Beating the Book

I went 6-8-1 last week, lost my best bet (Texans, good riddance Bill O'Brien) and went 2-3 in the Supercontest. Of course, I didn't know Cam Newton wouldn't be playing in Kansas City, but I lock in the picks on Wednesday no matter what, so sometimes those developments accrue to my advantage too. 

For the podcast version of the article click here.

THURSDAY NIGHT

Buccaneers -4.5 at Bears

I made this line 2.5, so I'm on the Bears, but after watching them last week, I'm not thrilled about it. The Bucs are missing so many key offensive players and traveling on a short week, though. Take the points.

Buccaneers 19 - 17

EARLY GAMES

Panthers +2.5 at Falcons

This line was at three yesterday, and that's exactly where I set it, but now that it's moved to 2.5, I'm on the Falcons. They're terrible, but a desperate animal with a home game laying less than the full three sounds good to me. Take Atlanta. 

 Falcons 27 - 24

Raiders +13 at Chiefs

This is probably the sucker side, but I set this line crazy high so I'd be on the Chiefs. The Raiders aren't a total doormat, and they know the Chiefs well, but I didn't want to be hoping for the Raiders defense to stop Patrick Mahomes. Expect a backdoor cover by Oakland, but I'm on the Chiefs. 

Chiefs 37 - 23

Broncos +9.5 at Patriots

My specialty is concussion theory, not epidemiology (though like many I'm completing my epidemiology degree at Social Media University), so I'm not sure whether Cam Newton will be back for this one. If he is, I'd take the Pats, if not, the Broncos. I made the line 7.5, but I'll go against that and take the Pats, guessing Newton will be back. 

Patriots 27 - 17

Rams -7.5 at Football Team

I made this line 6.5, so I'm on the Team. It is what it is. 

Rams 24 - 17

Jaguars +6 at Texans

I originally set this line at six, but moved it to 3.5 on second thought. The Texans are a desperate animal, and they could get a dead-cat bounce from the long-overdue canning of Bill O'Brien, but based on the quality of play so far, this line seems big. Take the points. 

Texans 27 - 23

Bills -1 at Titans

I made this line the straight three -- Bills second straight road game after a cross-country trip, 3-0 Titans coming off a bye after making it to the AFC title game last year. Take Tennessee. 

Titans 27 - 24

Cardinals -7 at Jets

This is hilarious. I'm assuming Joe Flacco is playing, so I set this at Cardinals minus 10.5, while Jeff Erickson during our "Guess The Lines" segment on SXM made it a pick 'em! We've probably never even been six points apart on any game, let alone 10.5. The book split the difference, albeit closer to my number, but I'm obviously on the Cardinals, who are not good and traveling cross country for an early game, but Flacco is basically Brian Hoyer at this point. 

Cardinals 28 - 17

Eagles +7 at Steelers

I have this at 6.5, so I'm on the Eagles, but concerned about the offensive line. The Steelers are undefeated and coming off a bye, but haven't been especially dominant, especially against the Texans. Take the points. 

Steelers 23 - 17

Bengals +13 at Ravens

I think the Bengals turned a corner last week, and I expect them to show up. I also think the Chiefs showed how to slow down the Ravens -- sell out to stop the run, let Lamar Jackson beat you through the air. It's easier said than done, but I think Joe Burrow and co. keep it somewhat competitive. Take the points. 

Ravens 31 - 20

LATE GAMES

Dolphins +8 at 49ers

I made this line 11.5, thinking Jimmy Garoppolo would be back, but apparently that's far from a sure thing. I suppose I'll stick with it and take the Niners, but I'm just guessing. 

49ers 28 - 19

Giants +9.5 at Cowboys

Maybe I'm a homer, but I made this line only three, so I'm on the Giants whose offensive line and defense played much better last week. The Cowboys can light it up, but their defense is among the worst in the league. Take the points. 

Cowboys 26 - 23

Colts -2 at Browns

I made it Colts minus 2.5, so I'm on them. Philip Rivers terrifies me, but the Colts defense should throttle Baker Mayfield.

Colts 23 - 20

SUNDAY NIGHT

Vikings +7 at Seahawks

I set this at 6.5, so I'm on the Vikings. Seattle will score points, but its defense has been bad, and the Vikings have found something with Justin Jefferson after a slow start. 

Seahawks 30 - 24

MONDAY NIGHT

Chargers +7.5 at Saints 

I like Justin Herbert, but the Chargers defense is missing Melvin Ingram, and the Saints should get Michael Thomas and possibly Marshon Lattimore back. Lay the wood. 

Saints 30 - 20

For the podcast version of the article click here.

I went 6-8-1 last week to bring my season-long record to 31-31-1, lost my best bet (Texans 2-2) and went 2-3 in the Supercontest to go 8-11-1 overall. Last year, I finished 127-123-6 on the regular season, 8-9 on best bets and 43-40-2 in the Super Contest. In 2018, I went 141-106-9 on the season, 10-7 on best bets, 48-36-1 in the Super Contest. From 1999-2019, I've gone 2,690-2,496 (51.9%), not including ties.