This article is part of our ADP Analysis series.
When the 2022 season started, the Titans were considered a strong playoff contender. In addition, the Colts and Jaguars each could make a case that they would reach the postseason. Of course, the Texans were expected to be a poor-performing squad. By the time the season ended, the Jaguars won their last five games to move to 9-8, which earned them the AFC South title and a home playoff game. Meanwhile, the Titans and Colts each lost their last seven games. Collectively, the division finished 23-42-2, though we shouldn't forget that those totals include the games played against each other, which inflated the division's aggregate winning percentage.
As we enter 2023, the Jaguars hope to take the next leap toward being a title contender. Both the Titans and the Colts could be competitive if a number of scenarios break right, though both are teams in transition. And although the Texans might continue to struggle, they likely will select their QB of the future in the upcoming draft.
Check out the current Super Bowl odds on the RotoWire Gambling page. Let's look at a few of the interesting fantasy options in the division.
Houston Texans
The Texans signed Schultz in free agency after he started his career in Dallas. The last three years he averaged 66 receptions, 667 yards, 5.7 touchdowns and 94 targets. In each of those three years, he was a clear top-10 tight end. He benefited from QB Dak Prescott, who was excellent in
When the 2022 season started, the Titans were considered a strong playoff contender. In addition, the Colts and Jaguars each could make a case that they would reach the postseason. Of course, the Texans were expected to be a poor-performing squad. By the time the season ended, the Jaguars won their last five games to move to 9-8, which earned them the AFC South title and a home playoff game. Meanwhile, the Titans and Colts each lost their last seven games. Collectively, the division finished 23-42-2, though we shouldn't forget that those totals include the games played against each other, which inflated the division's aggregate winning percentage.
As we enter 2023, the Jaguars hope to take the next leap toward being a title contender. Both the Titans and the Colts could be competitive if a number of scenarios break right, though both are teams in transition. And although the Texans might continue to struggle, they likely will select their QB of the future in the upcoming draft.
Check out the current Super Bowl odds on the RotoWire Gambling page. Let's look at a few of the interesting fantasy options in the division.
Houston Texans
The Texans signed Schultz in free agency after he started his career in Dallas. The last three years he averaged 66 receptions, 667 yards, 5.7 touchdowns and 94 targets. In each of those three years, he was a clear top-10 tight end. He benefited from QB Dak Prescott, who was excellent in finding Schultz in the soft spots presented by zone defenses. Schultz was also an effective option in the red zone. He was reliable as a receiver, but he often failed to pick up much yardage after the catch:
- Schultz had a 20th-percentile yards-after-catch rate last year.
- The last three years, he averaged 5.9 targets per game.
It's unlikely that the Texans will have the offensive success the Cowboys had, which could result in fewer opportunities for Schultz. Also, the Texans are likely to have a rookie starting QB, which will likely mean a drop off from the level of play provided by Prescott. Although Schultz has a solid chance to be a top-12 tight end, he may not have enough upside to aggressively target him in drafts.
Indianapolis Colts
In last year's drafts, Taylor was seen as the one RB with no downside. Obviously, we can never predict injuries, and he missed six games (and most of a seventh) due to ankle injuries. Before suffering a high-ankle sprain in Week 4, he averaged just four yards per carry. He improved on that number after the injury, so he was not having a good season, even when healthy. Part of the reason for his struggles can be attributed to offensive line performance. Earlier in his career, the Colts gave him outstanding blocking, but the line regressed last year. The big question going into his age-24 season is whether the blame for his disappointing season is injuries, the offensive line or if Taylor peaked in prior years:
- After rushing for 5.0 and 5.5 yards per carry his first two years, Taylor rushed for 4.5 last year.
- Taylor was ninth among running backs in fantasy points per game.
The injuries of last year can be written off as bad luck. But it's fair to question whether Taylor needs a top offensive line to produce elite numbers. It is possible that Ryan Kelly and Quenton Nelson can rebound from disappointing seasons to give Taylor the level of blocking he had in the past. However, with the Colts unlikely to have a QB that will scare defenses, he may see a lot of stacked boxes. Overall, I find it impossible to rank him outside the top-3 RBs, though I would prefer to draft him in the second round of 12-team leagues. His talent and per-game production the last three years give him an excellent floor-ceiling combination.
Jacksonville Jaguars
The last time Ridley played a full season was 2020. During that year, he was fifth among WRs in fantasy points per game. The future seemed bright for the then 25-year-old. In 2021, he was playing without Julio Jones for the first time. In the four games in which he was the Falcons' lead WR, he saw plenty of volume, averaging seven catches and 10.5 targets. However, his production wasn't elite. He averaged seven catches while posting 51-80 yards in those games while scoring once. It was fair to ask if his production slipped because he no longer had Jones to ease the coverage Ridley saw. He told the team that he was dealing with personal matters, and after playing a partial game in Week 6, he was shut down for the season. Ridley was then suspended for the 2022 season due to gambling. After trading for Ridley last year, the Jaguars hope that he emerges as Trevor Lawrence's No. 1 wide receiver. But after missing more than a year and a half, the 28-year-old is far from a sure thing.
- Ridley scored 26 TDs in 44 career games.
- In 2020 (his last full season), he caught 90 passes for 1,374 yards and nine TDs.
Even though Christian Kirk is an excellent slot receiver, Ridley likely will be the player that opposing defenses place the greatest focus on. He has an emerging star QB in Trevor Lawrence, which places him in a good situation. I'm not convinced he's more than a complementary receiver. But he should get enough volume to surpass 1,000 yards, and there is a good chance that he doesn't approach his 2020 production. I have him just outside the top-24 WRs in my rankings, and I won't reach beyond that range in drafts to select him.
Tennessee Titans
Once the top six-to-eight tight ends are off the board in yearly drafts, we're just hoping to find the next big thing. More often than not, this strategy doesn't work and there ends up being just a few reliable options. But with no sure things in that range, we keep trying. There were plenty of positives to build on when considering Okonkwo as a breakout candidate. Before being selected in the fourth round of the 2022 NFL Draft, his 40-yard time was in the 91st percentile and his explosiveness drills resulted in an 81st-percentile score. He looked the part of a breakout candidate as his role increased in the second half of the season. At times, he was lined up on the outside and showed he could win there, as well as in the middle of the field. At 238 pounds it's unlikely he'll be used much as a blocker, so his snaps could be limited. But when he's on the field, he might be the second-best receiving weapon the Titans have after Treylon Burks:
- Okonkwo gained at least 20 yards on seven of his 41 receptions. Three of those catches gained at least 40 yards.
- He had between 31-68 yards in seven consecutive games (between Weeks 9-15) despite averaging little more than 25 snaps.
Even though the Titans are likely to continue riding Derrick Henry, they might no longer have the excellent defense that used to force low-scoring games. That could result in the team needing to be more aggressive on offense. Okonkwo should be in line for a second-year jump. He also could see a bump in snaps if the coaching staff needs him as a receiver. There is certainly plenty of reason for pessimism, as his snap share and usage is far from secure. But once the top-12 TEs are off the board, invest in Okonkwo if you're comfortable going with a boom-or-bust option.
