College Football Picks: Picking Bowl Winners

The RotoWire College Cappers picked every bowl game below, adding some "best bets," as well. They'll add picks for the national championship when the participants are decided. Also, check out the comments section for any changes to these picks as each bowl approaches.

Cure Bowl

Tulane -3.5 vs. UL Lafayette

Chris: Lafayette. I have no real feel here, but Tulane has been wildly inconsistent SU and are only 2-5 ATS in its last seven. ULL can run the ball, defend OK and showed some fight last time out against Appalachian State.

Greg: Tulane. Neither team played well against stiff competition, but Tulane had a decent win against Memphis. Tulane won four of its final five games, including a victory over a decent Navy team to become bowl eligible.

New Mexico Bowl

Utah State -9 vs. North Texas

Chris: Utah State. UNT was my early season darling with a predicted SU win at Arkansas but faded mightily down the stretch, covering just once in the final eight games. I don't love the Aggies, but they're 9-3 ATS and this is the smallest number by which they've been favored.

Greg: Utah State. I don't like the way Utah State finished, with a dud against Colorado State and a loss to Boise State, but there's no doubt the Aggies are the better team. The month off will allow the Aggies to get refocused and take care of business in their bowl game.

Las Vegas Bowl

Fresno State -4 vs. Arizona State

Chris: Fresno State. Motivation is a powerful thing and I expect the Sun Devils won't be inspired to play given the opponent, while Fresno State begs for opportunities like this during the regular season.

Greg: Fresno State. ASU has made a habit out of playing tight games this season, but with N'Keal Harry possibly sitting this one out, that could be the difference between a tight win for Fresno State and a comfortable win for Fresno State.

Camellia Bowl

Georgia Southern -1 vs. Eastern Michigan

Chris: Georgia Southern. EMU played Army's option very well, allowing only 3.96 yards per rush. If this number were bigger, I'd prefer Eastern Michigan, but GSU is the better team and will prevail.

Greg: Georgia Southern. My Anti-MAC bias will be easy to spot throughout these picks. Georgia Southern plays in a weak conference as well, but it posted a 20-point win over Appalachian State and is one win away from a 10-win season.

New Orleans Bowl

Appalachian State -7 vs. Middle Tennessee State

Chris: MTSU. I love the Mountaineers defense, but this just seems like too big a number for a team experiencing a coaching transition that was already limited offensively.

Greg: MTSU. I like everything about Appalachian State, but its coach might not be around for this one and we have no idea how that will affect its players. MTSU lost two games to non-Power 5 teams and both were by three points or less.

Boca Raton Bowl

UAB -2.5 vs. Northern Illinois

Chris: UAB. Both sides offer great defenses, and I've regularly gone against NIU without succeeding all year. But UAB at least has an offensive identity (running the ball), so I'll take it to win.

Greg: UAB. Northern Illinois shocked the heck out of me by coming back against Buffalo in the MAC title game, but again, Buffalo is from the MAC. UAB really impressed with its win over a game MTSU in the Conference USA championship.

Frisco Bowl

Ohio -3 vs. San Diego State

Chris: San Diego State. Ohio is another MAC team I haven't figured out all year. The Bobcats can score in bunches, but San Diego State ranks fourth against the run, allowing only 94.5 yards per game. I'll take the points.

Greg: Ohio. With the exception of one bizarre loss to Miami (OH), the Bobcats absolutely trucked their opponents down the stretch. And while I'm not fond of the MAC, I am impressed with the manner in which the Bobcats dispatched their competition. Meanwhile, SDSU stumbled to the finish, losing four of five and likely just wants this season to end.

Gasparilla Bowl

Marshall -2.5 vs. South Florida

Chris: South Florida. It's tough to get Marshall's dud against Virginia Tech out of my mind, and Thundering Herd were a team I was high on in September that continually failed to meet expectations. I think the Bulls can follow a similar path to the Hokies and beat the Herd relatively easily.

Greg: South Florida. USF face-planted to end the season, losing five straight, but QB Blake Barnett missed a couple games during that stretch and the Bulls faced a high level of competition in each of those game. A healthy Barnett and a home-field advantage will be the difference.

Bahamas Bowl

Toledo -5.5 vs. Florida International

Chris: FIU. Butch Davis has done wonders with the Panthers, and I'm content to pick on the MAC during bowl season. Getting points feels like a gift.

Greg: FIU. Toledo beat up on the soft underbelly of the MAC this season, but the Rockets failed against the upper-tier of the conference. The Rockets can score, but so can FIU and this game will go down to the wire.

