2018 Football Draft Kit: Coaching Carousel

Player talent will always trump the impact of coaching in a league where every team essentially has the same options in the playbook, but a good coach can make his mark by figuring out which concepts are building blocks. Sean McVay engineered an instant turnaround in Los Angeles last season, signing upgrades around Jared Goff and Todd Gurley in free agency, then implementing an up-tempo offense heavy on play-action passes and crossing routes.

The Rams were a huge surprise, but there were other developments that played out as expected under new coaches last season. The 49ers continued Kyle Shanahan's tradition of piling up pass attempts and yards but not passing TDs, and the Jaguars leaned on Leonard Fournette to batter opponents between the tackles under the direction of Doug Marrone and Nathaniel Hackett.

The 2018 offseason featured a rare degree of upheaval, with 19 teams replacing either their head coach, offensive coordinator or both. Some of the changes essentially were cosmetic and hint at a desire for continuity, while others point toward major changes to come.

We'll focus our attention toward the more impactful hires, highlighting the seven teams that changed head coaches, as well as the five that ventured outside their organization to hire a new play caller. There were seven additional teams that either replaced their OC with an internal promotion or hired a coordinator who won't call plays.

HEAD COACH CHANGES

Bears – Matt Nagy

The Bears did this right, opting for continuity where they were successful (defense) and sweeping changes where they weren't (offense). The team landed its top choice, 40-year-old Matt Nagy, who accepted the job just two days after the Chiefs lost in the playoffs. The quick decision made it easy for Nagy to assemble a coaching staff, hiring former Oregon coach Mark Helfrich as offensive coordinator while retaining incumbent defensive coordinator Vic Fangio.

Nagy will call the plays, after getting mixed results upon finally taking those duties from Andy Reid last year for Weeks 13-16 and a playoff loss. The fourgame run in December decisively ended Kareem Hunt's midseason swoon and also coincided with the most productive stretch of Tyreek Hill's career (457 receiving yards), but Nagy was criticized for abandoning the run in tight games (much like his mentor).

Chicago's big-money signings of Allen Robinson, Trey Burton and Taylor Gabriel hint at increased emphasis on passing, which should lead to more snaps for Tarik Cohen. But that doesn't mean Jordan Howard will be phased out, as his poor route-running and copious drops (12 on 82 career targets) should be negated by his proficiency on outside zone runs, a crucial component of the 2017 Chiefs offense.

Part of Hunt's success came from run-pass options (RPOs), a concept that entered the mainstream public consciousness when Cris Collinsworth repeated the term ad nauseum during the Super Bowl. These plays were a big part of Trubisky's college repertoire but a miniscule part of the Chicago offense last season, whereas Nagy's offense in KC led the league by using RPOs on 17.7 percent of snaps, per Pro Football Focus.

Howard is a natural fit for the outside zone concepts that often comprise the running portion of RPOs, while Gabriel and second-round pick Anthony Miller could be dangerous on bubble screens, and Robinson and Burton can box out DBs on slants. RPOs require quick-hitting passes due to the potential for illegal man downfield penalties, but Nagy told the Chicago media his scheme will also emphasize the deep ball, even noting that he's happy to sacrifice a few points of completion percentage to keep safeties honest.

Trubisky threw more than 20 yards downfield 23 times on 330 attempts (6.9 percent) last season, while Smith did so 53 times on 505 attempts (10.5 percent). Given the team around him, Trubisky did well to complete seven of those passes for 258 yards (11.2 YPA), three TDs and no picks. With arm strength arguably his best asset, he figures to significantly increase his rate of deep passes, and likely will do so on far more total attempts per game.

Held back by Fox's conservative approach, the Bears were one of just three teams to average fewer than 61 offensive snaps last season, managing a dismal 58.4 while carrying the seventh highest run-play percentage (45.2) in the league. The hiring of Helfrich from Oregon hints at a strong desire to incorporate some no-huddle looks into a unit that ranked last in the league in pre-halftime pace (30.4 seconds per snap) last season. Nagy's Chiefs only ranked 23rd (28.5 seconds), but the gap between them and the Bears was larger than the gap between KC and the sixth-ranked team.

