2018 Football Draft Kit: Breakout Candidates

Identifying breakouts is inherently challenging, and the expected hit rate is probably lower than ever in a league where success seems to happen immediately or not at all.

Last season's big story was the dominance of rookie tailbacks, with Kareem Hunt, Alvin Kamara and Leonard Fournette the only new faces in the ranks of the RB1s. Dion Lewis and Duke Johnson surprised as high-end RB2s, but we didn't see any of the out-of-nowhere stars – besides the rookies – who were commonplace at the position a few years back.

The TE and WR spots were similarly devoid of new faces at the top, as Tyreek Hill and Adam Thielen displayed massive progress in catches and receiving yards but had their fantasy gains limited by downturns in touchdowns from the previous year. Quarterbacks at least continued a recent tradition of providing multiple veteran breakouts, with Carson Wentz and Alex Smith jumping from borderline waiver material in 2016 to weekly starter production in 2017.

Digging a bit deeper, Devin Funchess and Nelson Agholor brought back memories of the seemingly outdated Year 3 wideout narrative, finishing 21st and 22nd in PPR scoring in a down year (to say the least) at their position. Perhaps that bodes well for the 2016 wideout draft class, a group that includes Will Fuller, Josh Doctson, Sterling Shepard and Corey Coleman.

The rapid development pattern at other positions hasn't quite spread to tight end, where teams still prefer to ease in young players with part-time roles their first season or two. Recent draft picks who have shown promise but not steady fantasy production include Austin Hooper, O.J. Howard, David Njoku and George Kittle.

Our effort to identify breakouts will focus on players who have already played the better part of at least one season, ignoring not only rookies, but also 2017 draft picks who barely saw the field last year (Patrick Mahomes, John Ross, Jake Butt). We're looking for players who have already gotten some run and, for one reason or another, now find themselves in a position that could lead to obliterating their high-water fantasy production.

Sticking with the theme of earlier development throughout the league, we'll focus on players who have looked good but been limited in opportunity, rather than projecting big progress on the basis of raw skills or draft status. This year's outlook for potential breakouts is at least improved at running back, where there seems to be a better alignment of talent and likely role expansion than in past years (remember the hype surrounding Paul Perkins?).

Players like Jimmy Garoppolo and Kenyan Drake are almost too obvious to mention following their December explosions, so just keep in mind that the expectation of a breakout has largely been baked into their respective draft prices already. Our analysis will focus on players who are a bit less obvious, though still quite talented.

Marcus Mariota, QB, Titans

Mariota was forced to stifle himself for far too long under the circumspect influence of coach Mike Mularkey, whose run-heavy approach and commitment to a slow pace of play held back volume for the entire Tennessee passing game.

New boss Mike Vrabel hired 38-year-old Matt LaFleur as offensive coordinator to breathe some life into a unit featuring three of the league's best at their respective positions – LT Taylor Lewan, RT Jack Conklin and TE Delanie Walker. The trio is backed by solid interior linemen (Josh Kline, Quinton Spain, Ben Jones), an imposing backfield duo (Derrick Henry, Dion Lewis) and a diverse wideout group (Rishard Matthews, Corey Davis, Taywan Taylor).

Pass-catching depth is the one concern, as the failure to sign a proven replacement for washed-up Eric Decker means the team will rely on its 2017 draft investment in Davis (No. 5 overall), Taylor (No. 72) and TE Jonnu Smith (No. 100). Even if the upside scenario starring Davis doesn't quite pan out, Walker and Matthews will provide stability, with the former coming off four consecutive 800-yard campaigns while the latter just managed three straight seasons north of 8.7 yards per target.

LaFleur is the right man to put it all together, after spending most of the past decade working under Kyle Shanahan, then serving as Sean McVay's right-hand man on the Rams last season. LaFleur worked with Robert Griffin in 2012, Matt Ryan in 2016 and Jared Goff in 2017, with each of those seasons marked by a league-leading percentage of passes thrown off play-action, contributing to a gaudy stat line and playoff appearance in all three cases.

