Start vs. Sit: Who to Play, Who to Bench Week 1

Welcome into the first installment of Start vs. Sit of the 2019 season. I'm thrilled to be writing this column again for the fourth year in a row and helping you make the best lineup decisions every week of the season. 

Week 1 is always a crapshoot. For every interesting inter-conference matchup like an Auburn vs. Oregon, there are plenty of teams opting to open their seasons with cupcakes. I get it. It's fine. But it drags down the overall quality of the slate for fans. On the other hand, it makes some of our start/sit situations much easier. Still, there are a handful of matchups that are tricky for lineup purposes this weekend, and that's why I'm here to help.

AAC

START

Patrick Taylor Jr., RB, Memphis (-5.5) vs. Mississippi

Darrell Henderson is gone, which clears the runway for Taylor to take off as the next big-time Memphis running back. Not that Taylor was any slouch last year, but it feels as though his 16 rushing touchdowns flew under the radar with Henderson absorbing so much of the spotlight. This week he leads a Memphis backfield against a Mississippi defense that returns 71 percent of its defensive production from a year ago, per SBNation. While that's a good figure, it's a lot of returning production from one of the nation's worst defenses as the Rebels allowed 30.3 fantasy points per game against rushers. 

Taylor should be in line for a heavy workload and, if the game script plays out as expected with Memphis winning this one by a score, there's little chance that he gets abandoned in the game plan. You spent a high pick on Taylor, don't bench him just because he's going against an SEC defense. I also wouldn't hesitate to use Michael Warren II or Desmond Ridder at home against UCLA. Nor should you worry about Houston. The Cougs are 23-point dogs, but it's in a game where the implied total is well over 80. 

SIT

Holton Ahlers, QB, East Carolina at North Carolina State (-17)

There are several factors working against Ahlers this week. He's opening up on the road in a new offense that, frankly, won't be as goofy as last year. The goofiness benefited Ahlers in a sense as his inefficiencies as a passer (48.3 completion percentage, 6.8 YPA) were masked by the sheer volume of plays East Carolina ran (84.0 per game). East Carolina won't be as recklessly up-tempo this year, so the idea of Ahlers getting close to 80 plays to work with Saturday seems far-fetched. 

Also, NC State brings back 74 percent of its 2018 defensive production, and that was a defense that ranked 54th in S&P+. Not great, but it'll be an experienced group going against an ECU team that may have some growing pains. I'm firmly on team Wait and See when it comes to Ahlers and this new-look Pirates offense. 

ACC

START

Jamie Newman, QB, Wake Forest (3.5) vs. Utah State

Newman beat out the talented Sam Hartman for the starting job, and Wake Forest is the type of offense that we'll want to target throughout the season. It's an up-tempo group that ran an FBS-leading 85.0 plays per game in 2018, and the competitive nature of this matchup implied by the spread suggests that Newman will be in for heavy volume. Newman averaged 27.3 fantasy points during his four-game stint as the starter a year ago, totaling 12 touchdowns and 1,185 yards in that stretch. Utah State is no slouch, but Newman still projects as a top-25 quarterback in our rankings this week.

SIT

James Blackman, QB, Florida State (-5.5) vs. Boise State

Outside of the Virginia-Pittsburgh mud battle, this has the chance to be the lowest-scoring game involving any ACC team this week with Boise State coming to Tallahassee. Now, there's reason to believe in a dead-cat bounce from the Florida State offense this fall (as in, it can't get worse, right?) and Blackman entering his third year as the starter has some things going for him. Still, he ranks outside our top-36 quarterbacks this week. Boise State ranks 21st in returning defensive production and the Noles rank 18th. Look for this game to be defined by defenses dominating for 60 minutes, limiting the offensive upside for both squads.

BIG 12

START

Jordan Whittington, RB, Texas (-20) vs. Louisiana Tech

Texas is in a tough spot at running back coming into the season; starter Keaontay Ingram is dealing with a bone bruise in his knee and both Daniel Young and Kirk Johnson will miss Saturday's game. Like it or not, Texas will have to turn to the true freshman in Whittington, and that might not be a bad thing.

Whittington has made noise all summer as one of the nation's top overall recruits who has the build to handle a college workload. It's going to be a short backfield rotation Saturday, and with Ingram not at 100 percent healthy, it won't be shocking to see Whittington lead the 'Horns in rushing. One caveat is that Whittington is more of a flex option than, say, an RB2 in a Power 5-only league. 

The green light also goes for all of your Oklahoma, Texas Tech and Oklahoma State players. Even the SEC would blush at this Big 12 slate this week. 

SIT

Alex Delton, QB, TCU (no spread) vs. Arkansas Pine-Bluff

Coach Gary Patterson named Delton the starter Tuesday, but that doesn't mean he'll play the whole game. 