Idaho Potato Bowl

BYU -12 vs. Western Michigan

Chris: BYU. It's a big number for a limited Cougars offense to cover. But they held five of their last six opponents to less than 23 points, four of which scored 16 or fewer. They'll methodically take care of a WMU team that lost six of its final eight.

Greg: BYU. I'm not fond of laying this much wood with a team like BYU, but WMU was generous on defense this season, surrendering at least 40 points five times. Three of those occasions happened in the final four weeks of the season ... inside the MAC.

Birmingham Bowl

Memphis -4.5 vs. Wake Forest

Chris: Wake Forest. I may be suffering from recency bias, with Wake blowing out Duke, and Memphis falling, again, to UCF. Points should be plentiful, and I hope Greg Dortch and Jamie Newman can offset the Tigers' rushing attack while keeping this close.

Greg: Memphis. Raise your hand if you have Wake Forest figured out, because I sure don't. Wake's inconsistencies aside, the Demon Deacons have had trouble stopping the run this season, surrendering 4.85 per carry and Memphis just might have the best running back in the country.

Armed Forces Bowl

Army -3 vs. Houston

Chris: Army. No Ed Oliver means Houston can't plug the middle on the triple option. No D'Eriq King under center has Houston struggling to keep up on the scoreboard, especially when Army starts bleeding clock.

Greg: Army. Houston will be without its best player, and without DT Ed Oliver, the Cougars' chances of slowing Army's rushing attack are not good. Houston will get some, as the Cougars have plenty of playmakers on offense, but it won't be enough.

Dollar General Bowl

Buffalo -2.5 vs. Troy

Chris: Troy. I love Buffalo on both sides of the ball, but the way it blew the MAC championship leaves a bad taste. And a recurring theme for me is picking on the MAC, which I find to be down and is already one of the worst conferences.

Greg: Troy. Buffalo's collapse in the MAC championship is troubling as the Bulls were in complete control and suddenly forgot how to play. Troy will likely gain a lot of knowledge on how to slow the Bulls from that second-half performance, which will be the difference.

Hawaii Bowl

Hawaii -1 vs. Louisiana Tech

Chris: Hawaii. I believe La Tech is the better side. But I echo what Greg says below. Losing three of their final four down the stretch, including a 15-point defeat to Western Kentucky? There's no way this team views this as any more than a vacation to the islands.

Greg: Hawaii. Louisiana Tech stumbled to the finish, losing three of its final four games, including a mind-boggling loss to Western Kentucky. Hawaii, meanwhile, finished with two wins in a row, the last being an impressive road win as San Diego State.

First Responders Bowl

Boise State -3 vs. Boston College

Chris: Boise State. The time off should allow BC to be fully healthy at QB and RB, but I trust Brett Rypien more than I trust Anthony Brown, and while they haven't faced a back like A.J. Dillon, the Broncos rank 22nd against the run, allowing 3.7 YPC and 122.7 YPG.

Greg: Boise State. It's tough to get the mental image of the Broncos' last game out of my head because they were dreadful, but they were battling tough conditions and a pretty good Fresno State team. Boston College's best win this season was against Miami, and that's not saying much.

Quick Lane Bowl

Georgia Tech -4 vs. Minnesota

Chris: Minnesota. I absolutely love the angle for the Jackets sending coach Paul Johnson out in style. But Johnson has long complained about teams having bye weeks prior to facing his option during the regular season; Minnesota gets considerably more time. They'll make enough stops as a result.

Greg: Minnesota: The Gophers ended on a high note, gaining bowl eligibility by beating Purdue and Wisconsin down the stretch. And while they aren't a formidable force just yet, they did manage to plug their biggest hole, which was defense. The Yellow Jackets will undoubtedly play hard for their departing head coach, but the Gophers will have plenty of time to adjust to the unorthodox Georgia Tech offense.

Cheez-It Bowl

California vs. TCU pick em

Chris: TCU. Everything Greg says below is 100 percent accurate, but I still like the Horns D, the fact that they fought to win three of four down the stretch to gain bowl eligibility, and I'm generally down on the Pac 12.

Greg: California. How about we just take the under? No? OK then, let's go with Cal, who isn't nearly as disappointed to be in the Cheez-It Bowl as TCU.

Independence Bowl

Temple -3 vs. Duke

Chris: Duke. A week ago, Temple might have been a best bet for me, and while losing its head coach might not warrant this drastic of a change of heart, I think Daniel Jones shows the NFL potential many see in him and wins his final game as a Blue Devil. He is playing, right?

Greg: Temple. If both teams bring their "A" game, then Duke probably wins, but Duke hasn't shown its top form in quite a while. I'll take a much more consistent Temple team.

