This article is part of our East Coast Offense series.
East Coast Offense Year 12
This column is still around which means in order of descending importance to me: (1) The Supervolcano or some other civilization-ending cataclysm has not yet occurred; (2) I'm still alive; and (3) RotoWire is still in business.
East Coast Offense started in 2006 as a way of getting some of my work up on Yahoo Sports, and it continued past the life of that deal as the place where I discuss anything on my mind even tangentially related to the NFL or fantasy football. It's honestly the hardest column for me to write each week because I have no idea what it'll be about until it arrives via brain waves or whatever mechanism one might use to describe the way ideas occur to a person who one second prior was preoccupied with something else. The column is therefore thematically inconsistent, of varying length and alternately dead serious or almost entirely in jest depending on the week. It's almost always posted by Tuesday night, though.
Players I don't Own
I'm in 10 leagues this year, not including a Yahoo one where it was stuck on auto-draft for four rounds due to my "co-owner" not logging out before it started, five MFL best ball leagues and a Fantasy Index league I outsourced to Vlad Sedler because I was in Lisbon, Portugal (where I'm living again this year), and it started at 3:00 am my time.
You can view my teams here.
Here's who I don't have on any of them:
David Johnson, Le'Veon Bell. Antonio Brown, Odell Beckham, Mike Evans, LeSean McCoy, Melvin Gordon, Devonta Freeman, DeMarco Murray, Doug Baldwin, Demaryius Thomas, DeAndre Hopkins, Keenan Allen, Leonard Fournette, Travis Kelce, Lamar Miller, Isaiah Crowell, Aaron Rodgers, Alshon Jeffery, Drew Brees, Tyreek Hill, Michael Crabtree, Marshawn Lynch, Martavis Bryant, Larry Fitzgerald or Kelvin Benjamin.
How is it possible none of these players landed on any of my 10 teams? They fall into two categories: (1) Players I didn't get due to draft/auction circumstances; and (2) Players of whom I wanted no part at anything close to their ADPs.
The first category players are Bell, Johnson, Brown, Beckham, Freeman, Baldwin, Thomas, Fournette, Kelce, Rodgers, Brees, Bryant and Benjamin. I like all of them just fine where they typically go, and I expect most of them to have good seasons, though obviously I hope they do not.
But I think Evans is a second-round talent at a first-round price, McCoy is in a potential wasteland, especially if the Bills move on from Tyrod Taylor midseason, Gordon is in a great spot, but I don't trust him to hold up, Murray has too much hard mileage and the younger, fresher Derrick Henry behind him, Hopkins can't overcome substandard quarterback play, Allen is a possession receiver with no big-play upside even in the unlikely event he stays healthy, Miller has never been able to shoulder a heavy workload, Crowell is an average back on a weak offense, Jeffery is an injury-prone wideout on a new team, Hill is a gadget player in a weak passing game, Crabtree is slow, past his prime and inefficient, Lynch is 31 and a returning after a year off, and Fitzgerald is 34 and coming off a year where he averaged a paltry 9.6 YPC.
Despite all the things I got wrong last year, my Category 2 list wasn't bad: Julio Jones, Lamar Miller, Adrian Peterson, Rob Gronkowski, Dez Bryant, Brandon Marshall, Sammy Watkins, Jordy Nelson, Cam Newton, Aaron Rodgers and Jamaal Charles. The only players I was really wrong about were Nelson and Rodgers. Jones was fine, but not a major source of profit where he was drafted.
It's funny because I expected to be wrong about two of them:
That said, I'm quite sure at least two of the players I intentionally passed on (Group 2) will have monster seasons. But if I knew who they were, I obviously wouldn't have passed on them.
Of course, it's easier to predict failure than success. There are a number of reasons for it, but the simplest explanation is the pool of drafted players in the aggregate always fail to live up to ADP. Because undrafted players wind up in the top 100, 50 and occasionally 20 every year, they necessarily displace those whose ADPs put them there during the preseason. Put differently, the top-100 by ADP can never fill the entire top-100 by season-ending rankings.
