Dynasty Watch: Players Losing Value this Winter

Yesterday, I wrote about players that have gained value in dynasty leagues since the end of the 2023 regular season, be it due to coaching changes, playoff performance or early happenings of the offseason. Now it's time to look at the other side of the coin — guys that have lost value over the past month and a half.

This isn't necessarily saying the players listed below should be traded (or dropped). In fact, there are probably cases in which their value to other dynasty managers has dropped more than it really should. Some of the younger guys listed below might even make for sensible trade targets, especially if you have a rebuilding team for which a short/medium-term loss in value doesn't matter much.  

Falling 📉

• QB Justin Herbert

Herbert is good enough and young enough — 26 in March — that there's no need to panic, but it's nonetheless suboptimal to be stuck with run-first offensive coordinator Greg Roman, even if only for a year or two. While his offenses in Los Angeles inevitably won't be as pass-averse as the ones he directed in San Francisco (Colin Kaepernick), Buffalo (Tyrod Taylor) and Baltimore (Lamar Jackson), the Chargers' new OC has already been clear about prioritizing the running game and said he experts Herbert's involvement in that regard to "probably be more as a scrambler," i.e., Roman doesn't plan to call a ton of designed QB runs. 

Herbert could still put up better numbers than he did the past two years if his team improves overall, but the fantasy ceiling we saw in 2021 (5,014 passing yards, 302 rushing yards, 41 total TDs) isn't in play for the short term. The worst-case scenario involves both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams being offseason cap casualties, with the Chargers then relying on young wide receivers, a (hopefully) rejuvenated running game and a (theoretically) improved defense to become competitive. They probably wouldn't have hired Roman and Jim Harbaugh if the plan was to rely on Herbert winning shootouts.

• WR George Pickens

QB play remains the bigger concern, but it also won't help to have a new offensive coordinator whose team finished 32nd in Pass Rate Over Expectation (PROE) last year and 31st the year prior. While he'd surely call pass plays more often if he had a better quarterback, Arthur Smith figures to come up with gameplans similar to those from his Atlanta tenure in the event Kenny Pickett (and/or Mason Rudolph) is brought back as the starter. Multiple Pittsburgh beat reporters claim that's the plan, though personally I'm skeptical. 

Regardless, the short-term outlook for Pickens is now worse than it was back in early January when possibilities included a more pass-oriented OC and assurances of a new QB*. Just remember that patience could still be rewarded; he's among the younger players from the 2022 draft class, celebrating his 23rd birthday in March. You won't find many guys that pile up 1,941 receiving yards in the NFL before turning 23.

 *I'm somewhat less concerned about Diontae Johnson for two reasons. First, his value already sank a lot the past two years and probably has more upward variance than downward at this point (even if I personally think he's a very flawed player). Second, there's a decent chance he'll get traded or become a cap casualty this offseason. 

For TE Pat Freiermuth, I'd also make the first argument, and then add that A) Smith's offense could make him an every-down player, and B) Only two teams had more TE targets than the Falcons last year (174).

• WR Stefon Diggs

The Bills announced in late January that they're sticking with interim offensive coordinator Joe Brady, whose nine-game stint (including playoffs) coincided with Diggs scoring just one TD while averaging 4.9 catches for 43.1 yards on 8.3 targets. With Ken Dorsey in charge for the first 10 games of the year, Diggs scored seven times and averaged 7.3 catches for 86.8 yards on 10.2 targets — one of the most productive stretches of a prolific career.

We're now left with all kinds of questions to answer this offseason, including trade rumors and concerns that the 30-year-old wideout is declining. physically This might be a case in which the guy's trade value is falling by even more than it should, setting up a buy-low opportunity. In one of my leagues I was offered Diggs in exchange for the 17th pick in 2024 plus a R2 pick in 2025 (10-team, single-QB, PPR league). I debated accepting but instead decided to be a bit greedy and offer a slightly better return if my league-mate would include James Conner...  and it's now been more than two weeks with no response... oops?

Anyway, it's hard to deny that Diggs' value has declined since October/November and then again a bit more this offseason. The question is by how much, and I think I put more emphasis on his strong start to 2023 than most others do, figuring he's probably still physically capable of big-time production even if the other concerns might prevent it from actually happening.

• WR Keenan Allen

Allen finished 2023 with career highs for catches (108) and receiving yards per game (95.6), only missing out on other personal bests because he missed the final four weeks with a heel injury. He saw an NFL-high 11.5 targets per game, accounting for 31.8 percent of Herbert's passes and 37.5 percent of his passing yardage. Nobody can say Allen is washed up, but he nonetheless seems unlikely to average double-digit targets again, as he'll either be playing in Roman's offense or joining a new team for his age-32 season. 

Allen is scheduled for $23.1 million in non-guaranteed compensation for the final year of his contract, including a $5 million roster bonus due March 17. My guess is that he signs an extension to increase his real-money compensation while lowering his $34.7 million cap hit, but there are a lot of possibilities on the table right now, including a trade or even release. The best possible outcome — playing with Herbert under a pass-first offensive coordinator — was already taken away with the Harbaugh/Roman hirings.

• WR Trey Palmer

If you're rostering Palmer, you've perhaps dreamed of the Bucs losing Mike Evans (free agent) and/or Chris Godwin ($20 million non-guaranteed) this offseason and installing the 2023 sixth-round pick in a top-two role. That's still possible, but all the signals coming out of Tampa Bay hint at keeping the gang together, with new offensive coordinator Liam Coen and GM Jason Licht both making it clear they want Evans, Godwin and QB Baker Mayfield to be kept together.

Palmer's 4.33 speed and ample playing time as a rookie mean he's far more interesting than a typical sixth-round pick, but one of the possible outcomes for 2024 entails dropping to fourth or fifth on the depth chart. He had only 385 yards on 68 targets (5.7 YPT) as a rookie in a pass offense that was otherwise reasonably efficient, and his 0.88 yards per route placed 74th out of the 84 WRs that ran 300 or more routes last season. Don't be surprised if the Bucs add a noteworthy WR rather than losing one this offseason.

• QB Desmond Ridder

While signals coming out of Pittsburgh suggest Kenny Pickett may get another chance, the Falcons aren't even pretending Ridder might be their guy. The 2022 third-round pick doesn't have much trade value, so he'll likely be a backup in Atlanta for the final two years of his rookie contract. Taylor Heinicke, meanwhile, figures to hit free agency again, as he has a $1.32 million roster bonus coming up March 16 and a non-guaranteed $5 million base salary for 2024.