This article is part of our RotoWire Bracketology series.
The main thing to remember about the bubble is that it's full of mediocre teams. It may seem like one loss for any of these teams could push them to the NIT, but often, it'll require more than that. Of the 15-plus teams I'm writing about on the bubble, about half of them will have at least one more loss and possibly two the rest of the regular season.
Closer to Selection Sunday, I'll really grind the games and get into the intricacies of Quad 1 and Quad 2 results, but with a few more games to go for each team, this is a quick overview of the bubble teams, using mainly NET, KenPom and Strength of Record (SOR). Combining those metrics is the best of both worlds, using what the computers think a team will do in the future (NET, KenPom) with what a team has already done (SOR).
For a live, updated bracket throughout the week check out our RotoWire Bracketology page.
THE BUBBLE
FEELING FINE
Michigan State (NET 22, KenPom 19, SOR 43)
As an alum, I have to write about the Spartans because they've been on the bubble pretty much all season, and social media has suggested they're going to miss the tournament after every loss. Oddly, the predictive metrics are keeping them on the good side of the bubble despite what the eye test shows. Most notably, their worst loss is against James Maddison in overtime, a team that was in the AP Top 25 earlier in the season. Combine a good NET with no bad losses, and that's better than most teams on this list. Of course, add another loss or two and things will get interesting.
Florida Atlantic (NET 34, KenPom 39, SOR 38)
I've bet against the Owls all season because I felt like they were overrated after opening the season in the AP Top 10 but just No. 36 at KenPom. Since beating Arizona in December, FAU is 5-13 against the spread. While I doubt their ability to make another Final Four, they shouldn't have a problem making the tournament. However, a loss against Memphis in the finale and then in the AAC tournament could change those thoughts.
Virginia (NET 50, KenPom 67, SOR 35)
The sportsbooks seem to be on a different page than bracketologists, and if you like to bet, that's something to consider. The Cavaliers have hit a wall offensively the past few weeks, but as long as they beat Georgia Tech and win their first game in the ACC tournament, I'd be surprised if the NCAA Committee decided to keep them out. Their worst losses came on the road, and they also won at Clemson, a projected 5-seed. Will the committee keep out the ACC's No. 3 seed with a 13-7 conference record? I can't see it.
STAYING ABOVE
Villanova (NET 29, KenPom 29, SOR 56)
Villanova was No. 41 at KenPom one month ago, climbed to No. 24 following some double-digit wins and dropped to 29 after Wednesday's loss. This is where metrics come into play because realistically, nothing the Wildcats have done in the past month has been overly exciting, as they got a boost from double-digit wins against Seton Hall, Butler and Providence.
Most importantly in their favor, they have wins at Creighton and on a neutral against Texas Tech and North Carolina. I still don't think they're in the clear with three Quad 3 losses and their next couple results will be vital. If they beat Creighton, there shouldn't be any worries, but if they lose to Creighton and then fall in the quarter-finals of the Big East tournament, things will be far less certain.
Seton Hall (NET 63, KenPom 56, SOR 36)
The underlying numbers on Seton Hall have been bad all season, never dropping below 52 at KenPom. Losing a ton of games by double digits will do that, but the Pirates still have a lot going for them. They swept St. John's, another Big East team on the bubble, and their worst losses are against USC and Rutgers, teams inside the NET Top 100, barely. Since their final regular season game is against DePaul, they'll likely need at least one relevant win in the Big East tournament to stay on the right side of the bubble.
St. John's (NET 36, KenPom 28, SOR 46)
St. John's is kind of the opposite of Seton Hall. The underlying numbers are solid despite having an almost identical resume in terms of good wins and bad losses. I think the committee may only pick one of these teams unless they both get to the semi-finals of the Big East tournament. As it stands, the Red Storm are 9-11 in Q1/Q2 compared to 9-10 for the Pirates. Not much separates them outside of differing predictive metrics. This may be a perfect test case for the committee in favoring a team's NET versus Strength of Record.
South Florida (NET 74, KenPom 83, SOR 47)
You can't lose at home against Central Michigan and live to tell about it. Or can you? South Florida wasn't good early in the season, as bad as No. 183 in KenPom. Following a 15th-straight win Tuesday, the Bulls were down to 85. The problem is that the AAC isn't very good and even with wins against FAU, Memphis and SMU, the great wins are lacking. That said, even with some bad losses early in the season, they're 6-3 in Q1/Q2 and I think they're better than Florida Atlantic. If so, they may win the AAC tournament and won't have to sweat out Selection Sunday.