Pinstripe Bowl

Miami -4 vs. Wisconsin

Chris: Wisconsin. I'm a die-hard Miami homer, and I want to believe revenge from last year's Orange Bowl is a motivator. But Miami's offense is simply awful, and I've seen too many games where the Hurricanes were dominated by physical opponents. And it will be freezing in the Bronx.

Greg: Miami. I don't want to be on either of these sides, but Miami at least showed some heart down the stretch, routing both Virginia Tech and Pittsburg to close the season. Wisconsin, meanwhile, got whooped by an average Gopher team on its own turf.

Texas Bowl

Vanderbilt -3.5 vs. Baylor

Chris: Vanderbilt. Baylor was incredibly inconsistent offensively throughout the year. It's never easy to trust Vanderbilt, but it showed offensive balance down the stretch and will put up enough points to cover.

Greg: Baylor. Vanderbilt won three of its final four games to become bowl eligible, but those wins were all over bad teams. Baylor didn't exactly slay any giants this season either, but since the Bears are getting the points, I'll side with them.

Music City Bowl

Auburn -4 vs. Purdue

Chris: Auburn. The Tigers don't do much offensively, and while I expect coach Jeff Brohm to have some tricks up his sleeve, the Auburn defense is the best unit in this game. So long as the Tigers show up, Purdue will struggle to score.

Greg: Auburn. Purdue had a signature win over Ohio State this season, but the Boilermakers didn't exactly close the season out in style, losing three of their final five games. I'm not exactly high on Auburn either, as the Tigers were all over the map this season. This pick is mostly a fade based on the way Purdue looked down the stretch.

Camping World Bowl

West Virginia -1.5 vs. Syracuse

Chris: Syracuse – Best Bet. I was on Syracuse before WVU started losing seniors to NFL preparations. This is a team that two games ago was looking at winning out and probably landing in the playoffs. It subsequently dropped consecutive games and was then passed over by the Alamo Bowl committee for a matchup with Mike Leach and Co. West Virginia doesn't want to be here, and the Orange do. They are a hungry fan base who will travel, and the team will play with vigor and send senior QB Eric Dungey out a winner. Syracuse wins outright, even if WVU is at full strength.

Greg: Syracuse. The line obviously moved quite a bit in favor of Syracuse after the news of Will Grier sitting this one out and to Chris' point, you have to wonder if the Mountaineers are going to give a hoot about this game now. Syracuse has been starved for some big game action for years and you can bet the Orange will be amped to play in any postseason game.

Alamo Bowl

Washington State -3.5 vs. Iowa State

Chris: Iowa State. This pick is solely against the Pac-12, and not the Cougars specifically. I think they're a solid team, but I think the conference is down and not likely to win many postseason games. Iowa State finds a way to keep up offensively.

Greg: Washington State. It's unfortunate that these teams are playing each other, because I like them both, but since I have to choose, I'm siding with Washington State as the Cougars will have more of an edge in this spot. The Cougars are not happy about missing out on a better bowl game, and they are out to prove a point.

Peach Bowl

Michigan -7.5 vs. Florida

Chris: Florida. Both sides are stout defensively, and limited offensively. As such, this just looks like too big a number for Michigan to push past.

Greg: Florida – Best Bet. What do we really know about Michigan? The Wolverines have a strong defense, but they've been less than stellar away from home this season and have not a single signature win. Florida has at times looked terrible, but on the opposite side of that coin, the Gators looked pretty darn good, like when they beat LSU. I expect Michigan to pull out a win, but the 7.5 points is too much to lay with a team that hasn't looked impressive away from home this season.

Belk Bowl

South Carolina -4 vs. Virginia

Chris: South Carolina – Best Bet. The Gamecocks offense surged at the end of the season on the arm of QB Jake Bentley. He threw 363 yards three times in his final five outings with multiple touchdowns in each, and had 12 TDs in his final three games. The Gamecocks averaged 38.2 points in that stretch, and I don't think the absence of WR Deebo Samuel will have a huge negative impact. The Gamecocks aren't great defensively, and the Cavaliers do have a sound pass defense, but they lack weapons offensively outside of QB Bryce Perkins. They're only win in November came over Liberty, and they've allowed more than 200 yards rushing in four straight. That weakness will keep the Gamecocks' attack balanced, and force a few more men in the box, opening things up for Bentley down field. USC wins by double digits.

Greg: South Carolina. The Gamecocks didn't have many impressive wins this season, but they covered against Clemson, while putting up some big offensive numbers and that's pretty impressive. Virginia lost six games this season, all by double digits.

