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Chris' Picks
Hey, a winning week! A blind squirrel finds a nut every now and then in the means of survival I suppose. Hindsight, Florida wouldn't have been a play if I'd had known about the QB carousel, and I shouldn't have trusted Vanderbilt a lick; they're Vanderbilt. But I hit a rare total almost single-handedly; North Texas doesn't play defense and should be a consideration for overs and opponent totals every week. We move to Week 4 in hopes of further better results. The picks have improved by one per week, a trend my fingers are crossed holds. Let's go!
Syracuse (-8.5) vs. Stanford (Friday)
It's a small sample, but when Stanford faced TCU, they allowed 353 yards passing and 8.4 ypa. Rookie head coach Fran Brown and his staff have been a revelation for the Orange, and QB Kyle McCord has thrown eight touchdowns through two weeks while completing 69.4 percent of his throws. I'm not as worried as some other narratives may read that Stanford is traveling across the country; that time and place will come later, and they're coming off a bye. It just seems like a bad road match against a team that's faced better competition and performed at a higher level.
North Carolina State (+20.5) at Clemson
The Wolfpack's results have been middling at best, but their defensive statistics are heavily skewed by the blowout at the hands of Tennessee. Clemson is in the same boat, looking elite against Appalachian State after getting crushed by Georgia. It's familiar foes in an otherwise who knows match up. And with the spread opening at (-14.5) and moving a full six points in three days, I'll take that cushion while also waiting and seeing if it moves higher. If the Wolfpack can scratch 14-17 points, I don't know that Clemson's offense is dynamic enough to cover this.
Virginia (-3.5) at Coastal Carolina
This is one of many spots on the slate where I encourage you to look at lines as they drop Sunday afternoon and pounce, and at this mid-week point, not be afraid to use alt lines to feel safer. This opened at (-1) for the Cavaliers and has continued an upward trend, so I'd be fine with taking them at (-2.5) just for some insurance. It's simply a game the Cavaliers have to win to prove they're moving in the right direction under HC Tony Elliott. I'm a big fan of QB Anthony Colandrea, but he's the definition of a gunslinger, completely willing to take unnecessary risks. But Coastal has faced Jacksonville State, William & Mary and Temple. Even if UVA is one of the least talented Power 4 rosters, this is still a big upgrade. It'll be close early with Coastal getting the Cavaliers on campus, but the tide will turn in the second half.
East Carolina (+6.5) at Liberty
I'd hunt around for lines here, and would absolutely take an alt line to get this over a touchdown for slightly less odds. East Carolina can't score, so it's a touch concerning, but they possess a plus-four-point differential in two games against FBS teams, allowing just 33 points. Their pass defense is terrible despite skewed stats from Week 1, allowing 424 yards last week to Appalachian State, but only 21 points. You can't run on them at all, allowing 1.8 ypc, so they'll hopefully bend but not break against Kaidon Salter. Liberty's schedule is abysmal, and while Salter can hit some shot plays that can win this, I look for the Pirates to run well, churn the clock, and keep this competitive.
UConn (-2.5) vs. Florida Atlantic
Betting either side almost feels like a degenerate, but UConn is returning home after a tough battle at Duke, while FAU is feeling great after pounding neighbor FIU. It's a spot for those scripts to flip. The Huskies have been the far better offensive team, and while you can argue FAU's schedule has led to their scoring deficiencies, facing Michigan State and clock-churning Army, they aren't a real scoring threat, averaging 18.3 ppg while UConn posts 30.3. Simply, the Huskies aren't the doormat we've been able to target against over the last half decade, and won't go winless. As such, they win here, and I don't hate simply taking the moneyline at (-138). Early betting would have been preferred, as the Huskies started Sunday evening as a (+2.5) home underdog.
Last week: 3-2; season 6-9
Jeff's Picks
For two years with my own article and two years with the guys on College Capper, I've never gone 0-5. That streak came to a crashing end last week. There's a meme circulating on social media where a man throws his college football betting money into the fire to make kindling, and it's a great representation of how volatile the season has been through four weeks. I lost in some obvious spots, like laying Georgia, underestimating Washington State and South Carolina. I'm now in a 4-11 hole and need to do some quick work to dig myself out.
Tennessee -7 @ Oklahoma
Brent Venables' defensive scheme gives the Sooners the best chance to win this game, but Tennessee is excelling in every facet of the game right now, and it isn't just about their Heisman-worthy quarterback. They are running the ball exceptionally well and are solid defensively, and I think they'll be able to cover and show the cracks in Oklahoma. The team is banged up and thin at a few positions, and they've been unable to put away weaker teams. I liked this line better when it was 6.5 earlier in the week, but I'll still take them as over a touchdown road favorite.
Bowling Green +23 @ Texas A&M
The Falcons almost pulled off a win against Penn State, but their lack of rushing defense eventually did them in. While that's good news for the Aggies, the quarterback position is up in the air. Connor Weigman is listed as questionable, and that could be enough to send Texas A&M's offense off the rails if he misses. Despite Bowling Green's defensive shortcomings, they have a ton of offensive weapons and shredded a fairly staunch Penn State defense. I think they'll do enough to stay within this number.
