Exploiting the Matchups: Manning the Bench?

Yup, it's about that time of the season. Our lineups are looking far different than we envisioned them in August. A big wave of injuries escorted us into the start of the bye weeks, meaning a ton of talent is suddenly missing as we look to fill out a competitive lineup. Dalvin Cook (knee) and Chris Carson (ankle) were the only notable season-ending injuries, but top end talent like Ty Montgomery (ribs), Davante Adams (head), Marcus Mariota (hamstring) and Derek Carr (back) could also miss time and leave their owners facing some roster shuffling. It's a lot to handle with Atlanta, Denver, New Orleans and Washington on bye.

Fortunately, the most beautiful and most basic element of football is starting to emerge. Yes, I said "fortunately." Just hear me out.

Roster turnover in-season is inevitable and it's the never-ending plot twist that makes the sport so intriguing from one week to the next. In Week 1 names like Aaron Jones, Elijah McGuire, Alex Collins, Jaron Brown and Devin Funchess were barely on the minds of many fantasy owners, but now these could be pivotal players in a Week 5 victory, and perhaps lineup regulars in the near future. You see, that's the beauty. The next man up/best man plays nature of the game keeps things tantalizingly unpredictable.

I say this not to set a safety net for myself in case this week's calls or any future calls miss wildly. Of course none of us can predict the future, but I don't bring up the unpredictable nature of injuries and opportunities to give myself the out. I hate the out. I LOVE the unforeseen.

The unpredictability of doors closing and windows opening challenges my ability to assess talent, scheme, matchup, etc. And that pseudo scouting is why I (and I think many others) love fantasy football. It's also what I believe better equips me to "see" into the future and predict outcomes more accurately than my opponents.

So my advice heading into the bye weeks in the wake of some significant injuries is very simple: trust your eyes. The five names I dropped 183 words ago were certainly intentional. They're examples of guys that pass my eye test. I drooled over Jones' UTEP highlights after Green Bay drafted him, and have raised eyebrows at McGuire and Collins' shared ability to see creases before they open and burst to get through them while shedding arm tackles. There's little substitute for vision and decisiveness in a runner. Both Brown and Funchess have size and are hands-catchers who possess the body control to win in tight coverage. They're the types that can earn the trust of a quarterback in a hurry and ultimately receive high target shares in their respective offenses. Traits are what coaches look for too, of course, but beyond that they look for confidence. For playmakers who want to be that next guy. As much as a skill set can be visible, so too can an "energy" be seen if one watches closely enough (just go re-watch highlights of the retired Steve Smith if you don't know what I mean).

For years I've relied on the eye test to make in-season adjustments and tough lineup calls, and as we approach a stretch of games in which setting optimal lineups will get increasingly difficult, it's that "safety net" I recommend we all put in place. Step 1: stock talent. Step 2: start talent. It sounds simple, but regarding the second half of the equation, yes, you have to put weight into extreme matchup circumstances.

Which of course brings us to why we're here. Enjoy the beauty of another week laced with surprises. And keep a close eye on the body language of anyone with a new opportunity. He could very well be your next waiver claim and future starter.

As always, this is not intended as a traditional start/sit piece. Upgrades are players you wouldn't roll out every week while Downgrades are generally lineup mainstays for whom you might want to consider an alternative based on elements of their opponent/situation. With that out of the way, let's get to it.

UPGRADE

Quarterback

Carson Palmer, AZ at PHI

With David Johnson (wrist) sidelined and a ground game stuck in reverse, Palmer leads the league in passing attempts and has piled up at least 325 yards in three straight contests. It's a trend that isn't likely to stop this week given the shoddy secondary play by the Eagles and the derailed pass rush with an injured and possibly absent Fletcher Cox (calf). The Eagles just allowed Eli Manning and Philip Rivers to pile up at least 347 yards and multiple scores in consecutive weeks, and their struggles versus veteran gunslingers are not about to stop.

Brian Hoyer, SF at IND

The biggest indictment of the Colts defense is that they allowed DeShone Kizer to produce three touchdowns (two passing, one rushing) despite the rookie's bare cupboard of receivers and general inaccuracy and poor decision-making. A week later, they allowed Russell Wilson to do the exact same thing (forgivable yes, but noteworthy nonetheless). Coincidentally, Hoyer's best outing resulted in two passing touchdowns and one rushing score. He has not generated a touchdown in any other game, of course, so this is certainly meant for two-quarterback and superflex leagues only, but don't be surprised if he exits the weekend with another multi-score performance.

