be a great one-two punch. Each has averaged at least 66.0 scrimmage yards per game, making them both nice flex plays this week.

Frank Gore, IND vs. SD

No one has tried to run on the Chargers because San Diego has bolted out to big leads in both their games (see what I did there??). Expect that to change, however, with a Colts offense that's missing Donte Moncrief (shoulder) and trying to protect the oft-battered Andrew Luck, who's already been sacked seven times and hit another 15. Frank Gore should get it early and often against a defense that has allowed 4.7 YPC to opposing tailbacks, and when he's not rushing it, he should still be productive facing a back seven that's given up more receptions than any defense to running backs (23).

Charles Sims, TB vs. LA

The dumpster fire that was the entire Tampa Bay team last week in Arizona was far from representative of what this offense, and particularly Sims, is capable of doing with opportunities. And now with Doug Martin (hamstring) out, opportunity is knocking big time for the slippery, one-cut runner who averaged 4.9 yards per carry and 11.0 yards per reception in 2015 while totaling over 1,000 scrimmage yards as Martin's sidekick. Sims should be in for a big workload to showcase those skills regardless of game flow, but it certainly doesn't hurt that the Rams will be about 3,000 miles from home and boast nine stinking points to their name.

Jay Ajayi, MIA vs. CLE

Can you say "game flow?" The Dolphins fell a combined nine points shy of Seattle and New England on the road to open the season and figure to be awfully amped to finally play football in the "Sunshine State." With the Browns on their third-string quarterback already, and without rookie playmaker Corey Coleman (hand), Miami could build a nice lead and grind out the clock with Ajayi, who will draw the bulk of backfield duties in Arian Foster's (groin) absence. That he gets the pleasure of facing a defense that's allowed 267 scrimmage yards to tailbacks is gravy.

Wide Receiver

DeVante Parker, MIA vs. CLE

Never mind that Parker's target volume spiked last week primarily because Miami was getting wrecked by the Patriots. Those 13 targets proved two things: One, Parker's hamstring is fine. And two, he's going to be a huge part of this offense (last year's target goblin, Jarvis Landry, also saw 13). This week the former first-rounder will get to feast on a Browns secondary that is one of only four defenses to allow four or more touchdowns to wide receivers through the season's first two weeks.

Michael Floyd, AZ at BUF

Only the Saints and Raiders have allowed more yards to wide receivers this season, so a meeting with the Bills could be exactly what Floyd needs. He found the end zone last week but has notched just 69 yards over two games. Buffalo just let three Jets receivers turn in at least 92 yards, and on a rough road trip, the Cardinals may look to replicate that production with their top-notch trio of pass catchers.

Kenny Britt, LA at TB

Very quietly Britt is sitting at 21st in receiving yards (161) after two games despite the Rams operating the league's least productive passing offense. The Rams were smashed in their last road contest at San Francisco and could find themselves playing from behind again facing a quality Buccaneers offense on the opposite coast. Britt turned in an impressive 94 yards facing Seattle's "Legion of Boom" last week and could continue improving if he can find the end zone against a defense that is tied for the most TDs (five) allowed to wideouts.

Victor Cruz, NYG vs. WAS

Forget the fact that Cruz has historically stuck it to his division rival (three 100-yard games in five meetings). Only five defenses have relinquished more yards to opposing wide receivers than the 209.0 per game Washington is averaging, and while Josh Norman and Co. are busy tracking the whereabouts of Odell Beckham and rookie stud Sterling Shepard, expect Eli Manning to look for his old buddy. Cruz's comeback should continue to build after a four-catch, 91-yard outing that flashed the playmaking ability that once made him a fantasy darling.

Golden Tate, DET at GB

The Lions' defense could be exactly what the Packers offense needs to get on track, as they're almost equally bad versus the pass and run (296.0 and 110.5 yards allowed per game, respectively). Tack on a mediocre rushing offense facing a Green Bay group that's allowing a ridiculously bad 1.6 YPC and you have the recipe for Matthew Stafford slinging it 50-plus times. With Sam Shields still not cleared from a concussion and Casey Heyward's talents now in southern California, Tate could abuse whatever neophyte corner tries to hang with his savvy route-running.

Tavon Austin, LA at TB

The Buccaneers have allowed a whopping 230 receiving yards to running backs through two weeks, giving up at least 95 to one tailback in each contest. Since Austin is as much a satellite back as he is a wide receiver, and the Rams don't know how to pass to Todd Gurley, expect some short throws and long runs for this speedster.

Tight End

Coby Fleener, NO vs. ATL

That's right. Coby-freaking-Fleener. Few tight ends have driven fantasy owners crazier in this young season. Billed as a top-10 option because of the Drew Brees effect, Fleener has done nothing to live up to the hype, catching a miserable 3-of-12 targets for a pathetic 35 yards. The silver lining: he's still getting targets. And versus a Falcons defense that's allowed three different tight ends into the end zone and at least 64 yards each week to the position, Fleener can finally do something with them (you know, if he catches them first).

