Sweet 16 Preview: South Region

Midwest Region
West Region
East Region
South Region

Site: Louisville, KY
Tip-off: Thursday

The lowest remaining seed in the tournament resides in the South Region, in what has otherwise been a very chalky March Madness thus far.  No. 12 Oregon rode the automatic berth from the Pac-12 Tournament Championship through to the Sweet 16, dispatching of Wisconsin and UC-Irvine by an average of 18.5 points. The Ducks have now won 10 games in a row heading into their clash with top-seeded Virginia.

The Cavaliers exorcised their demons in Round 1, avenging last season's loss to a No. 16 seed.  It was a struggle, though, as the UVA trailed Gardner-Webb, making its first-ever NCA Tournament appearance, at halftime. The Hoos got their act together in time, though, and shook off the nerves to post a rousing second-round win over an inconsistent Oklahoma squad.

On the other side of the region, the favorites reigned supreme, albeit not without some difficulties along the way.  Tennessee outlasted a tough No. 15 seed in Colgate, and then blew a 25-point lead to Iowa before surviving in overtime. Admiral Schofield chose to stay on the bench for the entire overtime, as the team leader allowed fellow senior Kyle Alexander to impact the game with his size and rebounding, providing the difference along with two-time SEC Player of the Year Grant Williams.

By contrast, the Vols will face a Purdue squad that cruised through its first two matchups, foiling an upset bid by Old Dominion with a stellar defensive effort, and then catching fire in an 87-61 thrashing of the defending champion Villanova Wildcats. Perhaps no player comes into the Sweet 16 hotter than Purdue's Carsen Edwards, who went off for 42 points in the victory over 'Nova.

With the matchups in the South now set, let's take a deeper look at the upcoming games. 

No. 1 Virginia vs. No. 12 Oregon

Key Matchup: Mamadi Diakite vs. Kenny Wooten.  Diakite and Wooten have both provided similar outputs for their respective squads. Both players possess similar size, rebounding prowess and shot-blocking ability. Diakite got the surprise start for the Hoos in the second round versus Oklahoma and rewarded coach Tony Bennett with 14 points, nine rebounds and three blocks, dominating the interior for the defensive-minded Cavaliers. Wooten, meanwhile, has enjoyed a few block parties of his own, including swatting seven shots in a ferocious performance against UC-Irvine, overwhelming the Anteaters on the interior. While there are perhaps more important individual players on each side, the lack of size for each team means this matchup will go a long way towards determining the outcome.

Virginia will Win IF: The Cavs can defend the three-point line. Defense is what Virginia does best, but the Hoos will have a difficult challenge when the face the scalding Oregon Ducks. Oregon has been particularly dangerous from long range, shooting an even 50 percent from downtown thus far in the tourney. Virginia, meanwhile, has held the opposition to 37.8 percent shooting from three-point land through its two contests. Something has got to give. Expect Virginia to clamp down on Oregon's three-point shooters to avoid allowing the streaky Ducks to catch fire.

Oregon will Win IF: The Ducks value the basketball. While defense has been the calling card for the Ducks during the first two games of the tournament, Oregon's success has been buoyed by the combination of limiting turnovers and sharing the ball on offense. Oregon is averaging 13 assists per game in the tourney, while turning the ball over less than 10 times per tilt. Against a suffocating defense like Virginia, those two categories will be paramount. Oregon must continue to share the ball on offense and avoid playing "hero ball", while also making sure not to give the stifling Cavs additional opportunities due to careless mistakes.

Player to Watch: Payton Pritchard, G, Oregon. Pritchard is the catalyst for the Oregon offense, and it should come as no surprise that his own late-season surge has coincided with Oregon's foray into the Sweet 16. Over the last five games, which includes three contests in the Pac-12 Tournament, Pritchard is averaging 19 points, 4.4 rebounds and seven dimes. Pritchard did have seven turnovers in the opening-round win over Wisconsin, though, so he can be affected if the defense is right. It did not matter in that game, but with Virginia's superb defense on tap, Pritchard's ability to hold onto the basketball could have a direct impact on this knockdown, drag-out affair.

Prediction: Offense gets the fame, but defense wins the game. In what should be a low scoring slugfest, the Cavaliers will have just a couple more clutch buckets and make enough stops on the defensive end to dispatch of the scorching Ducks. Keep in mind that Virginia has won basically without the services of Kyle Guy, who has scored just 12 points in two combined games for UVA thus far after averaging 15.1 points per contest on the season. Expect Guy to catch fire at some point and spur the Cavaliers to the Elite Eight. 

No. 3 Purdue vs. No. 2 Tennessee

Key Matchup: Carsen Edwards vs. Lamonte Turner. There's no telling whether these two players will actually guard each other. That being said, they're similar in size as well as in the way they can affect the game in a variety of ways. Edwards is a scorer at heart, leading the Big Ten in scoring during the season and posting 42 points in a white-hot outing versus Villanova in the second round. He hit nine three-pointers as well as nine free-throws in that virtuoso performance. Turner, meanwhile, is averaging 14 points, 4.0 rebounds and 4.5 assists per game for the Vols in the tourney, and played a team-high 41 minutes in the OT win over Iowa. It will likely be a team effort for the Vols in guarding Edwards, while Turner will be one of many effective catalysts for the Vols on offense.

Purdue will Win IF: the Boilermakers stay hot from the three-point line. The three-pointer is the great equalizer, and while it was not needed much in a gritty first-round win over defensive-minded Old Dominion, Purdue let it fly from long distance in the second round with great success. In fact, the Boilermakers canned 16 treys overall, shooting over 50 percent from beyond the arc. Tennessee averages over 82 points per game on the season, so the Boilermakers will need to hit their treys in order to keep pace, and perhaps beat the high-scoring Vols.

Tennessee will Win IF: The Vols avoid foolish mistakes. That includes turnovers and fouls. Tennessee turned the ball over 17 times in their narrow victory over Iowa, and sloppy play in the second half was largely to blame for allowing the Hawkeyes back into the game after the Vols had built a comfortable lead. Tennessee also had three players with four fouls, including their best players in the form of Grant Williams and Admiral Schofield. Tennessee has yet to play a full 40 minutes, and you can bet coach Rick Barnes will hammer home the need to value possessions as well as the basketball during the upcoming week of practice.

Player to Watch: Carsen Edwards, G, Purdue.  Not to beat a dead horse, but as Edwards goes, so do the Boilermakers. While the Vols can win in a variety of ways, the success of Purdue likely hinges upon the effectiveness of Edwards, who is far and away the best player on the squad. If Edwards gets hot early, like in Sunday's dominant win over Villanova, the Boilermakers have a puncher's chance to get to the Elite Eight.

Prediction: Tennessee survived a lackluster first-round performance, as well as blowing a monster lead in the second round to Iowa. The Boilermakers, meanwhile, largely coasted through their first two wins in impressive fashion. Nevertheless, while the Vols have not played a complete game as of yet, Tennessee is a more well-rounded group than Purdue, which relies too much on the impressive Edwards to jump-start their offense.  The Vols are battle-tested, while the Boilermakers have not yet been in a close matchup in the big dance. It should be a dandy, but the Vols have the more complete roster and should send Edwards and the feisty Boilermakers home.