Josh McCown, NYJ at CLE

The sell here is simple: EVEN Joe Flacco threw for multiple touchdowns against the Browns. Jacoby Brissett tallied three total scores facing this mistake-prone team, and Andy Dalton carved them up without the services of Tyler Eifert (knee/back) and John Ross (knee) to the tune of 25-of-30 passing for 286 yards and four TDs. For those keeping score, that's nine total touchdowns to Flacco, Brissett and Dalton when the trio has combined for just five additional visits to the end zone in the other 33 quarters they've played collectively. McCown certainly has not been lighting the world on fire and the Jets would prefer to lean on their ground game, but for two-QB and superflex leagues, he offers a safe floor.

Jay Cutler, MIA vs. TEN

For the truly desperate owners in two-QB and superflex formats, Cutler is someone to consider despite a very rocky start to his Dolphins "career." Tennessee has allowed a whopping nine total scores to opposing passers the last two weeks, and Cutler certainly has the surrounding talent to produce numbers. For those keeping any faith in the Fins, take solace in knowing that sooner or later they'll stumble into multiple offensive touchdowns in the same game. In their home opener (that's right, Hurricane Irma cancelled their only true home game in the first four weeks), Miami has as good a chance as they'll get to make trips (plural) to the end zone until they play the Patriots.

Running Back

Duke Johnson, CLE vs. NYJ

Johnson cannot be looked at as just a PPR option any longer. After all, his touchdowns the last two weeks have both been on the ground. In fact, given the injuries to tailbacks across the league, one could argue that Johnson has already navigated his way into an every-week starter in most formats. This week he's particularly appealing, however, given that the Jets defense rolling into town has allowed the eighth most scrimmage yards to opposing running backs (656), including at least 49 receiving yards to three different guys.

Wayne Gallman, NYG vs. LAC

Paul Perkins mustered only 13 yards on nine carries against a depleted Tampa Bay front seven and ended last week on the sidelines with a rib injury. In his first action of the season, Gallman ran with determination and generated a Giants' season-high of 42 rushing yards. He also notched a touchdown reception to finally give Big Blue some semblance of a backfield threat. Now the fourth-round pick figures to be leaned on as the No. 1 tailback against an undersized Chargers defense that's been gouged for the most rushing yards in the league by running backs (611).

Alex Collins, BAL at OAK

Since Week 2 the Raiders have allowed 4.3 YPC to opposing running backs, while the position has piled up 583 scrimmage yards and a score against them. Collins, who has gashed two straight opponents for 82 yards on nine carries, demands a bigger workload despite his ball security problems. The bottom line for Baltimore is they need players who can create chunk yardage and generate first downs (he has six runs of more than 15 yards on only 25 carries). Given that Collins' 8.2 YPC leads the league by nearly a full yard, it's hard to imagine the Ravens not calling his number often in a matchup that could be a slugfest without Derek Carr (back) under center for Oakland.

Elijah McGuire, NYJ at CLE

Raise your hand if you think the Jets are going to rush back Matt Forte from a toe injury to push McGuire back to third string when he only needed 12 touches to rack up 131 yards and a score against a supposedly stacked Jaguars front seven. That's right, hands in pockets. The Jets don't want to stunt the growth of one of their most exciting young players any more than McGuire's fantasy owners want that. So expect him to see double-digit touches again versus a Browns defense that's allowed a touchdown to four different running backs in their last three games. McGuire could even see bonus action if Cleveland buries itself beneath a double-digit deficit for the fourth time in four weeks.

Wide Receiver

Brandin Cooks, NE at TB

This is a reminder not to get cute and forsake Tom Brady's big-play threat. It would be hard to blame someone for not considering Cooks for a week on the bench. After all, he's currently tied for 50th in targets with just 24. That's right. A ridiculous 49 players have received more opportunities to make plays. And that's with Brady being fourth in pass attempts (155) and first in yards (1,399). Fortunately for those worried about Cooks, next up is a Buccaneers defense that's allowed at least 190 yards to wide receivers in all three games they've played. That total has translated to a league-worst 225.3 yards allowed per week to wideouts. Cooks should eat for the second time this year.

Jaron Brown, AZ at PHI

See Palmer, Carson. This Brown, not to be mistaken with his diminutive teammate "John" Brown, is Palmer's only outside receiver with any serious size (6-2, 205), and when the Cardinals have aired it out recently the bigger Brown has been a prime beneficiary. In the last three outings the fifth-year vet has amassed 29 targets and produced at least 73 yards or a score in each of them. Emerging as a favorite of Palmer's while the smaller Brown (quadriceps) and J.J. Nelson (hamstring) nurse injuries, the less-heralded J. Brown in the Arizona passing attack could feast against an Eagles secondary that has allowed a whopping 565 yards and four touchdowns to wide receivers in just the last two weeks.