Next up for LaFleur is Mariota, who last season led the NFL in passer rating (122.8) and YPA (11.2) on play-action throws while ranking 10th of 32 qualified quarterbacks in play-action rate (23.5 percent), according to Pro Football Focus. Meanwhile, Goff led the league in play-action frequency at 29.1 percent, ranking second in YPA (10.6) and eighth in passer rating (109.3) on those attempts.

Nearly as encouraging, LaFleur's quarterbacks typically have put up strong numbers despite landing in the lower half of the league for percentage of throws beyond 20 yards downfield, an area where Mariota struggled in 2015 and 2017. While a dink-and-dunk approach typically isn't ideal for fantasy purposes, Mariota's best assets are his mobility, short accuracy and ability to make instantaneous decisions – a skill set dating to his time at Oregon where he thrived in a no-huddle attack full of run-pass options (RPOs) and zone-read runs.

In addition to a vastly improved play-calling fit, the switch from Mularkey to Vrabel/LaFleur should provide a boost in total offensive volume, after the Titans ranked 26th in seconds per snap in 2016 and 28th last season (28.5 seconds both years). Mariota's ascent was held back by Mularkey's preference for a glacial pace, with the Titans ranking 28th in snaps per game in 2015 (61.0), 22nd in 2016 (63.0) and 29th last year (61.1).

According to FootballOutsiders.com, the 2017 Rams led the league in pace before halftime (25.4 seconds per play), though they finished just 14th in overall pace because their tendency to hold leads often allowed them to slow things down after the break (30.0 seconds per play). They also ranked fourth with 159 no-huddle snaps, while the Titans were tied for 20th with 58, once again failing to take advantage of Mariota's comfort zone from college.

After spending the last two seasons as the second-in-charge for high-powered offenses that came out firing early in games, LaFleur can't possibly be foolish enough to keep his new QB on the same tight leash that led to the previous regime being deposed.

Jerick McKinnon, RB, 49ers

McKinnon signed a four-year, $30 million contract that puts him fifth among running backs in average annual value and ninth in full guarantees ($11.7 million). He unexpectedly ended up in his own price range among free-agent RBs, receiving more guaranteed money than Dion Lewis and Carlos Hyde combined.

Drafted 96th overall in 2014, McKinnon had a classic boom-or-bust prospect profile, with a historically great showing at the combine – where he was top-four among running backs in every drill – making up for his background as a triple-option quarterback at FCS program Georgia Southern. As it turns out, McKinnon neither boomed nor busted – at least not yet – with his athleticism looking less than advertised while his instincts and football IQ have been better.

He showed promise as a rookie, averaging 4.8 yards on 113 carries in 11 games while Adrian Peterson was suspended. With Peterson back the next year, McKinnon had only 73 touches in 16 games. The golden opportunity finally came in 2016 after Peterson suffered a major knee injury, but McKinnon averaged 3.4 yards on 159 rushes and 4.8 yards on 54 targets, stuck behind an atrocious line in an offense that produced 3.2 YPC.

Left for dead last year after Minnesota added Latavius Murray and Dalvin Cook, McKinnon unexpectedly took advantage of Cook's injury to post career highs for rushing yards (570), receiving yards (421), catches (51), yards per target (6.1) and touchdowns (five), though his YPC (3.8) remained subpar.

McKinnon hit the jackpot – both financially and otherwise – upon joining an uptempo Shanahan offense that doled out 240 carries and 88 targets to Hyde last season, with undrafted rookie Matt Breida adding 105 rushes and 36 targets. Given that Hyde finished eighth among running backs in PPR scoring and 11th in standard scoring, McKinnon probably doesn't need to play like a real-life superstar to challenge for RB1 status in the fantasy universe.

Devonta Freeman averaged 1,590 scrimmage yards, 63.5 catches and 13.5 TDs in two seasons (2015-16) under Shanahan in Atlanta, even as Tevin Coleman ate into the workload and established fantasy relevance in 2016. There's no Coleman equivalent in San Francisco, where the depth chart behind McKinnon consists of the 190-pound Breida, special teamer Raheem Mostert and a pair of 2017 draft picks who did nothing as rookies (fourth-rounder Joe Williams and fifth-rounder Jeremy McNichols).

