Final Four Preview: North Carolina vs. Syracuse

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Syracuse Orange, Midwest Region No. 10 Seed

Backcourt: The Orange trot out a pair of seniors in their backcourt in Michael Gbinije (17.6 ppg) and Trevor Cooney (12.7 ppg). Along with freshman wing Malachi Richardson (13.3 ppg), that trio makes up the top-three scorers on the team. Gbinije, who has taken a leap forward in most statistical categories this season, is tasked with the primary ball-handling duties, as he is involved in a team-high 24.8 percent of possessions (per KenPom). The senior shot 39.9 percent from beyond the arc this season, but that mark has been reduced to 30 percent over four tournament games. All four remaining teams boast significant experience in the backcourt department, but this is an area, unlike most, where the No. 10-seeded Syracuse is right up to par with the competition.

Frontcourt: Jim Boeheim starts a frontcourt composed of 6-foot-9 senior DaJuan Coleman and 6-8 junior Tyler Roberson, but 6-8 freshman Tyler Lydon typically gets more minutes than both off the bench, especially of late (30.3 mpg compared to Coleman's 17.5 mpg). Lydon is also one of the most active contributors on the defensive end, blocking 17 shots in the last three games. Since the start of the tournament, he's averaged 10.8 points, 6.0 rebounds and 4.5 blocks per game. Even as the team's tallest regular rotation player, Lydon has shot a team-high 40.9 percent from beyond the arc this year en route to converting 115 three-pointers. Roberson may be the team's leading rebounder at 8.4 boards per contest, but it will be up to Lydon to establish the tone on the defensive end, where the team will be severely undersized. The Orange already struggle as a team in terms of rebounding, managing 35.8 boards per contest, good for 171st in the country. They will again have their work cut out for them against the Tar Heels, who start 6-10 Brice Johnson and 6-10 Kennedy Meeks, with 6-9 Isaiah Hicks and 6-11 Joel James contributing off the bench.

X-Factor: Freshman Malachi Richardson is really coming into his own as the tournament progresses. In his last matchup against North Carolina, when the Orange lost by five, Richardson was limited to 10 points on 3-of-9 shooting, collecting four personal fouls in the contest. They'll need to let him loose in this one, just as he did in the second half against Virginia, when he scored 21 of his 23 points, including 19 in the last 13 minutes. The freshman has averaged 14.5 points per contest over four tournament games, and he is actually shooting better from three-point range (36 percent) than he is overall (30.6 percent) over that span. North Carolina has struggled to defend the perimeter at times this season, allowing opponents to shoot 36 percent from beyond the arc (No. 252 in the country), and exploiting that weakness may fall into the hands of Richardson.

Who They Beat to Get Here:

Dayton 70-51
Middle Tennessee, 75-50
Gonzaga, 63-60
Virginia, 68-62

They'll Win If: They can keep the rebounding battle relatively close and exploit North Carolina's weakness defending the perimeter. As +9.5 underdogs (as of Monday), the Orange seem to have all of the factors stacked against them. That hasn't stopped them up to this point, however, and surely Jim Boeheim and his seniors will want to prove all those who questioned their presence in the tournament wrong. If they can keep the rebounding battle even enough, it will help them play at their own pace and avoid North Carolina getting easy transition buckets. Scoring down low might be tough to come by, so Cooney, Gbinije, Richardson and Lydon will all need to have effective outside shooting nights for the Orange to come out on top.

-- Jake Letarski

North Carolina Tar Heels, East Region No. 1 Seed

Backcourt: Senior Marcus Paige is the recognizable name for the Tar Heels' backcourt, but it's been a struggle during his final season, shooting career-lows from the floor (39.6 percent), three-point line (34.5 percent) and foul line (77.5 percent). That struggle has helped sophomore Joel Berry emerge into a silent leader, averaging 12.8 points and 3.6 assists per game while being arguably the team's most reliable three-point shooter. The two pair nicely to give UNC a set of capable ball handlers who collectively average only 2.7 turnovers per game. The duo lacks ideal size, however, both being around 6-feet tall and under 200 pounds, occasionally making them susceptible to bigger guards. Junior Nate Britt can spell both for periods, while rangy 6-6 sophomore Theo Pinson gives the Heels another option on the wing. Pinson is not a great shooter, but he's an energy guy capable of making a big play on defense and crashing the glass, in addition to being a skilled passer.