It's a soft matchup for Delton when he does play, but there's no reason for TCU to go overboard with its new starter when the Horned Frogs could theoretically sleepwalk their way to a four-touchdown victory. Plus, getting Duggan the aforementioned reps may be more important to Patterson than having Delton on the field in a laugher.

BIG TEN

START

Wan'Dale Robinson, WR, Nebraska (-36.5) vs South Alabama

I, for one, am falling for the Nebraska hype hook, line and sinker and Robinson is a big part of that. The Adrian Martinez-led offense will be one of the Big Ten's best, and Robinson is already listed as a starter at wide receiver. Robinson, the jewel of the Huskers' impressive recruiting class, came out of high school as an all-purpose back, so there are several ways Nebraska can look to get the ball into his hands. 

I'm not calling a Ron'Dale Moore-esque debut here, but Robinson's talent and role make him an interesting play this week and beyond.

Michael Penix Jr. and the Indiana guys are also in a great spot this week.

SIT

Isaiah Bowser, RB, Northwestern at Stanford (-6.5)

Bowser doesn't have much competition for carries after averaging a 48 percent share of Northwestern's rushes in games he played last season. This is still a tough spot for him, however, even with a safe projected workload.

The game itself has an extremely low over/under at 47.5, as of Tuesday. And with the spread baked in, Vegas isn't expecting Northwestern to make it into the 20s. If the Wildcats fall behind and go into catch-up mode, Bowser could be further removed from the game script. In a week where there are so many soft matchups to exploit, it doesn't make much sense to force Bowser into your lineup.

C-USA

START

Austin Maloney, WR, Florida International at Tulane (-2)

Maloney may not be a household name, but he's one of the top offensive options on an FIU club that could make some noise in Conference USA this season. He averaged a team-high 12.3 YPT and scored five touchdowns on his 28 receptions in the regular season last year. Nevermind the shaky raw catch rate of 59.5 percent, look at this stat below: 

C.J. Worton's departure opens up targets for both Maloney and Maurice Alexander in a passing game led by veteran James Morgan. Look for Maloney to make the most of an increased target share in 2019, starting Week 1.

SIT

Juma Otoviano, RB, Rice at Army (-22.5)

Otoviano entered the offseason with some well-deserved sleeper buzz after averaging a team-high 5.60 YPC and rushing for three touchdowns on 65 attempts last season. The highlight, of course, came on his 224-yard effort against Old Dominion in the season finale. However, there was a bit of a depth chart surprise Tuesday with Otoviano being listed as the backup to Aston Walter. 

To make matters worse, Rice is going up against an Army team that is notorious for limiting its opponents' time of possession. Limited possessions, limited role for Otoviano. No thanks

MAC

START

Arthur Jackson, WR, Eastern Michigan (-6) at Coastal Carolina

The MAC is tricky this week with several teams either punching up or down several weight classes. The Eastern Michigan-Coastal Carolina game seemed like a fair subject to tackle as a result, and Jackson deserves some recognition as a sleeper coming into the season. 

He profiles as the No.1 option at wide receiver for the Eagles and averaged a strong 9.0 YPT in 2018 on a team that averaged just 7.6 YPA as a whole. The targets should be steady this week against Coastal Carolina, which ranked 103rd against the pass in S&P+ a year ago. 

SIT

Mitchell Guadagni, QB, Toledo at Kentucky

Guadagni recently won the job and is positioned to have a strong season all things considered. However, starting on the road with a receiving corps that lost 70 percent of its production from 2018 is an impossible task. Now, Kentucky isn't without its own issues; the Wildcats rank 127th in returning production on defense and is looking to replace the likes of Josh Allen and Lonnie Johnson. Still, Kentucky has recruited well enough to reload on that side of the ball and still stifle this Toledo attack. 

Mountain West

START

John Hightower, WR, Boise State at Florida State (-5.5)

Yes he's on the road with a true freshman as his quarterback. But when it comes to Hightower, those type of things simply might not matter. 

Hightower led the team with 10.7 YPT in 2018 and he turned six of his 31 receptions into touchdowns. He'll obviously be tested against a talented FSU secondary but the volume will be there, and Hightower's talent can play against any level of college football. A tough matchup for Hightower only knocks him down to WR3 consideration, but not down to your bench.

SIT 

Jordan Love, QB, Utah State at Wake Forest

Love still rightly gets the headlines as a legitimate NFL prospect. There are questions that need to be answered when it comes to his supporting cast and the new system, however. Former head coach Matt Wells is now in charge at Texas Tech, and you'll have to forgive me if I'm just a bit skeptical of the Gary Andersen retread here at Utah State even with his success with the program many moons ago. With the supporting cast, Love has to make do with a receiving corps that lost its top five contributors from 2018 — a group that accounted for 70 percent of the Aggies' receiving yards. 