Because the pool of drafted players fails to live up to ADP in the aggregate, any particular player is on average a bad bet to live up to his particular one. As such picking players who fail is easier than picking players who succeed. Once again, I expect 2-3 on my Category 2 list to do well, but like last year, I don't know who they are, and if I did, they'd obviously be off the list.
20 Non-Obvious Predictions for 2017
I've done this each of the last few seasons with mixed success. That's another way of saying success mixed with failure or just mixed failure. Here are last year's for point of reference. Remember these are non-obvious, and no amount of mixed failure will deter me from making them in 2018, either.
1. Andy Dalton will be a top-10 QB on a per-game basis (min 10 games)
Right now Dalton's NFFC ADP is 17, so I'll count it as non-obvious, even if it's obvious to me. Dalton had 8.4 YPA in 2015 and was in the MVP conversation before he got hurt, gets A.J. Green, Gio Bernard and Tyler Eifert back and added rookies John Ross (4.22 40) and Joe Mixon (another strong pass-catching back.) Plus, Dalton gets extra points with his legs (11 rush TD last three years.)
2. Cam Newton will be a top-5 QB on a per-game basis (min 10 games)
Newton had a top-five all time fantasy QB season in 2015 and was the top QB per ADP last year, so what's really changed? He once again has an easier schedule (last year's was one of the league's toughest), he's got Kelvin Benjamin now two years removed from ACL surgery, Devin Funchess in Year 3, and two dynamic rookies in Christian McCaffery and Curtis Samuel. Moreover, Newton was hurt last year and was healthy enough this summer to play in a preseason game. He also vows to keep running.
3. Brandin Cooks will be a top-five receiver
People are speculating about whether Danny AmendoLOLa will have a significant role in Julian Edelman's absence because Amendola is famililar with the slot. Or maybe it's Rex Burkhead, according to one scribe. Don't overthink this. The Patriots will get the ball into the hands of their best players as often as possible, and those players are Rob Gronkowski, good for 120 or so targets if he's healthy and Cooks, who could see most of Edelman's 159 from last year. Given Cooks' hyper efficiency (10.0 YPT last season), that would be Antonio Brown territory. For a more detailed argument, click here.
4. Larry Fitzgerald will not be a top-40 per-game PPR WR (min 10 games)
His current ADP in the NFFC is 25, but unfortunately he does not get extra points for leading the NFL in catches in 2016. Fitzgerald turned 34 last week, and his 9.6 YPC last year shows his expected decline is well under way. For a more detailed argument, click here.
5. Todd Gurley will be a top-5 back on a per-game basis (min 10 games)
Gurley was the consensus No. 2 back by ADP last year, and nothing has changed for the worse since. Jeff Fisher is gone, Jared Goff has a season under his belt and Sammy Watkins is around to keep defenses somewhat honest. The talent and opportunity are there.
6. Carlos Hyde will be a top-10 back on a per-game basis (min 10 games)
Kyle Shanahan's system worked wonders for the Falcons, and Hyde has a better body of work heading into 2017 than Devonta Freeman did heading into 2015. Moreover, Hyde has the backfield all to himself, as his main competition, Joe Williams went to IR, and Tim Hightower was released.
7. Jay Ajayi will be a top-five back on a per-game basis (min 10 games)
He was a monster last year, and the team has raved about him this offseason. He also gets four games against the Jets and Bills and should see more work in the passing game.
8. Hunter Henry will be a top-five TE on a per-game basis (min 10 games)
Henry tied for the NFL lead in TE scores with eight last year as as rookie on a meager 53 targets. Rookie TEs rarely do anything, so Henry is a major outlier already, and he's reportedly clicking with Philip Rivers this summer.