Titans – Mike Vrabel

The Titans replaced Mike Mularkey with 42-year-old Mike Vrabel, who lured offensive coordinator Matt LaFleur away from the Rams with the promise of play-calling duties, then enticed former Ravens defensive coordinator Dean Pees out of a one-month retirement to direct the defense. Pretty much anything would've been an upgrade over the old coaching staff, so we'll consider it a bonus that the Titans actually landed desirable candidates.

LaFleur will call plays for the first time, after serving as the right-hand man to Kyle Shanahan with the 2016 Falcons and Sean McVay with the 2017 Rams. While his experience in those prolific offenses is a great sign, LaFleur will need to come up with something a bit different to get the most out of Marcus Mariota, whose best traits – athleticism, short accuracy and quick decision-making – haven't been maximized since college.

Mularkey sought to take advantage of a strong offensive line with a runheavy approach and complex routes in the passing game, but it was never a good fit for Mariota. The 24-year-old had a dismal 42.4 passer rating last season on throws more than 20 yards downfield (9.5 percent of his attempts), but also a league-high 122.8 rating on play-action passes (23.5 percent of attempts). It's anyone's guess why the Titans – a run-heavy team with a QB who thrived on play-action – didn't rank near the top of the league in play-action usage.

Coincidentally, or perhaps not, LaFleur's last two quarterbacks both led the league in play-action rate, with Jared Goff at 29.1 percent last season and Matt Ryan at 27.6 percent the year before. We'll consider it a massive oversight if the Titans aren't throwing at least a quarter of their passes off play-action this season.

In addition to play-action rate, the 2017 Rams led the NFL in usage of 11 personnel (1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR) at 81 percent – Hello, Taywan Taylor – and moved at the fastest pace (25.4 seconds per snap) in the first half of games. The Titans, on the other hand, used 11 personnel just 44 percent of the time and ranked 26th in pre-halftime pace (28.7 seconds per snap).

The expected changes – faster pace, more quick passes, more play-fakes and more three-wide formations – sound like a strong fit for Mariota, but where does that leave Derrick Henry? The 247-pounder mentioned at OTAs that LaFleur's running game is predicated on the outside zone, which is exactly what we'd expect from a Kyle Shanahan disciple who hired his offensive line coach, Keith Carter, away from the Falcons.

It's a significant adjustment for Henry, who has mostly run inside-zone or man/power-blocking plays dating back to his time at Alabama. Outside-zone schemes typically place a greater emphasis on vision, acceleration and cutting ability (think Dion Lewis), whereas power schemes tend to favor size/speed freaks (think Henry).

The Titans signing Lewis while shifting to a new scheme is cause for at least mild concern, but Henry might be so gifted that it doesn't matter, as his acceleration and footwork compare favorably to many of the smaller backs who have excelled running outside zone. Fellow bruiser Gurley can attest to the value of playing in a more spread-out offense, after facing nickel/dime defenses on 73.8 percent of his carries last season and averaging 5.0 yards on those plays.

Raiders – Jon Gruden

Known for a West Coast offense with complex pass-game terminology and man/power blocking in the run game, Jon Gruden started calling plays as coordinator for run-heavy Eagles offenses in the mid-'90s, but his teams in Oakland (1998-01) were balanced and those in Tampa Bay (2002-08) favored an aerial attack.

Aside from his first year in Philadelphia, each Gruden team featured at least one wide receiver with 1,000 yards and five TDs, while no tight end ever reached 600 yards. That's good news for Amari Cooper and terrible news for Jared Cook, especially after Gruden made it a point to say that Cooper will be the focal point of the passing attack.

Otherwise unimpressed with the wideout group he inherited, Gruden released Michael Crabtree, signed Jordy Nelson and traded for Martavis Bryant. The 33-year-old Nelson looked utterly washed up last season, but Gruden has an oddly consistent track record coaxing 1,000-yard seasons out of big-name wideouts in their 30s – Irving Fryar, Jerry Rice, Tim Brown, Keyshawn Johnson, Keenan McCardell and Joey Galloway.

While the additions of Bryant and Nelson seem to hint at a modern attack heavy on three-wide formations, Gruden dished out $7.4 million in combined guarantees for a pair of blocking tight ends (Lee Smith, Derek Carrier) and a traditional lead-blocking fullback (Keith Smith), even trading versatile FB Jamize Olawale to make room.

