Dynasty Strategy: Overpriced Prospects

It's time to hate. Some of the most hyped prospects will always turn out to be duds – remember when Laquon Treadwell and Equanimeous St. Brown were both consensus No. 1 dynasty prospects at separate points? – and I'm gonna try to identify the next disappointments. This series will run on some indefinite basis within the Dynasty Watch format.

But because I'm constructive and so very helpful each hate entry will come with a suggested cheaper alternative of a similar genre.

To be serious, these guys are still good prospects or better – I'm quibbling over their rankings relative to other players.

A.J. Brown, WR, Mississippi (6-foot-1, 225 pounds), Junior

Brown is a consensus top-three draft-eligible wideout, which makes him potentially the top overall dynasty prospect to many observers. I don't see it. The production is nice, but we can recall from the Treadwell case that production isn't the only thing that matters.

I do care quite a lot about production, so a Brown advocate could fairly accuse me of some hypocrisy as I try to diminish the importance of his objectively great numbers. Brown offered not just volume with 75 receptions for 1,252 yards and 11 touchdowns in 11 games last year, but extreme efficiency with a catch rate of 77.3 percent and a YPT average of 12.9. Those are elite numbers, open and shut.

I think those numbers are largely manufactured, though. I've never seen Brown line up anywhere but the slot, where it's easier to cover up a lack of speed by matching up a receiver more often with linebackers and safeties, not to mention the fact that teams tend to play their smallest and slowest corners in the slot. Brown's slot skills are legitimate – he has strong hands and a powerful yet shifty running style after the catch that will burn a defense for sloppy tackling. The issue is that his production in the slot is weighed 1:1 the same as other receivers who produce similarly at the more difficult outside receiver position, and in the meantime his numbers are propped up by YAC numbers that aren't sustainable against higher levels of competition (Brown had 51 receptions for 980 yards and 10 touchdowns in six victories last year, 24 catches for 272 yards and one touchdown in five losses).

If you're a Brown advocate, your reasoning corners you into vouching for other receivers you might not mean to. For instance, I see no one hyping Wake Forest's Greg Dortch as a top receiver prospect even though his production is similar to Brown's, and like Brown, Dortch's targets are manufactured out of the slot. Dortch and Brown were in the same recruiting class, so their ages should be similar too.

Since last year, Brown has 82 receptions for 1,345 yards and 12 touchdowns on 106 targets (77.4 percent catch rate, 12.7 YPT) in 12 games. The Mississippi offense averaged 9.3 yards per pass in this stretch. Dortch totaled 65 receptions for 871 yards and nine touchdowns in his last nine games (68.4 percent catch rate, 9.5 YPT), a stretch in which the Wake Forest offense completed 63.2 percent of its passes at 8.7 YPA.

Brown's production is of course better, but he's valuated as a first-round prospect whereas Dortch is written off as a late Day 3 dart. Particularly given that Brown totaled 30 receptions for 574 yards and six touchdowns against lowly South Alabama, UT-Martin, and Lafayette – 42.7 percent of his yardage and half of the touchdown production from his last 12 games – I think the gulf between Brown and Dortch's draft valuations is bigger than the production distinction merits.

When you run a search for past NFL wide receivers with Brown's general build, the successful examples were generally players with obviously better athleticism than Brown, namely Dez Bryant, David Boston, Jerry Porter, Donte Moncrief, and Quincy Enunwa. You can view the list here, courtesy of Pro-Football-Reference.

The one exception you might note is Dwayne Bowe, who was more of the 4.6 athlete that Brown looks like. It would be a welcome outcome – Bowe had a successful NFL career and would have been significantly better if he had Brown's work ethic. Still, Bowe made his living outside rather than in the slot, and I'm not taking it for a given that Brown matches Bowe's 4.57 40 from the combine. Someone like Ron Johnson or Kansas State Chris Harper represent the lower-range outcomes for Brown.

The alternative: Bryan Edwards, South Carolina (6-foot-3, 220 pounds), Junior

Some people rank Edwards ahead of Brown, but not many, and I expect the consensus to only solidify in Brown's favor over the course of this year. To me, Edwards is the better prospect, and certainly the more efficient return for the acquisition cost.

Edwards is taller than Brown but still well-built for his frame, and he earns his targets on the outside rather than the slot. While Brown turned 21 in June, Edwards won't even turn 20 until November. Yet in the last two years Edwards turned 192 targets into 108 catches for 1,383 yards and nine touchdowns. The 7.2 yards per target isn't good at a glance, but it's a positive when you note that South Carolina averaged 7.0 yards per pass over that span while starting a true freshman quarterback (Jake Bentley) beginning in 2016.

I would admit that Brown is likely better than Edwards today, but that Edwards is nearly 1.5 years younger means he will likely gain increasingly on Brown between now and the 2019 draft. Edwards looks remarkably similar to Michael Thomas on tape.

For broader context, here are my preliminary wide receiver rankings for the 2019 draft:

1. N'Keal Harry, Arizona State
2. D.K. Metcalf, Mississippi
3. Bryan Edwards, South Carolina
4. Jaylen Smith, Louisville
5. A.J. Brown, Mississippi

Coming up next week: Cam Akers!