College Football DFS: Friday Night Bowl Preview

Tonight's bowl-game slate features two intriguing games that should be fun to watch.  On one end, a coach who was formerly on the hot seat attempts to stamp out doubters and validate his tenure with a victory. On the other end, it's a clash of offensive schemes as a pass-heavy team squares off against a Mountain West squad that lives and dies by the run.  Let's get right to the action, beginning with the money lines for the two games.

SLATE OVERVIEW

Iowa (-1) vs. USC O/U: 52.5

Air Force (-2.5) vs. Washington State O/U/ 70

At first glance the odds-makers seem pretty confident in the offensive firepower will be high for both games, but the Falcons/Cougars matchup sports an eye-popping 70-point O/U,  I don't favor one game over the other, as we'll be able to fill positions that correspond with the vastly different offensive schemes of these four teams.

QUARTERBACK

Anthony Gordon, WSU (DK, $10,800, FD $8,300) vs. Air Force

Kedon Slovis, USC (DK $7,300), FD $9,100) vs. Iowa

I think the quarterback picks are pretty much no -brainers tonight, but that does make both Donald Hammond and Nate Stanley interesting contrarian options.  Despite USC's sometimes-forgiving defense, I think you put yourself behind the pace with Stanley, and Hammond is almost exclusively a backfield runner in a run-option based offense.  I wouldn't necessarily fault a Hammond play in the S -Flex, but Gordon and Slovis are simply better DFS options in terms of volume and in Slovis' case, balance. Both quarterbacks have seen their share of struggles this season, but they've appropriately come against the toughest teams on their schedule. Slovis is in the tougher spot - Iowa's pass defense is perhaps Slovis' toughest test of the season, and that metric itself could make many fade the talented freshman.  From my perspective, I've seen this kid play live, and he's a spectacular passer. He tends to wait a bit too long for plays to develop and takes one too many sacks, but he's freakishly accurate and the numbers from his receivers are evidence of that fact. On the other end, Gordon would certainly be the 'safe' pick, as the Cougars are known for a prolific passing attack that's among the best in the country.

RUNNING BACKS

Max Borghi, WSU (DK $9,200, FD $7,800) vs. Air Force

Simply, put, Borghi is the safe play at running back tonight. While Air Force runs the ball with abandon, you never know who's going to pop there and you're left to just closing your eyes and throwing a dart at one of their many options.  With Borghi, you're guaranteed a hefty snap count and a lot of touches as a runner and passer and aside from a certain receiver that I'll mention later, he's the chalkiest guy on the slate.

Tyler Goodson, Iowa (DK $$,700, FD $6,900)

Just like any other DFS lineup, we've got to find a few value candidates, and Goodson comes in a good price on both slates. Although he got injured in their last game, all systems are go for the freshman, who will serve as the Hawkeyes' primary rusher  Mekhi Sargent will steal some snaps from Goodson, but not enough to make a significant impact. The team is very confident in Goodson and leaned on him in the second half of the season. He'll make the cut in most of my lineups as a cost-cutting value option.

Air Force Rushers (various)

I feel compelled to bunch this corps together, because we don't know what's happening with Timothy Jackson (quad), who is their second-leading rusher.  I think that if Jackson plays, you havr to consider him as the best option in relation to his price, but if he is out or limited Taven Birdow (DK $4,700, FD $6,800) becomes the best value for my money.  I wouldn't fault Kadin Remsberg (DK $6,400, FD $7,7000), but as I said, we have to find value somewhere and I think our second running back might be our best bet.

WIDE RECEIVER

Michael Pittman Jr.  USC (DK $7,700, FD $9,000)

You have to dodge some variance here because Slovis has a lot of receiving options, but Pittman is the receiver I referred to earlier.  While Amon-Ra St. Brown is their best possession receiver, Pittman is the guy Slovis goes to for the big play, He's going to register his share of standard targets as well, but the Slovis - Pittman connection will likely be the source of at least one big-yardage play.

Brandon Arconado, WSU (DK $7,400, FD $8,500)

I'm willing to take a chance on Arconado despite his last two games, where he failed to make the kind of impact that made him Gordon's favorite target in the middle of their 2019 campaign.  His game log is littered with 100-yard receiving games, and could easily approach that total tonight.

Dezmon Patmon, WSU (DK $5,200, FD $7,800)

Although Easop Winston Jr. is the more expensive option for the Cougars, I favor saving some cash in hopes that the difference in price exceeds the difference in production.  Like Slovis, Gordon has a lot of options and in recent weeks, Patmon's number has been called often enough for me to be confident in securing him as a second value play.

FLEX OPTIONS

I already mentioned Amon-Ra St. Brown as a great USC option, but Tyler Vaughns (DK $5,700, FD $8,200 has also come through in some big games and is definitely well-priced on DraftKings.  If you want to get sneaky at receiver, you could take a big gamble on Donald Hammond connecting with Geraud Sanders (DK $5,000) FD $6,800) for a big play or two, and Ihmir Smith-Marsette ( DK $5,500, FD $7,700) could be a valuable asset as Iowa's top wideout.