After watching 340-pound guards Kelechi Osemele and Gabe Jackson miscast in a zone-heavy blocking scheme last season, Gruden seems to be angling for a man-blocking rushing attack out of formations with only one or two WRs, hoping to exploit modern defenses built to play nickel. He has the necessary personnel – namely an excellent offensive line and Marshawn Lynch – but that does involve keeping Nelson and/or Bryant off the field in favor of a TE or FB.

Jacksonville successfully implemented a similar plan last season, but the key ingredient was an excellent defense. Gruden perplexingly devoted the vast majority of his offseason resources to building the offense he wanted, opting for band-aids rather than true fixes for a defense that was terrible in 2017.

If the Oakland defense plays the way it did last season, Gruden won't have much choice but to air it out – something he was never afraid of in the past. His offensive coordinator, Greg Olson, has a notably pass-heavy track record, including a No. 4 ranking for pass attempts in his previous stint with the Raiders (2013-14) during Derek Carr's rookie season (599 attempts in 2014).

Colts – Frank Reich

Unlike the Chiefs, the Colts didn't land their first choice, settling for Eagles offensive coordinator Frank Reich after Josh McDaniels backed out of a verbal agreement. The resulting staff is a mixture of coaches recruited by McDaniels and those brought in by Reich, though the latter at least got to choose his OC, opting for a familiar face in Nick Sirianni, a 36-year-old who served as QBs or WRs coach for the Chargers the last four years.

Reich and Sirianni worked together under Mike McCoy in 2014-15 with some talented teams undone by an inordinate number of injuries. Philip Rivers topped 9,000 yards between the two seasons, despite getting no more than 856 receiving yards from any player in either campaign. Reich's offenses in Philadelphia the last two seasons had a similar spread-the-wealth mentality, though it was head coach Doug Pederson who actually called the plays.

Whatever his long-term vision might be, Reich's play calling this season likely will be dictated by the limitations of his team. Behind T.Y. Hilton, the wideouts on Indy's roster have accounted for five career touchdowns, and the defense is jarringly short on veteran talent.

Balance and spreading the wealth are nice ideas, but the best chance to compete is a heavy dose of Hilton and Jack Doyle catching passes from Andrew Luck, with Marlon Mack and Eric Ebron also involved. It's hard to imagine Reich, Sirianni and DC Matt Eberflus being any worse than the old Chuck Pagano-Rob Chudzinski pairing, but it would take a miracle to turn the 2018 team into anything more than a squad that loses a lot of shootouts (if Luck is healthy and effective) or a lot of blowouts (if he isn't).

Giants – Pat Shurmur

If you're a Giants fan, Pat Shurmur's best quality is the mere fact he isn't Ben McAdoo, who was exposed as nothing more than a rider of Aaron Rodgers' coattails, much like Joe Philbin before him. Unlike his predecessor, Shurmur hasn't had the privilege of directing an offense with a great quarterback, instead making his name by cobbling together solid units led by Nick Foles, Sam Bradford and Case Keenum.

The 53-year-old coach plans to call the plays on offense, but he nonetheless opted for experienced henchmen in OC Mike Shula and DC James Bettcher.

Shurmur rose to prominence as a QBs coach under Andy Reid in Philadelphia, and has since held three gigs as an offensive coordinator – including three seasons under Chip Kelly – along with one forgettable stint as head coach in Cleveland (2011-12). Shurmur's teams often have relied on a deluge of short passes, partially due to philosophy and partially out of necessity.
Shurmur's play calling should make for an easy enough fit with Eli Manning, who completed 27 of 118 attempts (22.9 percent) beyond 20 yards downfield the last two seasons. McAdoo's play calling might have played a role in the struggles, but it also seems Manning is just a dinker-and-dunker now.

Shurmur did fantastic work in a similar offense last season, with a shaky O-line and limited QB but impressive talent at the skill positions. His success keeping all three of Adam Thielen, Stefon Diggs and Kyle Rudolph productive in a Keenum-directed offense bodes well for Odell Beckham, Sterling Shepard and Evan Engram.

The biggest cause for excitement is Shurmur's willingness to trust a rookie running back, as Dalvin Cook got 74 carries and 16 targets in 3.5 games last year. Saquon Barkley is a better overall prospect and smoother pass catcher than Cook, making for a natural fit in an offense predicated on quick throws.