DeSean Jackson, TB vs. NE

All four quarterbacks to face New England, including Alex Smith, Deshaun Watson and Cam Newton, have thrown for at least 300 yards and multiple scores. All that love can't possibly go to Mike Evans, of course. Although Jackson has yet to fully develop timing and rhythm with Jameis Winston, if there was ever going to be a time for them to just "click," this would be it.

Nelson Agholor, PHI vs. AZ

Deep leaguers alert! Agholor has quietly tallied at least 58 yards or a touchdown in three of four games this year and leads the Eagles with 14.4 yards per reception. Now he gets to benefit from the Patrick Peterson effect. Agholor will be working primarily out of the slot while Peterson is likely glued to Alshon Jeffrey for 60 minutes, as he typically does with every No. 1 wide receiver he faces. That leaves Agholor to pick up the slack.

Tight End

Hunter Henry, LAC at NYG

Play. Tight. Ends. Against. The. Giants. It's very simple. Four games in the books, FIVE tight ends who have produced double-digit fantasy points facing a Giants defense that doesn't have a clue how to cover them. Henry may scare owners who were burned by his two goose egg performances, but his other two outings resulted in at least 7.5 points in standard scoring. This week, fortunately, he's a sure thing.

Cameron Brate, TB vs. NE

See Jackson, DeSean. And add to that this fun tidbit: the Patriots have allowed at least 60 yards or a touchdown to a tight end in every game this year, and that did not include Travis Kelce, whom they faced in Week 1. Brate is coming off a score in consecutive games and four of his last five contests dating back to 2016, so don't be surprised when he remains a favorite of Jameis Winston's in the red zone.

Austin Seferian-Jenkins, NYJ at CLE

Tight ends to own Cleveland thus far: Jesse James, Benjamin Watson and Tyler Kroft. James and Kroft combined for over 100 yards and four touchdowns, while Watson nearly reached 100 yards on eight grabs against a back seven that loses tight ends in coverage constantly. Seferian-Jenkins has been back with the Jets for just two weeks following a two-game suspension and already he's tied for second on the team in targets during that stretch. Featured player, tasty matchup. See where this is going? And, yes, that's now THREE Jets upgraded. Talk about your unpredictable.

DOWNGRADE

Quarterback

Ben Roethlisberger, PIT vs. JAC

Roethlisberger has struggled to connect on home run attempts and it's reflected in his 6.84 YPA, which is just 23rd in the league. A matchup with the Jacksonville corner tandem of Jalen Ramsey and A.J. Bouye doesn't figure to result in improvement in this area, as the pair has helped the Jaguars limit opposing passers to a lower YPA (6.0) than all but four teams. After starting with 263 yards and two scores in Week 1 at Cleveland, Roethlisberger has seen his yardage decrease each week as Le'Veon Bell's workload has gone up. Considering that Jacksonville is first in passing defense (147.0 yards per game allowed) but dead last in run defense (165.5 YPG), it seems Roethlisberger will continue trending down.

Eli Manning, NYG vs. LAC

Scoring more than 20 points in back-to-back games for the first time since the first two weeks of last November, Manning has finally hit his stride. He's taken advantage of a diverse set of weapons to tally more than 650 yards and five touchdowns in those games. Playing from behind for the majority of those outings led to nearly 50 pass attempts in each, however. That might not be the case against a 0-4 Chargers team that is scoring a meager 18.0 points per game and could be without their leading tackler due to an ankle injury. With Wayne Gallman emerging last week as a semi-competent ground threat, the Giants could easily find themselves slowing down a closely contested score. After all, quarterbacks facing the Chargers have averaged only 28.3 pass attempts per game while their tailbacks take advantage of a unit that's allowed the most rushing yards to the position this year.

Deshaun Watson, HOU vs. KC

The Kansas City defense has been awfully stingy to opposing quarterbacks on the road where they've held both Tom Brady and Philip Rivers out of the end zone. In fact, this historically prolific duo combined to go an embarrassing 36-of-76 passing for 504 yards, no scores and three interceptions (all by Rivers) when the Chiefs visited. Watson has been remarkable the past two weeks, but let's not overlook the fact that the Patriots and Titans defenses he carved up have allowed the first and second-most fantasy points to opposing QBs, respectively. Moreover, Watson still threw a combined three interceptions against them, and he's just two weeks removed from passing for a meager 125 yards and no scores against the Bengals. Before anointing the seemingly unflappable rookie, let's see what he can do with Justin Houston breathing down his neck and Marcus Peters blanketing the right side of the field.