Arizona Bowl

Arkansas State -1.5 vs. Nevada

Chris: Arkansas State. Both teams can sling it, and both are in great form, with ASU winning four consecutive and Nevada four of five. I find ASU's pass defense stats to be incredibly inflated by matchups as well. This should be a high-scoring, entertaining battle that comes down to the final possession. Take your pick on who gets that last chance.

Greg: Nevada. Flip a coin as neither team did anything in the non-conference portion of its schedule that would give us any insight to which team is better. Nevada looks to be more battle tested, however, which gives it a slight edge.

Cotton Bowl - CFP Semifinal

Clemson -11.5 vs. Notre Dame

Chris: Notre Dame. Greg and I wrote this in a shared document at different times, and when he chimed in first, it was hard not to read. And I feel 100 percent the same as him on this. Everything points to a Clemson-Alabama championship, but this is the logical spot for an upset if there's to be one. I (too) don't trust Trevor Lawrence completely, and the Tigers wideouts haven't shown me they can be aces in the hole. Both sides can run the ball and play defense, but I like Notre Dame to play with an us-against-the-world mentality and open a lot of eyes across the nation. Clemson's front four might end up being too much, but I don't see the Irish being embarrassed.

Greg: Notre Dame. It isn't easy siding against Clemson at what is a relatively low number for the Tigers, but I have a feeling that the Fighting Irish will surprise the nation and make this a game. I'm not terribly fond of Clemson's passing game and that could be a factor if this game is close. Clemson hasn't been in a close game in a while, which could hurt it chances if Notre Dame can make this a game early.

Orange Bowl - CFP Semifinal

Alabama -14 vs. Oklahoma

Chris: Alabama. As long as Tua Tagovailoa is healthy, the Tide may not punt. And I think the defense will have a little extra pep to stop Kyler Murray after winning the Heisman over Tagovailoa. Alabama gets more than enough stops to cover.

Greg: Alabama – Best Bet. Mobile QBs have historically given Alabama's defense trouble, and while there's little doubt in my mind that the Sooners will score plenty of points, I don't see how the Oklahoma defense will stop Alabama. The Sooners have had all season to deal with their issues, especially in the secondary and it looks like they have actually gotten worse throughout the season. If this were a previous version of Alabama's offense, one that relied heavily on the run, I would give the Sooners a chance at stopping them from time to time, but this is a high-flying offense and uses the pass to destroy its opponents.

Military Bowl

Cincinnati -5 vs. Virginia Tech

Chris: Cincinnati – Best Bet. Virginia Tech played arguably its two best games, at least offensively, in its final two to qualify here. The fan base will show up for a short trip to Annapolis, but the Bearcats' physical nature and strong, between the tackles rushing attack goes straight into the heart of the Hokies' defensive weakness. The Hokies rank 105th against the run, even surrendering 232 yards to Marshall in a game the Herd were forced to throw while playing from behind throughout. Cincinnati ranks 16th in rushing offense and has topped 200 yards in four consecutive games. The Bearcats will make it five, and their 26th-ranked pass defense keeps Ryan Willis in check, earning a relatively easy victory.

Greg: Cincinnati. The Hokies spent a lot of energy to simply become bowl eligible, and while they posted a couple nice wins down the stretch, I think they'll find that simply being bowl eligible isn't that much of a thrill. I don't see the Hokies putting up the kind of effort in this game that they had shown in the previous two games, and Cincinnati is more than capable of taking advantage of that.

Sun Bowl

Stanford -6.5 vs. Pittsburgh

Chris: Stanford. I don't trust the Cardinal offense much, but I trust it more than Pittsburgh's. The Panthers threw for eight yards against Clemson. Eight. They topped 200 yards only once all year and are as one dimensional as possible. Stanford allows only 3.9 YPC, and will slow down Darrin Hall and Qadree Ollison enough to win convincingly.

Greg: Pittsburgh. Like most things in life, it's good to buy low and Pittsburgh's value is about as low as it has been all season. That said, the Panthers' value is only low because they ran into a highly motivated Miami on the road and a Clemson team that's been a machine for the better part of the last two months.

Redbox Bowl

Oregon -3 vs. Michigan State

Chris: Michigan State. It's difficult to say I'm anti-Pac-12 after just picking Stanford, but here we are. I think Sparty's physicality beats up Oregon's finesse.

Greg: Oregon. A pair of disappointed teams match up in this game, but Oregon is more well-rounded. Michigan State has a legitimate defense, but nothing resembling an offense at all. Justin Herbert will have to show up for this one, but I think he will.

Liberty Bowl

Missouri -8 vs. Oklahoma State

Chris: Missouri. The Tigers let one slip away against South Carolina in the rain, but otherwise their only losses were to Alabama, Georgia and Kentucky. Oklahoma State isn't in that class, and the Tigers won't struggle to score enough to cover.

