This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
Denver Broncos vs. Buffalo Bills Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions for Monday Night Football, Week 10
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Monday Night Football brings an inter-conference matchup between the Denver Broncos (3-5) and the Buffalo Bills (5-4). Let's dig into the betting market and discuss three wagers that could prove to be profitable.
Broncos vs. Bills Betting Odds for Monday Night Football
Broncos: Spread +7.0 (-105), +280 Moneyline
Bills: Spread -7.0 (-115), -355 Moneyline
Game Total: 47.5 points
This line opened at Broncos -6.0 and moved to -8.5 on Oct. 31. It has since come back down to Broncos -7.5 and now -7.0. The Bills are coming off a Sunday night road loss against the Bengals 24-18 and have lost three out of five, while the Broncos pulled off an impressive win against the Chiefs, winning 24-9.
The total has bounced around in the 46.5-to-48.0 range and is now at 47.5. The trend of UNDER in the prime-time games this year is significant and I can see this number moving further down come kickoff.
Totaling bets thus far, 67 percent of the money and 49 percent of the bets are on the Broncos. There is 94 percent of the money on the Bills' moneyline, which is 95 percent of the bets. There is 47 percent of the money and 65 percent of the bets on the OVER.
Key injury situations to watch
Broncos:S Kareem Jackson, CB K'Waun Williams, S Caden Sterns (OUT)
Bills: LB Matt Milano, CB Tre'Davious White, TE Dawson Knox, S Micah Hyde, DT DaQuan Jones, CB Kair Elam, CB Christian Benford (OUT)
Terrel Bernard, Stefon Diggs (LP-Questionable).
Broncos vs. Bills Betting Picks This Week
Broncos vs. Bills Best Bet: 1st Broncos Drive Result Offensive Score (DraftKings +195) for 0.5 unit
The Broncos have scored on six out of eight opening drives and have had two weeks to prepare. The Bills defense is depleted and vulnerable.
Broncos vs. Bills Best Bet: Josh Allen OVER 0.5 interceptions (DraftKings -140) for 0.5 unit
Allen has thrown an interception in five straight and is clearly not healthy. We saw this similar result last year when he was dealing with an arm injury. The Broncos have had almost two full weeks to prepare for this game and have looked solid in the last few games.
Broncos vs. Bills Best Bet: Broncos/Bills UNDER 47.5 (FanDuel -110) for 1 unit
The 22-7 UNDER record in prime-time games is hard to ignore and I will continue to trail it in this game despite a little bit of upward movement on the total.
The Broncos are 5-2 to the UNDER in their last seven as road underdogs and the Bills are 4-1 to the UNDER in their last five.
Broncos vs. Bills Prediction
Broncos - #27 overall DVOA, #14 DVOA offense, #32 DVOA defense
Bills - #5 overall DVOA, #2 DVOA offense, #17 DVOA defense
The Bills have suffered key injuries on the defensive side of the ball and it has shown in their results over the last few games. Josh Allen is also not 100 percent again and it is showing in the box score. In the past five games, the Bills have more punts (14) than touchdowns (13). But they have been historically strong at home, going 8-2 over the last 10, 16-4 last 20 and 24-6 last 30. They are 0-5 against the spread in their last five games, with 4-1 to the UNDER.
Russell Wilson is playing a lot better than what most people might think and the Broncos come in off a strong performance against the Chiefs, but also 15 days of rest. But the Broncos have been dreadful on the road, going 2-13 last 15 and 4-10-1 against the spread.
The Bills get a key home prime-time win - Bills 24, Broncos 23.
