NCAA Tournament Preview: South Region

SOUTH REGION PREVIEW

The South region boasts some past tournament sensations. Staples of the tournament like Duke, Georgetown, St. John's and Gonzaga comprise a quarter of this side of the bracket. Another former juggernaut, UCLA, was a surprise inclusion in the final field; skeptics did not think the Bruins had not done enough to make the Big Dance. Meanwhile, sleepers abound in this region, with Davidson and Stephen F. Austin proving in recent memory to have what it takes to survive and advance. Eastern Washington is dangerous, and even North Dakota State could open some eyes. Perhaps no region is more susceptible to a double-digit seed making the Sweet 16 than the South.

THE FAVORITES

No. 1 Duke - The Blue Devils earned the region's top seed despite falling in the ACC tournament semifinal to eventual champion Notre Dame. Jahlil Okafor is arguably the nation's best player, and the surefire top pick in this June's NBA Draft. The Blue Devils can score in a variety of ways, as Okafor is a capable passer out of the post, finding teammates for open three-pointers. Justise Winslow has played better as the season has progressed, and the athletic, physical swingman gives the Blue Devils a bit of swagger. While Quinn Cook has had a superior senior season, it's freshman Tyus Jones who is the real catalyst for this squad. Duke has had a bevy of quality wins, and only lost four games this season; two to Notre Dame, one to N.C. State, a tournament team, and one to Miami, who might have deserved to be included in the field, as well.

No. 2 Gonzaga - The Zags are loaded with talent. An elite offensive unit, Gonzaga averaged nearly 80 points per game and was in the top 10 in points, assists and field-goal percentage this season. Kentucky transfer Kyle Wiltjer leads the way, a stretch-four who is a lights-out shooter from long range. Kevin Pangos is an experienced, versatile point guard who can spread the wealth or get his own shot. The Bulldogs are big, too, led by freshman Domantas Sabonis on the glass. His father, Arvydas, had a superb playing career overseas, and in the NBA. This might be the best team coach Mark Few has had at Gonzaga.

No. 3 Iowa State - Under coach Fred Hoiberg, the Cyclones have won back-to-back Big 12 Tournament crowns. Iowa State is in a familiar spot, having been a No. 3 seed a year ago as well. They ran into a buzzsaw last season, losing to eventual champion UConn in the Sweet 16. The Cyclones are led by Georges Niang, a smooth-operating 6-foot-8 point-forward who does a little bit of everything and is a matchup nightmare for opposing defenses. Monte Morris is an excellent passer, while the X-factor could be UNLV transfer Bryce Dejean-Jones, who did not play as much down the stretch. Dustin Hogue and Jameel McKay are underrated forwards, though more offensive minded. If the Cyclones lack for anything, it's consistent quality defense.

No. 4 Georgetown - The Hoyas are backcourt-heavy, led by the senior tandem of D'Vauntes Smith-Rivera and Jabril Trawick. The latter has been a bit of an enigma at times for Georgetown, but Smith-Rivera has been steady as ever, including five 20-point games over his last 10 starts. The Hoyas have also gotten elevated play from Joshua Smith; the former UCLA Bruin is an absolute load at 6-10, 350. However, the big man has a soft touch around the rim and has improved his rebounding, as well. The Hoyas are feisty and old school on the defensive end, forcing turnovers at a high rate.

CINDERELLA WATCH

No. 12 Stephen F. Austin - The Lumberjacks find themselves in familiar territory, returning to the Big Dance for the second straight year as a 12 seed. It took a miraculous four-point play to send last year's first-round game to overtime, but SFA ultimately gutted out a win over VCU for the upset. This year's version is just as dangerous; the Lumberjacks can score with anybody, leading the nation in assists while averaging 79.5 points per game. Junior Thomas Walkup loves to get into the paint and wreak havoc, while senior Jacob Parker has worked extremely hard to develop an inside-out game. The experienced Lumberjacks have lost once in almost four months.

No. 13 Eastern Washington - The Eagles have the leading scorer in the country in Tyler Harvey, who takes more than nine three-pointers per game. Harvey is no slouch at getting to the rim either, though, shooting 85-percent from the foul line on almost six trips per game. The matchup with Georgetown is a complete clash of styles; the Hoyas want to slow the pace down and score in the painted area. The Eagles want to get up and down and hoist treys. Don't sleep on Venky Jois; the junior forward is a superior rebounder for his size, and has a much-improved offensive repertoire.