Cardinals – Steve Wilks

With the Bruce Arians-Carson Palmer era finally ending, Arizona is headed for a mini-rebuild while gathering more talent around David Johnson, Patrick Peterson and Chandler Jones. The team opted for an unexciting hire in Steve Wilks, a long-time DBs coach who finally earned a promotion to defensive coordinator last season in Carolina.

He'll hand control of the offense to Mike McCoy, who was fired by the Broncos in November. His first stint as offensive coordinator in Denver (2010-12) went much better, with McCoy showing the versatility to direct a balanced offense around Kyle Orton, a run-heavy attack around Tim Tebow and an explosive passing game around Peyton Manning.

McCoy's reputation for fitting his play calling to his personnel rather than the other way around made him a strong fit for an Arizona franchise that had no clue what its 2018 team would look like at the beginning of the offseason. Now led by Sam Bradford and Josh Rosen, the personnel hints at an offense heavy on short passes, featuring a steady diet of Johnson and Fitzgerald.

The Cardinals might like the idea of giving Johnson a ton of carries, but they probably don't have enough talent on the offensive line or defense to avoid the scenarios which necessitate a pass-dominant approach.

McCoy nonetheless figures to get the ball in Johnson's hands, having previously engineered seasons of 80 and 76 receptions for Danny Woodhead as head coach in San Diego.

In addition to Johnson and Fitzgerald, a quick-hit passing attack should work in favor of rookie second-round pick Christian Kirk, a 5-foot-10 receiver who averaged only 12.2 yards per catch but had six punt return TDs in college. Things appears less favorable for J.J. Nelson, he of the career 44-percent catch rate and 18.6 yards per reception.

The wild card is TE Ricky Seals-Jones, a converted wideout who will be sorely needed if Jermaine Gresham struggles to make it back from his Week 17 torn Achilles tendon. McCoy has shown massive variability with his use of tight ends, ranging from 54 cumulative targets on the 2011 Tebow squad to 161 with the 2015 Chargers. He typically splits the looks between multiple players, but there's no viable candidate behind Seals-Jones and Gresham.

Lions – Matt Patricia

The Lions were the only team to bring in a new head coach while retaining their old offensive coordinator, keeping Jim Bob Cooter to run the offense under Matt Patricia, who spent the last five seasons in New England as defensive coordinator. Matthew Stafford has completed 66.3 percent of his passes in 41 games under Cooter, compared to 60.5 percent in the previous 41 contests.

Cooter will still call plays, but the Lions, frustrated with the persistent failure of their rushing attack, hired veteran O-line coach Jeff Davidson, signed RB LeGarrette Blount and used their first two draft picks on C/G Frank Ragnow and RB Kerryon Johnson. The commitment to balance could impact Stafford's volume, though the plan also relies on improvement from a defense that didn't get much help (besides Patricia) this offseason.

Davidson inherits a line that started 10 combinations last year, with four starters losing multiple games to injury. The unit isn't short on talent, so we should see improvement on last year's 3.4 YPC. The increased emphasis on running shouldn't be a major problem for Golden Tate, Marvin Jones and Kenny Golladay, but it could leave fewer snaps for Theo Riddick, who already dropped to 4.4 targets per game last year.

KEY OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR CHANGES

Browns – Todd Haley

It took two seasons, but coach Hue Jackson will finally have an offensive coordinator rather than running the entire show himself. He hired Todd Haley, who has eight seasons of experience as a coordinator and three as a head coach.

Haley's offenses in Pittsburgh finished top 10 in both points and yards the last four seasons, yet they never quite seemed to reach their full potential due to persistent mediocrity in the red zone, where they ranked 12th to 19th in TD percentage each of his six seasons. The Steelers opted not to renew his contract.

Haley's love for passing is no secret and dates back to his time working with Kurt Warner in Arizona, though he did show adaptability with a 2010 Chiefs team that led the league in rushing while starting Matt Cassel at QB. Even with that season factored in, Haley's teams, on average, have finished 49th percentile for rush attempts, 46th for rushing yards and 40th for rushing TDs, compared to 62nd for pass attempts, 64th for passing yards and 68th for passing TDs.

