Sweet 16 Preview: West Region

East Region Sweet 16 Preview
West Region Sweet 16 Preview
Midwest Region Sweet 16 Preview
South Region Sweet 16 Preview

Site: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV

Tip-off: Thursday, March 23, 7:15 p.m. EST

The West region went nearly unscathed in terms of upsets, especially compared to the other regions as none of the higher seeded teams were able to pull off a first round upset, while top-seeded Kansas was the only team not to meet their seed expectation. Arkansas will look to continue its surprise run after knocking off a one-seed for a second consecutive year.  

No. 4 Connecticut vs. No. 8 Arkansas

Key Matchup: Ricky Council vs. Jordan Hawkins

Council was reinserted into the starting lineup by Eric Musselman to begin the NCAA Tournament, and the 6-6 wing has responded by averaging 19.5 points and eight boards while playing all but one minute over the two games. The Wichita State transfer and projected second-round NBA Draft pick has dealt with some inconsistency and is shooting just 27 percent from three, but he makes up for it by being efficient when driving to the basket and has attempted double-digit free throws in both tournament games thus far. Meanwhile, UConn features sophomore SG Jordan Hawkins, who has taken a big step forward in his second season by averaging 2.8 made threes per game on 37 percent shooting from beyond the arc. He's been held in check somewhat with 12.5 ppg during the tournament but will likely be needed at some point, as Arkansas will look to have someone other than Adama Sanogo beat them.

UConn will win IF: It continues to stay hot from deep. UConn relies pretty heavily on its 3-point shooting and has gotten off to a good start with at least 10 threes made in each of its tournament games thus far. The Huskies have just two losses since February and in both games, they shot under 30 percent from deep. In addition to Hawkins, Tristen Newton, Joey Calcaterra and Alex Karaban are each shooting over 35 percent from long range on the season with over one three made per game. That makes it a challenge for any team thinking of double-teaming Sanogo in the post.

Arkansas will win IF: It can find a reliable third scoring option. Council and Davonte Davis have carried this team to the Sweet 16, being the top two Arkansas scorers in both games and accounting for 55 percent of the team's points. Who is going to step up to help? Nick Smith and Anthony Black are projected lottery picks in this year's NBA Draft, but Smith has posted just six points in two games after entering the tournament with seven straight double-digit scoring games, while Black is 5-of-18 (28 percent) while battling through a foot injury.

Player to watch: Adama Sanogo, C, UConn. Sanogo had another dominant season, leading the team in both points (17.3 ppg) and rebounds (7.4 rpg). He's upped his level in the NCAA Tournament, averaging a whopping 26 points and 10.5 rebounds over 26 minutes per game. If a stout Saint Mary's defense wasn't able to slow him down, an Arkansas team that doesn't start anyone over 6-7 is going to have its hands full.

Prediction: I think this game comes down to the wire with UConn ultimately pulling it out as the more well-balanced of the two teams with the experience edge as well. Arkansas has been a sound defensive team all season long, especially from the perimeter where teams are only shooting 30.6 percent from three. However, the Huskies have been far too impressive for me to pick against them, dismantling a quality Iona squad and taking care of business with a 15-point win over a 27-win Saint Mary's team. 

SWEET 16 PICK: Connecticut Huskies
 

No. 2 UCLA vs. No. 3 Gonzaga

Key Matchup: Jaime Jaquez vs. Julian Strawther. This is an intriguing matchup between two 6-7 wings that are each three-level scorers. Jaquez, in his fourth season as a starter for the Bruins, is being relied on even more heavily with Jaylen Clark out for the year and Adem Bona and David Singleton dealing with injuries. He's been up to the challenge so far with 41 points and 16 rebounds through two games. The Zags will counter with Strawther, who should feel comfortable back in his hometown of Vegas. He lit up Grand Canyon in the opening round with a 28-point double-double but only shot 30 percent against TCU. With a multitude of scoring options, the Zags are a difficult team to beat if Strawther gets going.

UCLA will win IF: Tyger Campbell steps up to the occasion. The Bruins need a big game from their senior point guard, who is shooting a mere 2-for-16 through two tournament games. While he's done a great job facilitating the offense with 17 assists, seeing the player that put up 28 points in a Pac-12 semifinal win over Oregon would be a welcome sign.

Gonzaga will win IF: The defense can match the offense. Gonzaga has the top-ranked offense in KenPom's efficiency metric, while the defense has lagged behind and been one of Mark Few's worst defensive teams historically. Shutting down Amari Bailey, who has had an inconsistent freshman season will be key as he's played well over UCLA's last three games to provide some much-needed offense in the absence of Clark.

Player to watch: Drew Timme, C, Gonzaga. It feels like Timme is a player we've been watching for several years, and he still has another year of eligibility should he decide to postpone his professional options for another year. The face of Gonzaga basketball has put the team on his back in a pair of games in which they've struggled at times, averaging 24.5 points on 59 percent shooting. The 6-10 post player has been one of the best players in college basketball this season, shooting 64 percent from two with a 30.3 percent usage rate.

Prediction: This is the third straight year these two teams are facing each other after Gonzaga survived in overtime in the Final Four two years ago and then won by 20 on a neutral court early last season. Ultimately, I like the Zags to make it three in a row, as they have been one of the best teams in college basketball over the past month and a half. UCLA would the pick if they were at full strength, but the loss of Clark, mixed with Bona and Singleton at less than 100 percent, just feels like too much to overcome.

SWEET 16 PICK: Gonzaga Bulldogs