Running Back

Marshawn Lynch, OAK vs. BAL

It's encouraging to consider that Lynch might get a heavy workload with Derek Carr out with a back injury, but with Michael Crabtree (chest) banged up and Amari Cooper playing terribly, that train of thought seems far too glass half full. The Ravens will stack the box against a running back that has generated just 30 yards on 15 carries the last two weeks while daring E.J. Manuel – he of a career 58.5% completion rate – to beat them with his arm.

DeMarco Murray, TEN at MIA

Murray owners need to understand how limited the Tennessee offense will be if Matt Cassel has to take over again this week for an injured Marcus Mariota (hamstring). Last year Murray thrived as a dual threat that piled up yardage as a rusher and receiver, yet this year he's tallied only 28 yards receiving while averaging 3.4 YPC outside of his 75-yard touchdown jaunt against Seattle. In Cassel's one start in 2016, Murray touched the ball 12 times for a measly 19 yards. The Dolphins have allowed just 3.2 YPC to opposing tailbacks, meaning Ndamukong Suh and Co. are just another reason to bet against Murray this week.

Mike Gillislee, NE at TB

Do you feel lucky? Because that's the game one plays when opting for Gillislee over a running back that offers more scoring duality. With no catches on the season and more than 15 carries just once, Gillislee needs to get goal-line scores or return to the uber-efficient runner he was the last two years in Buffalo to have any shot at producing quality fantasy numbers. The Buccaneers have limited opposing tailbacks to a pathetic 2.7 YPC, so the latter seems unlikely. Meanwhile, Dion Lewis stole some goal-line work last week and cashed in a short score, so even Gillislee's primary source of value is no longer assured.

Doug Martin, TB vs. NE

Martin may be the healthiest running back on a lot of fantasy rosters, but that does not necessarily make him a good option given this week's unusual circumstances. The Thursday kickoff gives Martin a short turnaround coming off a suspension, which means he'll likely have just one full practice and a walk through before suiting up for the first time since August. Despite his fresh legs, there may be some rust to shake off. Moreover, Jacquizz Rodgers actually had some really nice moments in two of Tampa's three games, so it's unlikely he'll be immediately relegated to the bench. In fact, unless a hot hand scenario develops in-game, this pair figures to cannibalize each other's fantasy value for at least one week, despite the excellent matchup.

Wide Receiver

Amari Cooper, OAK vs. BAL

Cooper has caught 31.7% of his targets and has produced a monumentally sad 15 yards on 13 targets the last two weeks. The Ravens just held Antonio Brown to 34 yards on nine targets and will have the joy of defending passes thrown by E.J. Manuel this week. Cooper fans, have a drink on me. A big, BIG drink.

Alshon Jeffrey, PHI vs. AZ

In three Eagles wins Jeffrey has scored one touchdown and failed to exceed either eight targets or 56 yards. His floor has remained okay (no game below 5.6 in standard scoring) because of volume, but that he's caught only 17 of 34 targets is indicative of a chemistry with Carson Wentz that remains a work in progress. Moreover, his targets have decreased the last two weeks (from 20 in the first two games to 14) as Philly has made a concerted effort to establish a physical ground game. Now facing Patrick Peterson, who according to Pro Football Focus has allowed just one reception per 31.2 cover snaps, Jeffrey's targets may hit a season low.

Keenan Allen, LAC at NYG

The only touchdown the Giants have allowed to a wide receiver when Janoris Jenkins was in the lineup came against the towering Mike Evans, whom Jameis Winston loves to forced feed in the red zone. Allen could also be a quality red-zone weapon, but unfortunately the Chargers actually need to find their way there first. The Chargers are 24th in points (18.0 per game) and 27th in third-down conversion rate (34.9%), so unless they start running the ball more effectively or the duo of Jenkins and Landon Collins falls asleep at the wheel in this one, Allen will struggle to produce with the consistency he's shown thus far.

Tight End

Jason Witten, DAL vs. GB

After a blistering start to the year saw Witten rack up 17 catches, 156 yards and two touchdowns, he's been a ghost the last two weeks with just two total grabs for 15 yards on six targets. And the Packers aim to keep things that way by neutralizing one of Dallas' best chain movers. Unfortunately for Witten's owners who likely don't know whether to start him, bench him or drop him, Green Bay is equipped to keep him in the witness protection program for at least one more week. The "Nitro" package they run features three and sometimes four rangy safeties in lieu of keeping inside linebackers in the middle of the field to give up easy yardage underneath and up the seam. Those safeties have helped the Packers give up just 12 catches for 106 yards to tight ends, and they'll be the reason Witten does not get back on track before Dallas' bye week.