BIGGEST BUST

No. 4 Georgetown - With the exception of a win over Villanova, the Hoyas pretty much only beat the teams they should have. Georgetown went 8-0 against the bottom four teams in the Big East, but 4-6 against the rest of the league in conference play. Georgetown's best non-conference wins were against bubble team Indiana and non-tourney squad Florida. The victory over Villanova gives the Hoyas credibility, but that could also be chalked up to conference familiarity. The Hoyas are an underwhelming offensive team, and a mediocre defensive squad. They could grind out wins in the Big East, but likely won't be able to do the same in the NCAA Tournament, particularly in what looks to be an offensive-minded region.

FIRST-ROUND UPSET

No. 12 Stephen F. Austin vs. No. 5 Utah - The classic 12-5 trap game provides another intriguing matchup in the South regional. The Lumberjacks have been here before, playing the role of Cinderella in last season's big dance. Utah has the extremely versatile Delon Wright, but the Utes benefitted from a down year in the Pac-12. The Utes went 1-5 against the three other tournament squads from the Pac-12. Their biggest win of the season was an overtime victory against Wichita State in early December. Utah is 11th in the country in points allowed; the Lumberjacks are ninth in the nation in points scored. Meanwhile, Utah scored more than 70 points just twice in its last eight games. While Utah will try to keep the score down, teams that struggle to score are often susceptible to upsets in the tournament. This contest looks ripe for the taking for SFA, an efficient, high-scoring offensive unit.

PLAYER TO WATCH

Jahlil Okafor, Center, Duke - An easy selection here, as Okafor is not only the best player in this region, but perhaps the best player in college basketball. He is a throwback big man, playing with his back to the basket. He has an extremely polished post game with a bevy of moves. He is tall, strong and not afraid of contact. His game is reminiscent of Patrick Ewing at Georgetown, or Hakeem Olajuwon at Houston. There is nobody in this region who can handle him.

SWEET 16 PICKS

No. 1 Duke - No. 16 has ever beaten a No. 1 seed, and it's not going to happen for North Florida or Robert Morris. Duke has already beaten St. John's this season, and the Red Storm will also be without shot-blocking sensation Chris Obekpa. San Diego State, meanwhile, couldn't score 50 points in the Mountain West championship against Wyoming. It should be cruise control for the Blue Devils into the Sweet 16.

No. 12 Stephen F. Austin - The No. 5 and No. 4 seeds are weak in this region, and primed for upsets. That leaves a second-round matchup between double-digit seeds, with the more experienced Lumberjacks coming out on top. Eastern Washington can certainly put the ball in the basket, but the Lumberjacks are a bit more well-rounded.

No. 3 Iowa State - The UAB Blazers don't stand a chance against the Cyclones, but an intriguing matchup looms between Larry Brown's SMU squad and Fred Hoiberg's crew. SMU is dangerous, but ultimately the play of the slick Georges Niang should lift Iowa State into the Sweet 16.

No. 2 Gonzaga - This Gonzaga team is better than the one that earned a No. 1 seed with Kelly Olynyk a few seasons ago. North Dakota State won't be able to keep pace with the Zags, though a second-round matchup with Iowa's frontcourt of Aaron White and Jared Uthoff could give the Bulldogs some issues. The Hawkeyes don't have enough scoring either, though, and the Bulldogs should shoot their way into the later rounds.

FINAL FOUR PICK

No. 1 Duke - It isn't sexy to pick the No. 1 seed, but that appears to be the most likely outcome. The top half of the bracket sets up nicely for the Blue Devils, as the first two games take place close to home. Gonzaga seems to falter as a top seed, and there's always a certain sense of the unknown with the Zags due to their weak conference slate. The Bulldogs haven't played a ranked team since an OT loss to Arizona on Dec. 6. Iowa State looks to pose the greatest threat to Coach K's run toward yet another Final Four, but the Cyclones don't have an answer for Jahlil Okafor. The Blue Devils are talented and battle-tested, having beaten Virginia and Wisconsin on the road this season. It's bland, it's vanilla, it's Duke. But that's how the South region shakes out.