New Mexico (NET 26, KenPom 36, SOR 65)
I think the Mountain West created a situation for itself to where five or six teams will make the NCAA tournament. Outside of a couple wins against Creighton, the non-conference results aren't really there. And because the conference is so top heavy, the top teams use the bottom three or four teams as almost free wins. Of course, when New Mexico lost to Air Force at home, that changed things.
New Mexico beat Nevada by one point, which is its only road win against a top-200 KenPom team. Throw in a few non-conference wins on neutral courts against non-top 100 KenPom teams and the Lobos find themselves on the bubble. If they lose at Utah State and then the quarter-finals of the Mountain West tournament, I'll probably move them out. That would likely leave them with 10 losses and a 5-8 record in Q1 and Q2. Sorry, Young Pitino.
Colorado (NET 31, KenPom 32, SOR 50)
The Buffaloes have one of the best home-court advantages in the country, which is why the next week is important for them to get more road and neutral wins. At the moment, I prefer them to Richmond (and Utah) unlike a lot of other bracketologists. In addition to winning the head-to-head matchup, Colorado has no Q3/Q4 losses, while Richmond has two. Even with a loss at Oregon, I think Colorado still has a decent shot of getting in as long as things don't fall apart in the final Pac-12 tournament.
NEEDING MORE
Richmond (NET 69, KenPom 76, SOR 53)
Richmond is one of a couple teams getting the benefit of a lot of Power Five conference teams struggling. The resume isn't exciting, but the Spiders have won 18 of their last 20 games, which gets them into the conversation playing in the Atlantic 10. To have a chance, they can't lose at George Mason this weekend in addition to making at least the semi-finals of the conference tournament.
Utah (NET 46, KenPom 48, SOR 55)
How far can non-conference wins against Wake Forest, St. Mary's (road) and BYU go? The Utes got up to 21 in KenPom in January, but a 25-point loss to Washington and second loss to Arizona State dropped them. Similar to the Buffs, they could use another road win (at Oregon on Saturday) and will likely need at least one win in the Pac-12 tournament. Since their numbers are so close to Colorado's, there's a chance non-conference strength of schedule comes into play, as well.
Wake Forest (NET 42, KenPom 27, SOR 69)
The Demon Deacons are in a bad place. After beating Duke, they've lost to Notre Dame, Virginia Tech and most recently on a buzzer beater, home against Georgia Tech. Even with a win against Clemson on Saturday, I think they need to do more in the ACC tournament, though similar to other teams in the conference, it's easier to lose bad games than find wins against elite teams in the ACC. Wake's tournament hopes may come down to beating a top-four seed in the ACC tournament.
Providence (NET 61, KenPom 58, SOR 44)
Providence will have a much better chance of getting into the tournament with a win against UConn on Saturday. Assuming that doesn't happen, the Friars don't have a ton of things in their favor, as 10 of their 19 wins are considered Quad 4. While they don't have a bad loss, they're 7-11 in the first two quadrants and outside of SOR, the metrics aren't in their favor. If they lose to UConn, at 10-10 in league play, they'll likely need to make the Big East semi-finals to feel a little more comfortable with their NCAA tournament resume.
Iowa (NET 57, KenPom 49, SOR 45)
The Hawkeyes only recently entered the conversation following road wins at Michigan State and Northwestern, two teams on the right side of the bubble. However, they're still just 8-11 in the first two quadrants and their best three wins (home against Wisconsin included) have come in the last three weeks. If they beat Illinois on Sunday, things could get interesting in the Big Ten tournament. But if they lose against Illinois, the Hawkeyes are looking at 14 losses and a 10-10 record in what the committee likely considers a down year for the conference.
Pittsburgh (NET 44, KenPom 43, SOR 49)
The opportunities for elite wins in conferences like the ACC are few and far between, something I wrote about when touching on what seems like an overrated Big 12. Pittsburgh has won eight of its last 10 games and its resume still isn't that enticing. The Panthers won at Duke, but they also lost at home to Syracuse and Missouri, and 13 of their 20 wins are in Q3/Q4, four of those against ACC teams. If they beat NC State on Saturday, the ACC tournament could be huge for their chances and a spot in the semi-finals would do wonders for their resume.
Drake (NET 48, KenPom 55, SOR 59)
It's the same conversation every year when discussing mid-majors on the bubble. Drake probably deserves to be in March Madness, but conference losses to Belmont, Missouri State and Northern Iowa don't help the cause. Of course, winning the MVC tournament against Indiana State would take away any questions, but the Bulldogs would be an underdog if that matchup happened for the third time. It's unclear what happened in a 24-point loss against Stephen F. Austin earlier in the season (at the Cayman Islands Classic), but it's a loss that may sink the chances of a tourney bid. It sucks, but that's how it works.
Metrics prior to games on Thursday, March 7
For a live, updated bracket throughout the week check out our RotoWire Bracketology page.
