College Football Picks: CFB Week 12 Odds, Picks, Predictions and Best Bets

Written by

Chris Bennett

Jeff Edgerton

Greg Vara

Published on November 14, 2024

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Chris' Picks

Another week of mediocrity, though I guess I'm always thankful to be on the right side of that. Iowa State pulled the wool over my eyes, and Jacksonville State's pass defense was atrocious, but Liberty, Duke and Notre Dame came through for us. I had a lean on Georgia/Ole Miss, too, which played out correctly, but once assigned that for my spotlight game, I couldn't double dip. It's a shame those columns don't count here, as I'm a cool 9-1 or 9-2 there, which would make things look considerably better.

We march on, and I'll openly say I think this is a gross slate of games. Matchups aren't appealing to me, nor are many of these spreads. That probably means I'll pull a rabbit out of a hat and have a banger, but I'd tread very lightly as nothing is jumping out to me.

Over 52.5 Tulane Tulane at Navy Navy

Two potent offenses against two statistically stout defenses, and I'll back the offenses to shine. We know Navy could have a 10-minute drive and blow this up quite a bit, but Tulane is tied for seventh in the nation with explosive offensive plays. We also know they'll keep their foot down regardless of the score, so even if they stymie Navy's option, they won't play conservatively. I look for one team to reach 30 points and the other to get at least 21, so we're knocking on the door. The number has fallen from a 54.5 high point, and if that trend continues, we're looking even better.

South Florida (-3) at Charlotte

I'm stubborn, and as such, I refuse to believe the Bulls are as bad as their record. But thanks to that record, this spread is nice and low where I'd have assumed 7-10 points in a preseason setting. USF is unsettled at quarterback, but that shouldn't matter here. Charlotte has lost three straight by a combined 118-48 and has allowed 200+ yards rushing in two straight and four of six. Just hand it off and get to work.

California (-9) vs. Syracuse

I don't trust the Cal offense with this number, but I'm going to back my greater lack of trust in Syracuse's offensive game plan here. They refuse to change things up and simply chuck it as often as possible with Kyle McCord, who has 35 attempts in every game to date, seven times throwing 40+ and twice 50+. Cal's pass defense is its strength, leading the nation with 17 interceptions, allowing 10 touchdowns and 6.5 ypa. They've three times allowed over 221 yards passing, two resulting in one-point losses and one a 10-point win. As such, they'll be in this and force a late mistake or two to earn a cover. Travel can be a minor factor for Syracuse as well, having played last weekend.

Louisville (-20.5) at Stanford

As with last week with Notre Dame, I don't love these huge favorites this late in the season. But Louisville can score, and Stanford can't stop many. The Cardinal are allowing 34.6 ppg, have lost six straight, and allowed 40+ in four of those. Both teams are off a bye, so I'm not concerned with Louisville's travel west, and it's an early kick in Palo Alto. They have had a propensity to play down to their opponent, but QB Tyler Shough should have a field day against Stanford's pass defense, and he doesn't make mistakes with only five INTs.

Wake Forest (+11) at North Carolina

Everything was trending so positively for UNC, winning two games in a row after being a constant target of mine in this column previously, but they'll now come out of a second bye in four weeks and host an in-state rival. I'm banking on that breaking up momentum some, and more importantly, offensive continuity. Wake Forest is horrendous defensively, particularly against the pass. And while Jacolby Criswell has made strides as a quarterback, perhaps UNC goes away from their bread and butter in RB Omarion Hampton and gets too pass-happy. Wake beat North Carolina State, lost to Virginia by 1 and Cal by 10, all results that work here. Interceptions have been an issue for Hank Bachmeier, but UNC has only six on the year. This could absolutely blow up in my face, and the line is trending upward, so keep an eye out and see if that continues, as we'll take as many as we can.

Last week: 3-2; Season 26-27-2

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Greg's Picks

The winning streak came to an end this past week, but as has often been the case this season, the damage was limited.

They got off to a strong start, with the Buckeyes taking care of business against Purdue. While that game was in progress, the Gophers were doing what they normally do once the fans start to believe – lose a game they should win. I had a feeling as I was doing the write-up for that game that the Gophers would let me down, but the numbers showed it was a good play, and the Gophers were passing the eye test up to that point. Anyhow, it's back to the Meineke Car Care Bowl for the Gophers. The next game was a loser as I had the over in the Michigan-Indiana game, and while it started well, the game turned into a slog in the second half. Next up was an easy winner on Texas as the Longhorns destroyed Florida. The final game of the week was also a blowout as ISU got trucked by Kansas. I'm done trying to figure out Kansas this season.

Northwestern (+28.5) vs. Ohio State

Last week was the "get right" game for the Buckeye offense, and everything fell into place. This week is the "sleepy" game, however, as this one will be tough to get up for. Northwestern is not a good football team this season, and as such, the Buckeyes are sure to look past their opponent this week. Especially when you factor in that the Hoosiers are coming to Columbus next week. That's a sentence I never thought I would write, but yes, Indiana is going to get the full attention of the Buckeyes, maybe even a week early. There are no numbers I could point to that will make this pick look any better; this pick is entirely based on human nature and the inability of athletes to bring their best game week after week.

Illinois (-3) vs. Michigan State

Speaking of a get-right game, after a rough little stretch, Illinois really needs to get back on track this week. The Illini has lost three of their past five, but really only one of those games was winnable. The other two were vs. teams that were just better than Illinois, the loss of course was against Minnesota. Illinois was never going to challenge the teams at the top of the Big Ten this season, but the Illini are firmly entrenched at the top of the second tier of the conference. Michigan State, meanwhile, is fighting to be included in that second tier. The Spartans has lost five of their past six games and look to be spiraling down the drain. Illinois gets back on track here this week.