Frontcourt: This is where the Tar Heels shine, and few teams nationally can match up. They're led by Brice Johnson, a 6-10, 228-pound senior who just set the school's double-double record with 23 this season. He's averaging 21.0 points and 9.8 boards per game during the NCAA Tournament, but has elevated his defensive intensity, blocking 14 shots in the last four games. Big 6-10, 265-pound junior Kennedy Meeks starts alongside Johnson. Meeks has been inconsistent for most of 2016 after missing seven games in December due to a knee injury, but he remains a capable shooter from the foul line while also being a terrific outlet passer, sparking the Heels' up tempo offense. Sophomore Justin Jackson stands at 6-8 and gives the Heels frontcourt even more length. Though not a reliable shooter, Jackson has hit 6-of-13 from three-point range during the tournament after connecting on only 28.1 percent during the regular season. His preferred shot is a floater in the lane, something that should be available against Syracuse's 2-3 zone. Furthermore, his length makes him a capable defender. Sixth-man, junior Isaiah Hicks, gives the Heels another skilled big at 6-8, 230 pounds, and though he has struggled with fouls during the team's March run, he averaged 15.5 points and 7.0 rebounds per game in two regular-season matchups against Syracuse. Finally, 6-11, 280 pound senior Joel James gives the Heels yet another option on the interior. Limited in his offensive ability, James is a big body who can rebound and use his size to help defensively.

X-Factor: Outside shooting. The Tar Heels have proven all season they don't need to shoot well from the perimeter to score, as they rank first nationally in adjusted offense, according to KenPom. But UNC also ranks 238th in three-pointers made this season, 311th in three-pointers per game (5.5) and 285th in three-point percentage (32.1). Thanks largely to an 11-of-20 showing against Indiana, the Heels have picked up their perimeter shooting during the tournament, hitting 38.2 percent overall (26-of-68). When those shots are falling, they're virtually impossible to beat. But they've also not been put in a place all year where they have to rely on jump shots to win. Should Syracuse pack their zone in, the Heels could be in a bit of trouble.

Who They Beat to Get Here:

Florida Gulf Coast: 83-67
Providence: 85-66
Indiana: 101-86
Notre Dame: 88-74

They'll Win If: They play to their strength and pound the ball inside. It's easy to assume North Carolina needs to shoot well against the 2-3 zone in order to prevail. But that's not what got North Carolina here, and it shouldn't be what gets them to Monday. Syracuse won't play anyone over 6-9 or 210 pounds, while Meeks, Johnson and Hicks all have at least an inch and 20 pounds on the Orange's frontcourt. Meeks' ability to pass from the high post should allow for plenty of quality looks from 15-feet in.

-- Chris Bennett

PREDICTIONS

Bennett: The old adage that it's hard to beat a team three times in a season is probably the only thing keeping me from predicting a Tar Heel blowout. Syracuse continues to defy the odds and will certainly be the looser team playing with house money. But there's also a logical side to this: North Carolina has better talent, and the depth and length can help save them from cold shooting performances. They averaged 79.5 points per game in two regular season meetings with Syracuse and have not been held under 83 in their run to Houston, while Syracuse has only topped 70 points once. It's hard to see the Orange scoring 75-plus, or the Heels being held under that number. Similar to many of their games, look for a close 30 minutes of action with depth eventually wearing down the smaller six-man rotation of the Orange. North Carolina moves onto the national championship game.

Letarski: It's entirely possible that all the stars align, allowing Syracuse to knock down their shots and control the tempo while the Tar Heels struggle from the field. I'm just not going to bet on it playing out like that. The Tar Heels are too deep and too talented, and Roy Williams will have them well-prepared to deal with the 2-3 zone that Syracuse will play. It's tough to pick against the momentum the Orange are on, and though I think they can keep it closer than the opening point spread, I'm still rolling with the Tar Heels, 74-68.