UNDER 44.5 Cal @ Florida State
Cal has hit the Under in six straight games, and the Seminoles have done it in five of their last six games. The game is a virtual toss-up, and while I think it might be the moment for Florida State to finally notch a W, I can't say it confidently. DJ Uiagalelei has played abysmal football and almost looks like he's sleepwalking out there - uninspired, unemotional, and just plain terrible. There's plenty of tape out there to illustrate the many ways to beat Florida State, but the Seminoles' defense has had some good moments. FSU's anemic offense will keep this number low, and their defense will do enough to keep the score down.
Cincinnati -3.5 vs. Houston
The over isn't a bad bet here, but I'll lay the home favorite. With Brendan Sorsby under center, the Bearcats look much improved. Conversely, Houston has been very inconsistent, and last week's win over Rice isn't enough to convince me differently. Neither team is spectacular defensively, but the Bearcats' offense is much more effective right now, and I think Donovan Smith will continue to struggle.
UNDER 51.5 Arkansas State @ Iowa State
Rain is likely throughout this game, and I think it will hamper the passing offense for both teams. Rocco Becht is playing well and spurred the upset win over Iowa, but a weakness against the run was obvious in that game. Arkansas State lives and dies by the run, and they'll exploit the Cyclones at every opportunity. The Red Wolves also have four interceptions so far this season, and they have a decent secondary that should give Becht some trouble. Both offenses are methodical enough to keep this score low. I also like Arkansas State +23, but the under seems like a safer bet.
Last Week: 0-5-0
Season: 4-11-0
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Greg's Picks
The winning continued this past week with another 3-2 week. Sure, I'd like a bigger week, but I won't complain about a winning week, especially when it starts with a loss like it did this past week. Kansas was the culprit again, and yes, I am ready to jump ship on the Jayhawks and Jalon Daniels, who has regressed over the past couple of years. I got back on track with a couple of easy wins on Alabama and Memphis. As I mentioned last week, there was a possibility that FSU is just not good and that seems to be the case. I dropped my second game on Missouri, which just didn't find any traction all day. The final game of the week was Troy, which was within a score for most of the game, but faded down the stretch. However, the Trojans stayed within the line.
We'll try to keep this run going into week four.
Illinois (+8.5) at Nebraska
I'll start by stating that Nebraska looks better this season. I can't say that the Cornhuskers are better, just that they look better than they have over the past decade. The reason, of course, is that they haven't played anyone yet. Illinois' schedule has been light as well, but they did beat a ranked Kansas team two weeks. Even though Kansas has proved to be fraudulent, the Jayhawks are still better than anything Nebraska has played to this point. My hunch is that Nebraska is the better team, but 8.5 points is quite a bit when there doesn't seem to be much separating these two.
West Virginia (-2.5) vs. Kansas
It probably seems like I'm chasing my tail here as I've taken Kansas the past two weeks only to lose both games, but as I alluded to earlier, I think this team is broken, or perhaps it's just Jalon Daniels that's broken right now. Daniels was thought to be one of the better QBs in the country heading into the season, but through three games he's thrown three TDs and six INTs. West Virginia isn't lighting it up this year either, but Morgantown is a tough place to play and if Daniels makes mistakes again this week, the Mountaineers are going to win this game.
Mississippi State (+6.5) vs. Florida
When I first saw this line, I wondered how it could be justified, and then I remembered that MSU was blown out at home by a MAC team this past week. It's pretty embarrassing, for sure, but that should serve as some fuel heading into this week. Florida, meanwhile, was getting embarrassed as well, albeit against a much better team, but I have to wonder if this Gator team is capable of winning on the road in the SEC. Through three games, their only win came against Samford. In their other two games, again, against good teams, they've been noncompetitive. MSU finds a way to ugly this one up enough to stay within the number and perhaps get a win.
USC (-6) at Michigan
Like the Kansas play, I'm setting myself up for some heartbreak here as just a couple of weeks ago, I took Michigan in a similar spot against Texas, and that did not work out. Now I'm fading Michigan and hoping the Wolverines play a lot like they did two weeks ago. The main factors here are the ability of USC to stop the run (ranked 34th) and the Trojans' prowess in the passing game (ranked 8th). We all witnessed what happens to Michigan when a team can slow the ground game and move the ball through the air on offense. USC is not at the level of Texas, but the Trojans have enough on both sides of the ball to go into Ann Arbor and defeat a vulnerable Michigan squad.
Utah (-2.5) at Oklahoma State
Both teams enter this game at 3-0, and while there is still a lot unknown as neither team has faced stiff competition yet, one thing is certain: OSU's defense is really bad. The Cowboys rank 93rd in the nation against the run and 129th against the pass, and that's against middling competition. Utah, meanwhile, is 69th against the pass and 40th against the run. The second number is the important one because the Cowboys need balance to beat the better competition, but they've been unable to get Ollie Gordon going this season, and I doubt they'll figure it out this week. Utah is also slated to get Cameron Rising back, which means the offense will be at full strength.
Last Week: 3-2-0; Season 7-8-0
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