McKinnon's track record as a receiving threat and solid reputation as a pass blocker should keep him on the field, and his size (5-foot-9, 205) is sufficient for early downs and goal-line work on a team with no true power back. Shanahan added to the hype this spring when he said McKinnon is much better than the stats suggest, noting that he's excited to see his new weapon catch passes.

Shanahan's infatuation starts to make sense when looking at stats beyond the basic box score, as McKinnon has been charged with only five drops on 151 targets since his rookie season, and he was fourth in the NFL with 9.3 yards after catch (YAC) per reception last year. He also broke one tackle for every 4.7 touches, a rate that placed him 18th among the league's 54 running backs with 100 or more touches, per Football Outsiders.

The convergence of volume, coaching and physical ability appears to be a perfect storm, especially for those who are fully convinced Jimmy Garoppolo is as powerful as Poseidon.

Marlon Mack, RB, Colts

Mack has the look of a young Jamaal Charles at first glance, wearing a No. 25 jersey over a body that appears just a bit too skinny for the NFL until you notice how fast it's moving. While unlikely to mold his straight-line speed and slippery running style into a complete package the way Charles once did, the young back nonetheless offers tremendous upside.

Mack averaged 6.2 YPC and rushed for 32 TDs in three years at South Florida, and at 5-11, 213, posted a 4.50 40 and 125-inch broad jump at the combine. He was drafted in the fourth round last year by a Colts team that had Andrew Luck at QB and no other young talent at tailback.

Naturally, he ended up stuck behind Frank Gore while Jacoby Brissett played quarterback, but Mack nonetheless was one of the few bright spots for a 4-12 team, managing four touchdowns and nine gains of at least 20 yards on 114 touches (93 carries, 21 catches). True to his reputation, Mack bounced too many runs outside and thus had an odd mixture of lossed yardage and chunk gains, with 20.4 percent of his carries (19) stopped behind the line of scrimmage while 12.4 percent (11) went for 11 or more yards – the net result was 3.8 YPC.
His penchant for big plays also translated to the passing game, where his 10.7 YPR and 6.8 YPT impressed for a tailback, and his 13.5 YAC average was tops in the NFL among players with more than 20 receptions (Todd Gurley led qualified players at 12.7). Mack proved elusive and even powerful whenever he got in space, with his rate of one broken tackle for every five touches (23 on 114) ranking 23rd of the 54 RBs with triple-digit chances, per Football Outsiders.

His rookie campaign is even more impressive considering he played the entire season with a torn labrum in his shoulder. The injury is expected to heal in time for training camp, and the Colts displayed confidence in Mack's recovery and ability during the offseason, letting Gore leave for Miami and only replacing him with draft picks in the fourth and fifth rounds (Nyheim Hines, Jordan Wilkins).

The 198-pound Hines is a serious threat to handle passing downs, but neither he nor Wilkins is likely to present much challenge to Mack for the Week 1 starting job. The Colts' decision to pass on running backs earlier in the draft is particularly noteworthy because the team had a stockpile of picks that would've made it easy to acquire any back besides Saquon Barkley.

Instead, GM Chris Ballard focused on the offensive line, drafting guards Quenton Nelson (No. 6 overall) and Braden Smith (No. 37) to join free-agent acquisitions Matt Slauson and Austin Howard. With Anthony Castonzo entrenched at left tackle and 2016 first-round pick Ryan Kelly expected back from injury to play center, the Colts may have quickly turned one of the league's worst lines into one of its best. Of course, the whole program still depends on Andrew Luck, whose presence – along with that of T.Y. Hilton – would help keep safeties out of the box for Mack and provide more scoring chances. The sky's the limit, but it does require Luck to look something like his old self and Mack to run with a bit more discipline instead of obsessing over the home run.