Haley also has a consistent track record of feeding his top receivers, including the best fantasy seasons from Larry Fitzgerald, Dwayne Bowe (15 TDs!) and Antonio Brown. History suggests Haley will keep Josh Gordon, Jarvis Landry and Duke Johnson busy, rather than playing ground-and-pound with Carlos Hyde and Nick Chubb.

Haley's presence also could work in favor of Baker Mayfield, as the 51-year-old coach doesn't have any history working with a rushing threat like Tyrod Taylor.

Panthers – Norv Turner

With three stints as a head coach and now seven as a coordinator, Norv Turner is known for an Air Coryell offense that uses the run to set up deep shots off play-action, though his most recent offenses in Minnesota (2014 to mid-2016) relied more on high-percentage passes.

The 66-year-old was lured back into coaching by the chance to work with Cam Newton, perhaps believing he can help the 29-year-old rediscover his 2015 MVP form. An increased emphasis on play fakes should help, after Newton attempted only 17.6 percent of his throws off play-action last season under Mike Shula, compared to an NFL-high 29.8 percent in 2015 (also under Shula). No. 2 in the rankings in 2015? Teddy Bridgewater, in Turner's offense, at 29.5 percent.

Turner's minimal track record working with rushing threats under center is the biggest, and perhaps only, reason for pause. He's been willing to adapt to the modern game with a greater emphasis on short passing, but has yet to coach a QB with more than 209 rushing yards in a season.

The good news is that Turner just needs to stick with the same concepts that have worked with Newton's wheels, as the 66-year-old isn't planning to install a new offense, instead relying on the scheme originally installed by one of his disciples, Rob Chudzinski, in Newton's rookie year (2011). Turner acknowledged that the system evolved under Shula, but also noted that the terminology remains nearly identical to what he and Chudzinski used in San Diego.

The transition should be easy enough from a terminology and playbook perspective, and it's at least worth noting that Newton had his two best seasons for passing yards and YPA – along with his second and third best fantasy seasons – in the two years he worked with Chudzinski.

Elsewhere, the Panthers have elements of a typical Turner offense, including an oversized No. 1 WR (Devin Funchess), a one-trick-pony deep threat (Torrey Smith), a TE who stretches the field vertically (Greg Olsen) and a thunder-and-lightning backfield (C.J. Anderson, Christian McCaffrey). D.J. Moore is the biggest question in terms of fit, as his best trait is the ability to pick up yards after catch – atypical for a Turner wideout, but much-needed with this roster.

Bills – Brian Daboll

The Bills turned to the college ranks to replace Rick Dennison, tabbing Alabama offensive coordinator Brian Daboll after he engineered an impressive comeback in the CFP Championship Game. The 43-year-old broke into the NFL working under Bill Belichick and Charlie Weis, eventually earning coordinator jobs with the Browns, Dolphins and Chiefs, then returning to the Patriots as an assistant from 2014 to 2016.

Daboll will have his work cut out for him in Buffalo, taking over an offense with three young QBs, a 30-year-old starting RB and no proven WRs beyond Kelvin Benjamin. It doesn't help that the team lost three starting linemen from last season, without securing comparable replacements in free agency or the draft.

Daboll had similar rosters during his previous stints as a coordinator, working with Brady Quinn, Derek Anderson, Colt McCoy, Matt Moore, Chad Henne and Matt Cassel as his starting QBs. Each of Daboll's teams lost at least 10 games, yet they finished sixth, 22nd, sixth and fifth in rushing attempts, with Daboll sticking by the running game in an attempt to hide his terrible passers even as he was often forced to play catch-up.

The Bills figure to take a similar approach this season, hoping a heavy dose of LeSean McCoy and a decent defense allow them to stay competitive while trying to scrape up some semblance of a passing game around AJ McCarron, Josh Allen or Nathan Peterman. With the expectations for 2018 seemingly modest, Daboll may find that his main goal in the second half of the season is developing Allen for the future.

Vikings – John DeFilippo

With short-passing maven Pat Shurmur jetting off for the head job in New York, the Vikings got in on Eagles mania by hiring John DeFilippo, who essentially was the No. 3 man in Philadelphia as QBs coach behind Doug Pederson and OC Frank Reich.

While it may seem otherwise at first glance, this wasn't just a grasp at any available asset from the Super Bowl champs. DeFilippo has been a popular name on the coaching circuit for years, including a stint in 2015 as coordinator for the Browns. An ugly season in Cleveland is a rite of passage for ascending coaches, and DeFilippo was no exception, engineering an offense ranked 25th in yards and 30th in points (thanks, Johnny Football).