9. Jimmy Graham will be a top-three TE on a per-game basis (min 10 games)
Graham is arguably a top-five all-time receiving TE, he's another year removed from a major knee injury and is the only pass catcher in Seattle taller than six feet (he's 6-7.) When the Seahawks get to the red zone, expect Graham to see the bulk of the targets.
10. The Giants will be a top-five fantasy defense
I predicted this last year and fell short, but in Year 2 under Steve Spagnuolo, with all of their key pieces back, I think this unit will do damage. Recall in 2007, Spagnuolo's first year with the team, the defense didn't jell until the playoffs, culminating with a Super Bowl win over arguably the greatest offense of all time. The following year, the Giants defense was dominant through 12 games, before Justin Tuck got hurt. Expect this season to be like 2008 (hopefully without the devastating injury) where the unit is in sync from the start. Jason Pierre-Paul, Olivier Vernon, three top corners, Landon Collins and Damon Harrison make this one of the league's best real-life defenses too.
11. One of the following teams make the playoffs: the Rams, 49ers, Browns, Bears, Bills, Jets, Jaguars or Colts.
Normally, this is a no brainer, but it's hard to see any of them doing it as the NFL with its haves and have-nots looks more like the NBA this year. Still, uncertainty and having eight teams makes this a good bet.
12. Tyreek Hill will not be a top-30 WR
Maybe he makes the adjustment to running outside routes, but his per-play pass-catching numbers last year (9.7 YPC, 7.1 YPT) look more like that of a running back or TE. Alex Smith doesn't help, either.
13. Golden Tate (ADP 21) will outproduce Keenan Allen (ADP 17)
These players are so similar - high-volume short pass catchers, not much red-zone work - it's crazy the one who gets hurt every year is ranked ahead of the one who doesn't.
14. Sammy Watkins will be a top-15 WR in non-PPR
No per-game qualifier here as everyone knows a big part of the risk with Watkins is health. But he's an elite playmaker when healthy, and Goff will prove to be just competent enough to support him.
15. John Brown will be a top-20 WR in non-PPR
Again, no per-game qualifier for obvious reasons. I'm not a doctor, but I do know he's had the sickle-cell trait his entire life and was just fine until last year. With Fitzgerald at 34 and no other pass-catchers of which to speak besides running back David Johnson, Brown has major upside.
16. Julio Jones will outproduce Antonio Brown in non-PPR
Brown caught 12 TDs last year, but he doesn't get a ton of red-zone or goal-line work, and that was without Martavis Bryant and Vance McDonald around. Jones has historically underperformed near the goal line, but Kyle Shanahan (who's been notoriously stingy to his top WR near the goal line) is gone, and Matt Ryan lacks other quality options.
17. Josh Gordon will be reinstated at some point this season
The NFL is in the dark ages when it comes to marijuana, but the Ezekiel Elliott suspension despite its own investigator's recommendation against it shows it's conscious of its past failures with respect to domestic violence. In other words, it's evolving - whether in earnest or for cynical public relations purposes - and banning athletes who have harmed nobody is a bad look. If Gordon doesn't relapse, he'll be reinstated.
18. Matt Forte (if he remains a Jet) and Bilal Powell will catch 110 passes between them (min 10 games each)
It's virtually unheard of for one team to have two 50-ish-catch backs, but with the Jets tanking, I'd expect a ton of dump-offs to the two time-share pass catchers.
19. The Patriots miss the playoffs. The Patriots lose in the AFC Championship game or earlier.
With the Jets and Bills in their division, the Patriots get a 4-0 cushion to start the year, and they're good for at least 7-5 in the remaining games, so playoffs are a virtual lock, and this is probably the case even if Tom Brady went down, and Jimmy Garoppolo had to play. But someone legitimate will emerge this year - the Titans, Chargers, Steelers, Bengals, Broncos and Dolphins - are my candidates, and the Patriots defense isn't anything special.
20. Some of these predictions will be wrong
Hopefully, it's only No. 20.
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