Aaron Jones, RB, Packers

Jones is the quintessential mid-round running back for those looking to stockpile upside at the position. The second of three running backs selected by the Packers on Day 3 of last year's draft, Jones (No. 182 overall) joined Jamaal Williams (No. 134) and Devante Mays (No. 238) in a backfield where oft-injured converted wideout Ty Montgomery was the only returning veteran. Rare as it might be for a fifth-round pick, Jones became the best pure runner on the roster the second he was drafted, following a college career averaging 6.3 yards on 658 carries and 9.1 yards on 71 catches for some rather uninspiring UTEP teams.

Jones left UTEP with a reputation for swinging for the fences, as he had at least one run of 40-plus yards in eight of 12 games his final season. His 4.56 40 time at the combine tied with Alvin Kamara for 15th among 27 running backs, but Jones made up for it by finishing in the top three at his position in the vertical jump, broad jump and each of the three agility drills – all while checking in at a sturdy 5-9, 208.

Opportunity knocked in Week 4 when Montgomery and Williams both left with injuries, kicking off a four-week stretch in which Jones rumbled for 346 yards and four touchdowns on 62 carries (5.6 YPC). He held the lead job even after both backfield mates regained their health, but the good times didn't last, as he injured his right knee Week 10. Although he returned sooner than expected, he had a minimal role behind Williams until an MCL sprain in the other knee ended his rookie season after Week 16.

Jones cemented his reputation as a home-run hitter by tying for 11th in the NFL with six plays of at least 20 yards. His rate of 20-yard gains (7.4 percent) led players with at least 50 carries, with only Mack (6.5 percent) even coming close.

His backfield mates contributed more than Jones in the passing game, but Williams (3.6 YPC) and Montgomery (3.8 YPC) were plagued by an utter lack of explosiveness, producing one 20-plus gain each on 224 combined carries.

The trio will fight for roles leading up to Week 1, and while the oft-injured Montgomery is the most familiar name and the plodding Williams did the most for fantasy owners last season, Jones is the only one with true workhorse, lead-back potential. His knee seemed to be healthy for OTAs in May, but he could be fined or suspended in conjunction with an October incident when he was charged with operating a vehicle under the influence of marijuana.

WIth any luck, the legal situation and last year's knee injury will throw the majority of fantasy footballers off Jones' scent, allowing us to scoop up the most talented running back in an Aaron Rodgers offense right around the time when others are starting to think about drafting a defense.

Stefon Diggs, WR, Vikings

Simply too good of a real-life player to spend his entire career lingering in WR2/3 fantasy territory, Diggs finally got the spark he's always needed when the Vikings signed Kirk Cousins in March, stabilizing a position manned by Teddy Bridgewater, Shaun Hill, Sam Bradford and Case Keenum the last three years.

Diggs entered the NFL in 2015 as a fifth-round pick and got off to a torrid start – which has since become a theme – but only after serving as a healthy scratch the first three weeks. He responded by catching 25 of 40 targets for 419 yards and two TDs over his first four games, but was held to 301 yards on 44 targets in the remaining nine games.

Diggs came back strong with 285 yards the first two weeks of 2016, but he finished with only 903 yards and three TDs from 84 catches (10.8 YPR, 8.1 YPT) in 14 games as the centerpiece of a dink-and-dunk Bradford offense. Last year, Diggs was on a similar path – fast start, nagging injury, slow finish – until he bounced back with 16 catches for 155 yards and three touchdowns in Weeks 15-17, followed by 14 for 207 and one very memorable TD in two playoff games.

Now a veritable expert at putting together four- or five-week stretches of elite performance, Diggs has vastly outperformed his fifth-round status yet still has a lot to prove in the final season of his rookie contract. His inconsistency is made all the more unusual by the reality that he's a proverbial jack of all trades but master of none – something which would seem to favor consistent, unspectacular output (the exact opposite of what he's done).

If the best explanation is usually the one that's obvious, in this case it's a mixture of poor quarterback play and nagging injuries. There's no way to know if this will finally be the year – if there ever is one – when he avoids the latter, but it's a safe bet that Cousins will end the first problem. Even if he never quite joins the top level at his position, there's a lot to be said for averaging 4,392 passing yards and 27 passing TDs over a three-year stretch – numbers Cousins produced on teams that were consistently among the league's most injured.

