This article is part of our DraftKings College Football series.
Welcome to our Showdown Slate Breakdown for Tuesday's Boca Raton bowl that pits Conference-USA Champion UAB up against MAC Champion Northern Illinois. In this article I'll supply with you with relevant info as it pertains to the matchup and the individual players within the contest. We will be rolling out Showdown Slate breakdowns throughout bowl season in addition to our traditional slate articles.
Vegas Info
UAB checks in as 2.5-point favorites over Northern Illinois in Tuesday's Cheribundi Tart Cherry Boca Raton Bowl. The total in this game is a mere 43 points, which suggests a defensive battle.
Team Info
Lineup Tools
Lineup Optimizer
Weekly Rankings by Position
Target Share
Team Trends
Odds
Defense vs. Position
Key Injuries
UAB quarterback A.J. Erdely was injured down the stretch, which led to Tyler Johnston taking over at quarterback as the Blazers went on a run that netted them a conference championship. Beyond Erdely, UAB is without reserve running back Kingston Davis, who was arrested on domestic violence charges last week.
As for Northern Illinois, there aren't any significant injuries or absences. Tight end Corey Lersch dealt with an ankle injury late in the season and he missed the final three games.
Captain Considerations
Showdown slates on DraftKings feature team captains that score 1.5x the standard fantasy point value for each statistic. The catch is that putting a player in your captain's spot means paying 1.5x the salary that they would be in the UTIL pool. The general strategy is to use the player with the highest projection in this spot, but it's important to take points per dollar into account as well.
Marcus Childers, QB, Northern Illinois ($19,500)
Childers checks in as the highest priced player on the board after averaging 18.9 points per game at the helm of the NIU offense. His numbers on the season were middling (1,996 passing yards, 5.42 YPA), but Childers ended the year strong. Over his last five games, Childers threw for 932 yards (7.0 YPA) and added 235 yards on the ground while accounting for 10 total touchdowns. His performance against Buffalo in the MAC Championship showed the kind of upside he can bring to the table (300 passing yards, four touchdowns, 58 rushing yards). However, that was his only game above 215 passing yards all season and the first time he had thrown multiple touchdowns since Week 4 against Florida State when he had to throw it 41 times. UAB's pass defense isn't stellar by any means but it's solid (50th in S&P+). Taking Childers at captain carries some risk considering his low passing volume and low established floor, but in a game with a low implied total and tough defenses on both sides, he's still the best option overall.
Spencer Brown, RB, UAB ($18,600)
UAB's offense relies heavily on Brown, who finished ninth in the nation in carries this season (248) over 13 games. He turned those carries into 1,152 yards (4.65 YPC) and 16 rushing touchdowns. The 4.65 YPC is concerning, especially when he'll be facing one of the nation's top run defenses. Brown stands to see a heavy workload Tuesday but he'll be touchdown reliant as it's unlikely he'll rack up heavy yardage.
Tyler Johnston, QB, UAB ($16,800)
Johnston truly took the reins against UTSA on Nov. 3 and led UAB to a 2-1 record with the one loss coming on the road at Texas A&M. He then split playing time with A.J. Erdely in the season finale against Middle Tennessee before taking back over for the rematch in the Conference USA Title Game. Johnston is mistake-prone (eight interceptions compared to seven touchdowns) but has shown flashes of upside since taking over.
Mid-Range Considerations
Marcus Jones, RB, Northern Illinois ($4,400)
Tre Harbison has roughly twice the carries Jones does but he's slightly more explosive (5.62 YPC compared to Harbison's 5.24) and has the same amount of touchdowns (4). The downside to Jones (5-8, 199) in this format is that he's smaller than Harbison (5-11, 227), so goal line touches will be tough to come by. Still, at $4,400, Jones is a viable consideration that will see work out of the backfield in a run-heavy offense that plays with strong tempo.
Spencer Tears, WR, Northern Illinois ($6,800)
Tears being priced below counterpart D.J. Brown comes off as a bit surprising. Over the last five games of the season, Tears has more targets (41) than Brown (31), his YPT is nearly two yards better (6.68 compared to 4.84) and he has a team-high three receiving touchdowns.
Andre Wilson, WR, UAB ($5,200)
Wilson leads the team in receptions (30), target share (19 percent), and is tied for the team lead in touchdowns. He also carries a strong 11.2 YPT over the last five weeks and has seen some work in the run game in that stretch (four carries, 68 yards, one touchdown). He's the preferred option among UAB receivers for Tuesday's game.
Punt Plays
Kailon Carter, WR, UAB ($3,400)
This might be the best value on the board. Over the last five weeks, Carter has turned his 23 targets into 14 catches for 312 yards (13.57 YPT) to go with two touchdowns. He's the clar big-play threat in a UAB passing attack that sorely lacks that presence otherwise.
Jauan Wesley, WR, Northern Illinois ($6,000)
Wesley doesn't see the volume of Tears or Brown but is the most efficient of the bunch at 8.91 YPT. Northern Illinois isn't a high-volume passing offense but at least its usage tree is rather narrow and thus predictable between Wesley, Brown, and Tears. Wesley has the least amount of targets among them but he has multiple catches in every game this season, something that can't said for Tears or Brown.
Collin Lisa, WR, UAB ($2,400)
The senior is third on the team in target share at 17 percent and saw at least three targets in each of his last four games. Lisa is not a lock to do a ton with the looks he gets, but he did average 8.12 YPT and he'll be low-owned enough to where he'll set your lineup apart if he does produce.