Greg: Oklahoma State. I think this line is assuming the good Missouri shows up while the bad-to-mediocre Oklahoma State presents itself. All of OSU's final five games were decided by a touchdown or less.

Holiday Bowl

Utah -7 vs. Northwestern

Chris: Northwestern. Utah coach Kyle Wittingham is 11-1 in bowl games, the Utes are one of the few Pac-12 teams I expect to win and they'll likely be aided by the return to health of QB Tyler Huntley. But both teams are defense first and second, and this is a huge number for a limited offense to cover. Both teams score in the teens, Utah wins, but Northwestern covers.

Greg: Northwestern. Utah certainly has higher upside than Northwestern, but the Wildcats are scrappy and this is a sizable number. Neither team can be happy with the way they played in their conference championship games, so motivation should not be an issue. Utah wins, but fails to cover.

Gator Bowl

Texas A&M -5 vs. North Carolina State

Chris: Texas A&M. Both side's boast stud rushers, with Trayveon Williams and Reggie Gallaspy rushing for 15 and 18 scores, respectively. But Jimbo Fisher should be familiar with the Pack's attack, and NCST QB Ryan Finley will sorely miss WR Kelvin Harmon, who's sitting out.

Greg: Texas A&M – Best Bet. N.C. State QB Ryan Finley has received plenty of love this season from draft experts, but I'm not buying it. The Wolfpack faced one good defense all season, Clemson, and scored just seven points in that game. Texas A&M will be the second quality defense they'll face this season and the results will be something similar. I'm not huge fan of the Aggies' offense, but it's not like N.C. State brings a stout defense.

Outback Bowl

Mississippi State -6.5 vs. Iowa

Chris: Mississippi State. In Mississippi State's four losses, it scored a total of 16 points, never scoring more than seven. All eight of its wins came by at least 15 points, never allowing more than 13 points. We should know pretty early which way this is heading based on those trends, and I'll side with the SEC in this one.

Greg: Iowa. Iowa lost four games this season, three of which came by six points or less. This isn't your father's Iowa team either; this one can beat you with the run or the pass. Mississippi State is carried by its strong defense, but Iowa has the balanced attack that can put up points in this spot.

Fiesta Bowl

LSU -7.5 vs. Central Florida

Chris: UCF. Why not? LSU is nothing special, a la Auburn a season ago. I don't really believe the Knights have it in them, but I've seen enough to know they aren't likely to be blown out. Greg McCrae has quietly scored in six straight, three times rushing for more than 180 yards. Until they don't, I'm inclined to believe UCF will find a way.

Greg: LSU. If this were last season, with a healthy QB, I'd take the points all day, but UCF is not going to sneak up on anyone this time. Yes, the Knights have the athletes to make plays, but this isn't Memphis and the rest of the AAC, which generally doesn't play defense.

Citrus Bowl

Penn State -6.5 vs. Kentucky

Chris: Penn State. I definitely question the Nittany Lions' motivation. And while Kentucky is great defensively, I don't think QB Terry Wilson can make enough plays with his arm to keep this close.

Greg: Kentucky. I've faded Kentucky most of the season as its offense has been entirely one-dimensional, but in this spot, motivation is going to be a key factor. Penn State, which entered the season with high expectations, probably isn't excited to be here, while Kentucky is ecstatic.

Rose Bowl

Ohio State -6.5 vs. Washington

Chris: Ohio State. Urban Meyer's retirement should be enough fuel to motivate the Buckeyes after being left out of the playoff. I don't fully trust their defense to contain Myles Gaskin, but we've seen Washington in these big spots before get pushed around. Ohio State has too much firepower on offense.

Greg: Ohio State. The questions here is which Buckeyes team is going to show up. If it's the one that nearly lost to Maryland, then there isn't much hope for a cover, as Washington has the athletes on offense to expose the Buckeyes defense. If it's the team that won their final two games in blowout fashion, then a touchdown isn't too much to ask.

Sugar Bowl

Georgia -11 vs. Texas

Chris: Georgia. It's a big number that I don't feel great about. But if the Dawgs are as good as most think, they'll be able to score plenty against a Big 12 defense while using their speed on defense to keep the Longhorns in check.

Greg: Texas. This pick is all about motivation, and I just don't think Georgia will have much in this game. Sure, the Bulldogs could be out to prove a point, but a more likely scenario is they were hoping to be in the playoff, like they were last year, and they fell short, essentially ending their season.

Chris: Last week: 3-2; Season: 40-29-1

Greg: Last week: 1-3; Season: 37-32