Gary Barnidge, CLE at MIA

It's difficult to upgrade any pass catcher who will be seeing targets from a third different quarterback in as many games, but in the case of Barnidge, he's got a tasty matchup with a Dolphins defense that has allowed 18.9 yards per catch to opposing tight ends. Moreover, the Cody Kessler effect is two-fold. One, his inexperience on the road versus a physical and veteran front-four should help Miami to open a nice lead. And two, the rookie third-rounder figures to look towards his tight end security blanket all day, especially with Coleman (hand) sidelined. When the smoke clears, you may need a third hand to count the targets Barnidge sees in this one.

DOWNGRADE

Quarterback

Andy Dalton, CIN vs. DEN

Dalton is the league's leader in passing yards. Denver is the stingiest overall passing defense (just 5.4 yards per attempt allowed). They just got done holding both Cam Newton and Andrew Luck to under 200 yards passing and one score -- both All-World QB's threw for four TDs in their other games this year, by the way. So yeah, this is not the week to take Dalton's prodigious yardage into battle.

Kirk Cousins, WAS at NYG

The Giants just held Drew Brees to 263 yards and only one touchdown on 44 attempts. The defensive rebuild may not be 100% complete, but it sure looks awfully good so far. They've only allowed one passing touchdown, and coincidentally, Cousins has thrown just one this year. So although Washington's leader is third in the league in passing yards, this does not look like the game to bet on him climbing out of his funk.

Sam Bradford, MIN at CAR

Not that anyone is anointing Bradford or anything, but still, it bears mentioning that there is a big difference between traveling to Carolina and opening a stadium against the division rival. Stefon Diggs is a heck of a fun new toy for Bradford, but he may be missing the guy behind him in this one while he faces the toughest defense he'll see all season outside of practice.

Running Back

Todd Gurley, LA at TB

The Buccaneers' blazing fast linebackers are making it awfully tough on opposing running backs so far this season. The 3.0 yards per carry they've allowed are the third fewest of any defense, and more alarming if you're a Gurley owner is that they've given up a long run of just 10 yards over 51 carries. Until Case Keenum can scare a defense with his arm, don't expect Gurley (who doesn't even have 100 yards on the ground through two games) to fight them off with his legs.

Carlos Hyde, SEA vs. SF

The Seahawks defense has allowed more yards receiving to running backs (117) than it has rushing (100), and no tailback has found the end zone against a unit allowing 2.9 YPC to the position. Since Hyde is a minimal threat as a receiver and only averaging 3.3 YPC on the ground, pencil him out of your lineups for this brutally physical rivalry game.

Ryan Mathews, PHI vs. PIT

Pittsburgh's balanced offense controls the clock and scores early, forcing teams to throw -- the 30 rushing attempts they've faced are tied for the fewest in the league. When teams do hand it off, it's to little success versus the Steelers athletic front seven, as they've allowed just 3.4 YPC. That means for Mathews, who is averaging only 3.5 YPC, finding the end zone may be the only thing to save his fantasy day.

Wide Receiver

A.J. Green, CIN vs. DEN

After Green exposed Darrelle Revis in Week 1, the Steelers committed their defensive focus to shutting him down and did just that. And they did so with far weaker personnel in the secondary than Denver. Expect the elite duo of Aqib Talib and Chris Harris to make this stud earn everything, and don't be surprised when Giovani Bernard and Tyler Boyd are the pair leading the Bengals in receiving again.

Demaryius Thomas, DEN at CIN

The Bengals have shut down Brandon Marshall and Antonio Brown in consecutive weeks. What more convincing do you need?

DeSean Jackson, WAS at NYG

The Giants' secondary is allowing just 9.8 yards per catch to opposing wide receivers, the lowest mark in the league. Jackson is a long ball guy, of course, but if he doesn't snag one in this contest don't count on much production. Translation: do you really want to trust Kirk Cousins' deep ball placement right now?

Tight End

Kyle Rudolph, MIN at CAR

Sure, Rudolph has kicked the season off nicely with at least six fantasy points in both games. And, yes, he might be needed even more with Adrian Peterson (knee) out and the ground game suffering. Let's not get carried away though with a visit to Luke Kuechly and Co. on deck. The Panthers loaded linebacker corps can shadow tight ends with the best of them -- Vance McDonald's fluky catch-and-run notwithstanding.

Dennis Pitta, BAL at JAC

After hauling in 9-of-12 targets for over 100 yards last week, it seems official to say Pitta is back to full strength after his career came to the brink of extinction due to a twice-dislocated hip. It means he should absolutely be owned in every league. It does not, however, mean that he should start versus a Jaguars defense that has allowed just five catches and 44 yards to tight ends. Telvin Smith is easily one of the fastest linebackers in the league and his constant presence around Pitta should dissuade Joe Flacco from looking his way so often this week.