Georgia (-10) vs. Tennessee

With the 12-team playoff in play this season, we are getting familiar with the phrase "elimination game". Oddly enough, Georgia is the one facing elimination in this spot, although the road for Tennessee to make the playoff with a loss here would be difficult as well. The Bulldogs can't afford a third loss, and you can bet that you'll see their best effort here. Tennessee has just one loss this season, but the record is a little misleading as the Vols have just one quality win against Alabama. Tennessee QB Nico Iamaleava might be out for this one, and if that's the case, then there's nothing to worry about here, but either way, I think the Bulldogs will play a complete game this Saturday and win with ease.

Oregon (-14) at Wisconsin

My one worry about this game is that the Ducks have yet to have a dud, and the season is almost over. Only truly great teams can get through an entire season without a dud, and while Oregon is a really good team, I don't think the Ducks are historically good. With that said, the Badgers have failed miserably this season when facing good teams. Alabama, USC, Penn State and Iowa all beat the Badgers by at least two TDs. I'm sure the Badgers will be up for this one, it's a night game against an undefeated opponent, but I don't think they have the horses to keep up here…unless we get that dud, but I don't think it's going to happen.

Over (56.5) Kansas at BYU

While I'm steering clear of the side in this game, for obvious reasons, I do like the total. There are several reasons to like the over here. On the Kansas side, you've got a team that gets into track meets on a regular basis. In their past five games, two have ended with 56 points, two in the mid-60s, and one over 80 points. BYU is no stranger to high-scoring games either, with four of its past five going over 60 points. The only one in that stretch that didn't go over was this past week against Utah, which is known for its stingy defense. Facing Kansas the week after Utah will feel like there are only 10 players on defense. BYU will likely win, but both teams will get plenty of points.

Last Week: 2-3-0; Season 25-30-0

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Jeff's Picks

So close, and yet so far. Whoever paid off the refs in the Utah-BYU game got their money's worth. Bad officiating handed BYU the win, but they failed to cover, ending my run for a winning record last week. Granted, 2-3 isn't bad, and I'm seeing several betting experts in the media landscape doing far worse this season, but I'm not satisfied with 50 percent. I have three more shots to end the regular season strong, and although this was a tough slate to parse through, I think I can run the table with these five picks.

Louisville -20.5 @ Stanford

The Cardinals might be the best three-loss team in the country. Although they are battling the cross-country demon, they should be fine handling Stanford on The Farm, where home crowds have been, well - lacking. It's been a horrendous start to Stanford's ACC tenure, and they'll end the day still looking for their first win. The only question is the winning margin for Tyler Shough and company. When you look at Stanford's blowout losses, lesser teams have beaten them by more than three touchdowns, so I'm comfortable with taking Louisville and laying the points.

Arizona State +9.5 @ Kansas State

Cam Skattebo is scheduled to return for the Sun Devils, and he'll end up being the difference-maker against a Kansas State squad that got bit by Houston two weeks ago. Although the Wildcats have one of the best rush defenses in the Big 12, Skattebo is a special player who will hurt you both ways. Sam Leavitt will also find him out of the backfield often, adding to an already stellar passing connection with Jordyn Tyson. If the best possible version of Avery Johnson shows up, the Wildcats' win probability is much higher, but 8.5 points is a lot to hand to the Sun Devils, one of the most underrated teams in the FBS.

Washington State -10.5 @ New Mexico

The Cougars need to keep winning, and they need to post monster numbers when they do it. Their playoff chances may be remote, but they must blow out three inferior foes down the stretch to make the best possible statement for inclusion. John Mateer is 29th in the country with 2,332 passing yards and eighth among FBS quarterbacks with 22 touchdowns. He also has 11 rushing touchdowns on the year and is the team's leading rusher. This is not the Diego Pavia-led New Mexico team that engineered some upsets last season. Their total offense numbers look good on paper, but aside from last week's quality win against San Diego State, they have struggled against programs at that level. They rank 107th nationally in passing defense, allowing an average of 254 passing yards to the opposition, which is bad news for the Lobos.

Baylor -2.5 @ West Virginia

It's a harsh environment in Morgantown, but the Bears will be ready to make a statement. Baylor is a better team than their record indicates, and the Mountaineers have had trouble closing the deal against teams down the stretch. They narrowly bested a much-improved Cincinnati team last week, but opposing quarterbacks have hung huge numbers against them. Sawyer Robertson is one of the Big 12's best quarterbacks, and he should fare well against a West Virginia defense that ranks 11th against the pass. He has a trio of excellent receivers at his disposal, coupled with a solid running contribution from Bryson Washington. Garrett Greene may be back under center for West Virginia, but he may be rusty out of the gate after missing two games.

Tulane -7 @ Navy

Although Blake Horvath continues to start for the Midshipmen, he's lost a step and looked banged up against USF. Navy's win looked convincing, but the Bulls handed the game to Navy with penalties and turnovers. The glaring losses to Notre Dame and Rice sound off alarm bells, and the Green Wave is a team headed in the opposite direction. They started slow, but they've emerged as the team to beat in the AAC. The defense has gotten better week by week, and the offensive combo of QB Darian Mensah and RB Makhi Hughes can beat you in a variety of ways. Rice beat Navy with a diverse offensive attack, and Tulane has the right balance to keep Navy's defense guessing. Navy could break some plays in the hybrid triple-option, but there's plenty of tape for Tulane to study, and they'll be ready for it.

Last Week: 2-3-0

Season: 28-27-0

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