This article is part of our College Football Picks series.
Alamo Bowl Picks: BYU vs. Colorado
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The 10-2 BYU Cougars meet the 9-3 Colorado Buffaloes in a unique bowl-season conference matchup in the Valero Alamo Bowl. Colorado had high expectations coming into the season, but some early season slip-ups derailed bigger plans. BYU had no such expectations until a 9-0 start had the Cougars thinking playoff, but a late-season slump foiled those plans.
BYU vs. Colorado Betting Odds for the Alamo Bowl
Spread: Colorado -3.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook); BYU +4.0 (BetMGM)
Moneyline: Colorado -184 (FanDuel Sportsbook); BYU +175 (BetMGM)
Total: Over/Under 54.5 (ESPNBet)
The spread opened at Colorado -2.5 and has inched above the magic number of three, which is a sign that the public is pretty confident in the Buffaloes. The total opened at 54.5 and hasn't budged. Normally we can find some variance in the total from book to book, but 54.5 seems to be the only number available at the moment.
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BYU vs. Colorado Betting Picks for the Alamo Bowl
As mentioned earlier, this is actually a conference match up, which is very strange in bowl season. Historically, conference teams have generally met up at some point during the regular season, which made a rematch unappealing. But these two never met, which is part of what makes this in intriguing match up.
As is the current state of bowl season, we need to start with who won't be playing in this game as often times, both teams are decimated by departures. In this case however, we are pretty clean in that BYU hasn't lost anyone to the transfer portal yet and all the big guns for Colorado plan to play. Now, how much they plan to play is up for debate, but I have to imagine once they get into the game, they'll want to finish the job.
With that in mind, we can look at the numbers this season and put plenty of stock into how each team fared during the regular season because we should be getting a familiar version of each team.
Most of the press on Colorado revolves around the high-octane offense, but it's the defense that turned the Buffaloes fortunes around after a very disappointing 2023 season. No, this isn't a great defense, but Colorado doesn't need a great defense to win games, it just needs a defense that won't lose games. Let's not forget, they've got the Heisman trophy winner, Travis Hunter on that side of the ball, so even if they give up some yards, a big play is always just around the corner. The Buffaloes ranked 43rd against the pass this season and 70th against the run. As for the offense, it's all about the passing game. Colorado ranked 4th in passing yards per game this season.
BYU however was fairly stout against the pass this season, ranking 18th in yards allowed. The Cougars are also good against the run, but that probably won't come into play. As for the offense, the Cougars are fairly balanced, but they don't excel at anything, ranking 59th through the air and 72nd on the ground.
The picture developing here is one of strength vs. strength. Colorado does almost everything through the air and BYU is good and slowing down passing attacks. However, the Cougars haven't seen anything like what the Buffaloes bring to the table. In addition, BYU limped to the finish line, losing two of their final three games and the one win was a 12-point win over a mediocre Houston team in a game that was much closer than expected. The only question here is how committed the Colorado players are to winning this game, but something tells me that Coach Sanders will have them ready to play.
BYU vs. Colorado Expert Pick: Colorado -3.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
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BYU vs. Colorado Predictions for the Alamo Bowl
There may be a bit of a feeling out process for the Buffalo offense as BYU is no pushover on defense and some of the Colorado star players may be a bit rusty after awards season. Eventually, Shedeur Sanders and company will start moving the ball with relative ease. The fast track of the Alamodome should only help the offense get up and down the field in what could be a game that gets away from BYU.
Colorado hasn't won a bowl game since 2004 and you can bet that this crew of departing stars wants to get bowl win for their coach. It may be a bit sloppy early on, but I'm expecting some major fireworks in the second half - most of which will come from the Buffaloes.
Colorado 38 - BYU 24