Still only 24, Diggs owns impressive career efficiency marks (8.5 YPT, 68.9 percent catch rate), accounting for 21.9 percent of his team's receiving yards the last three years despite missing eight games. Adam Thielen is a nice player, but it's hard to come up with a good reason – besides injury – why he'd finish so far ahead of Diggs in targets for a second straight year. The wideouts each should get about eight targets a game, giving Diggs enough ammo to reach WR1 turf.

Chris Hogan, WR, Patriots

Appearing in this space for a second time in three years, Hogan is finally positioned for the consistent volume his efficiency numbers and playoff track record suggest he deserves. The Patriots let Danny Amendola walk to Miami and dealt Brandin Cooks to the Rams, bringing in Jordan Matthews, return specialist Cordarrelle Patterson and sixth-round pick Braxton Berrios as replacements.

Meanwhile, presumed top target Julian Edelman is 32, already had a worrisome injury history prior to tearing an ACL last year and could be suspended four games for violating the league's policy on performance enhancing substances. Matthews was useful in Philadelphia, but there's a reason he settled for a one-year, $1 million contract plus incentives, with most teams uninterested in a butter-fingered slot receiver who had surgeries on his thumb, knee and ankle during a lost 2017 season.

Hogan is locked in as the Patriots' No. 2 WR, and all the uncertainty around him makes it rather easy to envision a scenario in which he leaps to No. 1. With Cooks and Amendola leaving 200 targets behind, Hogan figures to pick up where he left off in the Super Bowl, where a 6-128-1 line boosted his career playoff totals to 26 catches for 484 yards (12.4 YPT) and four TDs in six games.

He's also posted 9.6 YPT in 24 regular-season games for New England, highlighted by a stretch last season, Weeks 2-5, with four consecutive games catching at least four passes for 60-plus yards and at least one score. By midseason, Hogan was on pace for a 66-876-10 receiving line, but he played just one more regular-season game after injuring his shoulder Week 8.

Hogan only needed nine games last season to pile up eight targets inside the 10-yard line, landing just one behind Rob Gronkowski for the team lead while tying for 17th in the NFL. Hogan also was involved near the goal line in 2016, his first season in New England, getting six inside-the-10 looks among 57 targets. With Edelman scoring only 24 times on 425 career catches, there's little question Hogan will be the No. 2 pass-game option in the end zone for a team that's consistently among the league's highest-scoring.

Of course, the red-zone work won't be anything new and isn't enough to push Hogan toward weekly starter fantasy territory on its own. The hope is that he also absorbs some of the deep targets that went to Cooks, after operating in more of an intermediate role (12.9 YPR) last season. Hogan averaged 17.9 yards on 38 catches in 2016, ranking second in YPR and 12th in average distance downfield at the point of catch (11.3 yards).

Hogan's ability to stretch the field shouldn't come as a total surprise, considering he ran a 4.50 40 as part of a highly impressive pro day in 2011 (he wasn't invited to the combine). It also shouldn't come as a surprise that he's a late bloomer still developing at 29, as he originally played lacrosse at Penn State, then transferred to FCS Monmouth where he mostly played defensive back in his return to football. He didn't have a chance to focus on developing as a wideout until he caught on with the Bills as a special teams player in 2013.

Five years later, Hogan owns an impressive track record of capitalizing on his opportunities – particularly in big moments – and finally finds himself in a spot where getting those chances shouldn't be a problem.

George Kittle, TE, 49ers

This spot originally was intended for Hunter Henry, who was preparing to capture the hearts and minds of an entire nation before a torn ACL in OTAs pushed the plan back to 2019. Fortunately for us, Kittle is about as good as it gets in terms of backup plans – something to which 49ers fans who wanted an early pick at tight end in the 2017 draft can attest.