There's also the matter of Utah State having to go across the country to play a Power 5 opponent. Wake Forest was shaky on defense in 2018 but returns the bulk of its starters. This won't be easy for Love and there might be too many factors working against him to be worth a start, even in 2QB formats.

PAC-12

START

Steven Montez, QB, Colorado (-13.5) vs. Colorado State

This couldn't set up much better for Montez and the Buffs in their first game under new head coach Mel Tucker. Montez faces a Rams team that ranked 110th in total defense in S&P+ last season, and the Rams are also one of the nation's most inexperienced teams, ranking 125 in total returning production and 96th in returning defensive production. 

Put another way, Colorado State is going to be rolling out a bunch of guys who couldn't beat out a bunch of guys that were terrible last season. Montez is talented and experienced enough to exploit this matchup, especially with the likes of Laviska Shenault and deep threat KD Nixon at his disposal. He's a top-20 quarterback overall this week, and with a matchup like this, he could produce a top-12 output when it's said and done.

It's a new year, but if you need any more convincing, he went 22-for-25 for 338 yards and four touchdowns through the air against CSU last season. If Colorado relies on Montez more as a rusher this season, the overall fantasy production could be even gaudier.

SIT

CJ Verdell, RB, Oregon vs. Auburn (-3.5)

The battle between Oregon's offensive line and Auburn's defensive line stands to be one of the weekend's best in-game matchups and one that could swing the result of this game. While I expect Oregon's offensive line to hold its own, I'm not sold on Verdell being a great fantasy option this weekend. 

Verdell averaged just 4.0 yards per carry against ranked opponents in 2018 over a 41-carry sample and this Auburn defense is likely the best he has faced in his college career. There's also something to be said for Oregon using a deep running back rotation, which lessen's Verdell's chances at seeing a heavy carry volume. 

SEC

START

Bryan Edwards, WR, South Carolina (-10) vs. North Carolina

Outside of the Ole Miss-Memphis game, this matchup has the highest implied total of any game involving an SEC team this weekend, checking in at 63.0. Edwards is the clear focal point of this passing offense as the only returning Gamecocks receiver to hold a target share of more than 20 percent in 2018. With Deebo Samuel gone, Edwards could see an even bigger piece of the pie this season.

Furthermore, he has experienced senior quarterback Jake Bentley back again for 2019, and this is a relatively soft matchup, as North Carolina ranked 95th in defensive S&P+ and 75th against the pass last season. North Carolina should be better on defense with new co-coordinator Jay Bateman, who was hired from Army this offseason. Still, it'll take time for North Carolina's defense to hit its stride, and it certainly won't be against this experienced South Carolina passing attack. Edwards is a top-20 play at receiver this weekend even with other SEC receivers facing softer matchups.

Elsewhere, I won't hesitate to use Mississippi State, Tennessee or Kentucky players.

SIT

Seth Williams, WR, Auburn (-3.5) vs. Oregon

This has little to do with Williams the player and everything to do with contest. Auburn is trotting out a true freshman quarterback in Bo Nix behind an offensive line that returns all of its starters. I expect play-caller Gus Malzahn to keep things ground-oriented to not put too much on Nix's shoulders in his debut against a good defense. 

There's also the matter of Williams' specific role in the Auburn offense. Williams occupies a downfield role in the passing game and was efficient in that capacity in 2018 (11.9 YPT), but those are inherently tougher throws for the quarterback to hit. Ryan Davis and his 64 catches on 79 targets in 2018 show the importance of the quick-hitter in this offense, and it would be a horrible miscasting of Williams' talent to have him in that type of role. Williams could get loose for a big play or two Saturday, but counting on a true freshman quarterback against this Auburn defense makes it tough to believe Williams returns even WR3 value. 

SUN BELT

START

Kirk Merritt, WR, Arkansas State (-3.0) vs. SMU

Merritt heads up a strong Arkansas receiving corps and is primed to repeat another 80-catch, 1,000-yard season for the Red Wolves. His high catch rate of 74 percent coupled with a high volume (8.6 targets/game in 2018) gives him a high floor against almost any opponent. When the opponent is as shaky as SMU is on defense, the likelihood of Merritt posting big numbers increases. 

SIT

CJ Marable, RB, Coastal Carolina vs. Eastern Michigan (-6)

Marable projects to be the Chanticleers' top back this season and was impressive on a per-touch basis in 2018, averaging 6.1 yards per carry and 12.0 yards per reception over 12 games. He will be running against an Eastern Michigan front whose numbers somewhat belie what it really was a year ago. Tough tasks like facing Army and Georgia Southern ballooned Eastern Michigan's yards rushing yardage allowed and rushing touchdowns allowed. There's also a low implied total of just 53 in this one, so a low-tempo defensive battle might not allow Marable to reach the production we've come to expect. Marable will be one of the Sun Belt's best running backs this season, it's just difficult to deploy him this week in anything beyond an extremely deep format.