College Capper: Best Bets Week 13

Chris' Picks

A rough go for me last week as I slipped below .500. Had I known at submission Temple was on their fifth QB, that clearly wouldn't have been a play. Cincy's D finally had a bad day, costing me, and Clemson had their opportunity taken away. I also apologize to readers...looked like we had some good chatter post article publishing last week, and I was tied up with three kids in soccer tournaments. That season is over, so hopefully I can find some steady winners and opine where I'm fading as well. Those spots include Notre Dame (-4.5) at North Carolina, and Iowa (-14) vs. Nebraska. UNC can flat out score, and while they can't stop anyone, I don't know if the Irish have the firepower to match points. Iowa was an obvious play last week, and look even more so this week. I'm rolling with plenty all road teams this week. Fingers crossed!

Georgia (-21.5) at South Carolina

I hate how much this line has been bet up since opening at (-18.5), but I'm willing to stay the course. So long as what we saw from JT Daniels last week carries over, there's no way this is close. South Carolina has allowed 11.0 yards per pass attempt over their last four games, and just saw top corner Jaycee Horn opt out. Daniels' presence should push that issue, and also open up space for the Dawgs ground game. Conversely, the Gamecocks have a quarterback conundrum with Collin Hill playing terribly, Ryan Hilinski being passed over, and freshman Luke Doty a rusher first and second. They are also without WR Shi Smith, further limiting their scoring chances. Even if UGA's defense is down a few players, USC isn't scoring enough to compete.

Virginia (-9) at Florida State

This presents as my trap selection, but something just isn't right in Tallahassee. I'm firmly on the conspiracy side of the 'Noles skipping out on last week's game against Clemson, and former player Tamorrian Terry alluded to similarly. UVA is a schemed up smoke and mirrors offense, but QB Brennan Armstrong is doing his best Bryce Perkins imitation, running as well if not better than he's throwing. Ultimately, the Cavaliers, in rebuilding mode, are far more bought into their coaches than anything the 'Noles have going on.

Northwestern (-13.5) at Michigan State

This may be a trap similar to Iowa above. Michigan State has scored seven total points in their last two games, while Northwestern has held two opponents to single-digits and not allowed more than 20 in any game. Maybe they are due a letdown after last week's upset, and they certainly aren't an offensive juggernaut, scoring between 17 and 27 points in their last four after a 43-point explosion in their season opener. But the Spartans have struggled against the pass a bit, and I'll trust Peyton Ramsey to engineer enough scoring drives to cover this, with the assumption the Spartans don't score much, if at all.

Florida Atlantic (-6.5) at Middle Tennessee State

I'm all in on the Owls defense and have been waiting for a small enough spread to feel good, as their offense isn't good. And here we are! FAU is second nationally in points allowed, surrendering 11.2 points per game, three times allowing six points or less. MTSU has a great QB in Asher O'Hara, but nothing else, and it's resulted in just three wins and five games of 20 points or less. FAU ranks 38th in rushing offense, and MTSU 113th in rush defense. The Owls will run at will, scoring as a result while also shortening the game in route to an easy win.

Vanderbilt (+15) at Missouri

I was all in on Vandy upsetting Tennessee before that cancellation, but I'll stay the course with the Commodores. Simply put, they are playing hard and I believe their improving on a weekly basis. I think the rescheduling and lack of preparation help their cause, and I don't fully understand the line. They were nine-point dogs at home against UT before the PPD, do we think traveling to Missouri is worth six additional points when home field isn't its usual advantage? Missouri hasn't scored more than 20 points in any of their last three, the last two coming against defenseless Florida and a depleted South Carolina. This is just too many points for their limited offense to cover.

Last week: 1-3, Season: 27-28-2

GREG'S PICKS

Well it was bound to happen, right? You talk about a winning streak long enough and eventually, it will come to an end, but this isn't about a jinx, this is about regressing back to the mean. After a rough start to the season, I was bound to have good run at some point, but even I was surprised that it lasted eight weeks. Last week was not good, but in my defense, I had one loss that should not have happened.  

My first losing effort in nine weeks produced a 1-3 result. One game was canceled because of COVID and another probably should have been. That game was East Carolina and Temple, which was delayed over an hour because of a COVID test. Temple already had several players missing and likely could have called this game off, but instead decided to play, well, play is a relative term, because the Owls were terrible, at least on offense. Anyhow, that game never had a chance to go over. The other losses were FAU, which didn't show up until the 2nd-half and the over in the NC State game, which was oddly a low-scoring affair somehow. The lone win was pretty easy with Iowa cruising past Penn State.

Iowa (-13.5) vs Nebraska

For the second time in the past decade, the Cornhuskers have a QB that looks like he doesn't understand the physics behind throwing a football. I'm not sure where they find these kids, but that offense, it stinks. The 'Huskers beat Penn State at home and played Northwestern fairly tight on the road, but Penn State is terrible, and the Wildcats don't really have the offense to pull away from many teams. Iowa on the other hand has pulled away from its past three opponents, with an average margin of victory of 30 points during that span. My only concern with Iowa this week is focus as it's been pretty easy for them over the past three weeks.        

Over (67.5) UCF at South Florida

South Florida continues to be a great over play as its offense is doing just enough while its defense continues to be terrible. Only once in its past five games has the total gone under 67 points. UCF has been all over the map on defense this season, but its offense has been very consistent. The Knights managed 33 points against a strong Cincinnati defense this past week and that was their lowest output of the season. This is a team that's used to scoring 40+ points against weak competition and that what they're getting this week. Expect the offense to keep humming along and the defense to check out mentally just long enough for USF to put up 20+ points.               

Over (68) North Carolina vs. Notre Dame 

I'm admittedly a little uncomfortable going over this number with Notre Dame involved, but the Fighting Irish's past two games have resulted in an average of over 80 points per game. I still don't view Notre Dame as a great over play on a weekly basis, but its running what might be the best over team in the country in UNC. North Carolina is coming off a game that saw over 100 points scored and that was no fluke. The Tar Heels play fast and they are extremely efficient on offense. In their past four games they've averaged 52 points per game. Their defense meanwhile has surrendered nearly 35 per game.               

Clemson (-22.5) vs Pittsburgh

Clemson has been stewing over its loss to Notre Dame for a couple of weeks now and the Tigers are about to unleash hell on their next opponent. A seemingly capable Panther team comes to town this week, but this team is anything but reliable. They've won their past two games, which only means they are due for another dud, just like the one they had at Notre Dame last month when they lost by 42 points. The win last week against Virginia Tech was impressive, but this team has shown no consistency this season and it's about to run into a pissed off Tiger team that's getting the best player in the nation back this week.          

Northwestern (-13.5) at Michigan State

 The Big 10 has developed a reputation over the past decade, at least in the middle of the conference, as being pretty unpredictable from week to week, but that's not the case this season as there are clearly have and have-nots. Michigan State is a "have-not" this season and there's no debating that. The Spartans appear to be running a middle school-level offense and their defense isn't much better. There are only two questions you need to ask about this game. Can Northwestern stay focused and can the Wildcats score 14 points? If the answer to both is yes, then you have your ATS cover. Heck, if the answer to the first question is maybe, you still probably have your cover.            

Last Week: 1-3-0, Season: 30-25-0