An unheralded 200-pound wide receiver recruit coming out of high school, Kittle caught only 48 passes in 25 games for Iowa, but he did learn how to block as a tight end in a run-heavy offense, and apparently morphed into a physical specimen along the way. At 6-4, 247, he placed third among tight ends at the 2017 combine in both the 40 (4.52) and broad jump (132 inches), proving to be one of the more explosive athletes in a loaded draft class at the position.

Kittle finally came off the board in Round 5 (No. 146) as the ninth TE selected, though he might've pushed for Day 2 status in a different draft (five teams filled their need at the position with top-45 picks). The fifth-rounder bested four of those five in yardage despite battling Garrett Celek for playing time all year, with Kittle and the Giants' Evan Engram becoming the first rookie tight ends to reach 500 yards since Dwayne Allen in 2012.

As one might expect, Kittle did his damage with athleticism rather than polish, overcoming five drops (all early in the year) to post an impressive 12.0 YPR and 8.2 YPT, albeit with only two scores among his 43 catches and 63 targets. He even earned 281 of his 515 yards (54.6 percent) after the catch, with his 6.5 YAC per reception ranking second to Vernon Davis' 7.1 among qualified TEs.

Kittle really came into his own the final three weeks of the season when he caught 11 of 14 targets for 194 yards and a TD in games against the Titans, Jaguars and Rams. Garoppolo was a big part of that equation, but it also appeared Kittle had improved, displaying his open-field prowess with gains of 44, 35, 24 and 21 yards – each of which came on a throw less than 15 yards downfield.

And while the lack of touchdowns might seem worrisome for a tight end, Kittle actually led the Niners last season with 16 red-zone targets, somehow getting 25.3 percent of his total volume inside the 20. Jimmy Graham and Cooper Kupp were the only other players with at least 10 red-zone targets who saw a similar portion of their total work in that area.

Already impressive after the catch and also a competent blocker, Kittle will take a big step forward in the scoring department if he can refine his route-running and become more comfortable working the deep seam. The Niners displayed confidence in his development when they opted against adding significant competition for snaps or targets in the offseason, leaving Kittle with a clear opportunity to push aside Celek – a solid, unremarkable 30-year-old – to capture an every-down role.

Should that scenario play out, Kittle would be well on his way to a huge jump in targets while playing in an offense that finished second in the league last season with 607 pass attempts, highlighted by an average of 308.4 passing yards in Garoppolo's five starts. With the Niners still lacking a true No. 1 wideout and still loaded with questions on defense, Kittle is primed to be one of the main beneficiaries of some high-flying affairs.

OTHERS

Jameis Winston bounced back from a shoulder injury to finish 2017 on a high note.

Jimmy Garoppolo, much like Winston, essentially already had his breakout late last season.

Mitchell Trubisky could be the 2018 version of Jared Goff – an early draft pick who actually gets some help Year 2.

Kenyan Drake was a wrecking ball in December and still doesn't have much competition.

Joe Mixon is headed for 15-20 touches per game behind an improved offensive line.

Tevin Coleman is an annual candidate, one Devonta Freeman injury away from a huge role.

Derrick Henry will be awfully busy if oft-injured Dion Lewis goes down again.

Corey Davis is deserving of a write-up, but the argument corresponds with the case for Mariota.

Tyler Lockett owns a career 8.9 YPT and Seattle badly needs a secondary target behind Doug Baldwin.

Will Fuller scored seven times in four games playing with Deshaun Watson last season.

Sterling Shepard led the NFL with 4.6 catches per game from the slot last year.

Kenny Golladay should be one of the busier No. 3 receivers.

DeVante Parker is an expert at doing just enough to keep himself on this type of list every year.

Ricky Seals-Jones made some big plays late last season, and the Cardinals need a third option in the passing game.

Trey Burton is finally out of Zach Ertz's shadow and was paid too much to be ignored.

Michael Roberts was a TD machine in college and could beat out Luke Willson for the starting TE job in Detroit.

David Njoku had 12.1 yards per catch with four TDs on 32 receptions as a rookie first-round pick last year.

This article appears in the 2018 RotoWire Fantasy Football magazine. Order the magazine now.