It wasn't all negative, as Josh McCown completed 63.7 percent of his passes with 2,109 yards, 12 TDs and four INTs in eight games while Gary Barnidge and Travis Benjamin combined for 2,009 receiving yards and 14 TDs. So, while DeFilippo only lasted a single season on a 3-13 team, he might have actually boosted his reputation.

As a former QBs coach who oversaw breakout campaigns from McCown and Carson Wentz, the 40-year-old should be a strong fit with a team that presumably plans to be more aggressive after signing Kirk Cousins to replace Case Keenum. As efficient as he was in Shurmur's quick-strike passing game last year, Keenum didn't have much success throwing deep, completing only 11 passes more than 20 yards downfield (8.2 YPA on 45 attempts).

Those deep attempts accounted for only 9.4 percent of Keenum's total, compared to 11.8 percent for Wentz in Philadelphia and 10.4 percent for Cousins in Washington. The likelihood of an increased emphasis on the deep ball could help Stefon Diggs finally unlock his full potential, and with any luck would also push safeties away from the line to free up more room for Dalvin Cook. The change feels less exciting for Kyle Rudolph and Adam Thielen, who appeared to maximize their talents in Shurmur's dink-and-dunk system.

Seahawks – Brian Schottenheimer

Seattle hired Brian Schottenheimer to replace Darrell Bevell, landing a 44-year-old coach who already has nine seasons of experience as an NFL coordinator, though he spent 2015 at Georgia and 2016-17 as QBs coach for the Colts.

Schottenheimer served as OC for the Jets (2006-11) and Rams (2012-14), often deploying run-heavy attacks to overcome the limitations of Kellen Clemens, Mark Sanchez, Austin Davis and Shaun Hill, along with a young Sam Bradford. There were also respectable campaigns from Brett Favre and Chad Pennington mixed in, but no Schottenheimer offense ever ranked higher than 13th in pass attempts or 16th in passing yards (both during the Favre season).

Schottenheimer now gets his chance to work with a top-flight QB, though it was his background in run-heavy attacks that appealed to Pete Carroll, who saw his team's offense become entirely dependent on Russell Wilson the last two seasons. The lack of backfield talent was one issue, but the bigger problem seemed to be an offensive line that couldn't execute Tom Cable's zone-heavy blocking scheme.

With Mike Solari replacing Cable as O-line coach, the Seahawks intend to use more man/power blocking, which would fit with Schottenheimer's track record from his past stops. The signing of 340-pound RG DJ Fluker and drafting of Rashaad Penny should help the renewed emphasis on the running game, though it'll be tough to stick by that plan if the Seahawks find themselves trailing more often while working in a slew of young defensive players.

Wilson has always accounted for the vast majority of Seattle's offensive touchdowns – 73.5 percent in his career – but he'll inevitable regress from last year's absurd mark of 97.4 percent. Of course, a better rushing attack would probably create a few more TDs to go around, and it would also help him boost his YPA back up from last year's 7.2, easily a career low.

Doug Baldwin likely will feel less of an impact than Wilson when it comes to volume, as newcomers Brandon Marshall, Jaron Brown and Ed Dickson are unlikely to entirely fill the void left by Jimmy Graham and Paul Richardson (178 combined targets). If things go according to plan, Baldwin and Tyler Lockett will be taking larger shares of a smaller pie.

Other Offensive Coordinator Changes

Sean McVay will still run the show in Los Angeles; he didn't even bother hiring a new OC. ... Mike Groh was promoted in Philadelphia, but Doug Pederson will still call plays. ...
Joe Philbin is back in Green Bay replacing Edgar Bennett, but Mike McCarthy will call plays. … Eric Bienemy will replace Matt Nagy as Andy Reid's right-hand man in KC. ...
Dowell Loggains is moving from Chicago to Miami, where Adams Gase calls the plays. ... Randy Fichtner, a Ben Roethlisberger favorite, is finally getting his shot in Pittsburgh. ... Jeremy Bates gets his first shot as an OC since 2010, taking over for John Morton with the Jets.

This article appears in the 2018 RotoWire Fantasy Football magazine. Order the magazine now.