This article is part of our NCAA Tournament Preview series.
East Region
West Region
Midwest Region
South Region
The South region seems to lack true firepower at the top. Virginia was arguably the most dominant team in the country not named Duke this season, but the Hoos still have their doubters from past NCAA Tournament failures, including the infamous loss to UMBC last year. Tennessee was the No. 1 team in the country for some time during the regular season, but the Vols failed to secure both the regular season or tournament championship in the SEC. I suppose the argument can be made that if they don't have to face Auburn, they'll be fine. The Vols lost twice in four games to the Tigers down the stretch, including a walloping in the SEC Title Game. Purdue at No. 3 is largely a one-man band with Carsen Edwards, and if he isn't healthy, the Boilermakers could be in trouble. Rounding out the top-4 in this region is a Kansas State squad that tied for the regular season championship in the Big 12, knocking off rival Kansas to break its record 14-straight titles, but is rather thin and arguably hasn't had a big win since beating the Jayhawks nearly six weeks ago.
On the flip side, there are sleepers-a-plenty in this region. An overachieving Villanova squad should be on upset alert versus Saint Mary's, while the classic 12-5 trap game could leave a sour taste in the mouth of the Wisconsin Badger faithful (more on this game below). Even the Old
East Region
West Region
Midwest Region
South Region
The South region seems to lack true firepower at the top. Virginia was arguably the most dominant team in the country not named Duke this season, but the Hoos still have their doubters from past NCAA Tournament failures, including the infamous loss to UMBC last year. Tennessee was the No. 1 team in the country for some time during the regular season, but the Vols failed to secure both the regular season or tournament championship in the SEC. I suppose the argument can be made that if they don't have to face Auburn, they'll be fine. The Vols lost twice in four games to the Tigers down the stretch, including a walloping in the SEC Title Game. Purdue at No. 3 is largely a one-man band with Carsen Edwards, and if he isn't healthy, the Boilermakers could be in trouble. Rounding out the top-4 in this region is a Kansas State squad that tied for the regular season championship in the Big 12, knocking off rival Kansas to break its record 14-straight titles, but is rather thin and arguably hasn't had a big win since beating the Jayhawks nearly six weeks ago.
On the flip side, there are sleepers-a-plenty in this region. An overachieving Villanova squad should be on upset alert versus Saint Mary's, while the classic 12-5 trap game could leave a sour taste in the mouth of the Wisconsin Badger faithful (more on this game below). Even the Old Dominion Monarchs should have Purdue on upset watch; the Monarchs are led by the progeny of a former NBA player.
Let's take a closer look at the players, coaches and matchups that will ultimately decide the fate of the South region.
THE FAVORITES
No. 1 Virginia – The Hoos are back, and ready for some redemption. Just one year after becoming the first No. 1 seed to lose to a No. 16 squad, Virginia returns to the scene of the crime, once again snatching the No. 1 seed in the South region. Four of Virginia's five starters were on last year's team, meaning they certainly won't take No. 16 Gardner-Webb lightly this time around. Virginia was arguably the best defensive team in the country during the year, allowing just 55.1 points per game. Leading scorer Kyle Guy is having a much more efficient year shooting as a junior, including hitting 46.3 percent from three-point range.
No. 2 Tennessee – The Vols are deep, athletic and battle-tested. The beat Gonzaga and Kentucky (twice) en route to the No. 2 seed, though as mentioned above, perhaps faltered a bit down the stretch and could be disappointed in their seeding. All five starters are juniors and seniors, led by two-time SEC Player of the Year Grant Williams. Admiral Schofield should be considered 1A on the depth chart, but the Vols can beat you in a variety of ways.
No. 3 Purdue – The Boilermakers started the season with a 6-5 record, but regained their footing en route to the No. 3 seed in the South. Purdue is led by senior Carsen Edwards, who led the Big Ten in scoring by a wide margin. Unfortunately, Edwards has been battling a sore back, and Purdue lost two of their last three games before entering the NCAA Tournament, albeit to the same team (Minnesota).
No. 4 Kansas State – The Wildcats played a role in ending rival Kansas's 14-year streak of winning the Big 12, but could be without the services of one of their best players in the big dance. Preseason Big 12 Player of the Year Dean Wade is unlikely to play in the tourney due to a foot injury. However, it is worth noting that the Wildcats played without Wade for long stretches this season anyway. The Wildcats are also laden with upperclassmen, led by seniors Barry Brown Jr. and Kamau Stokes, and junior Xavier Sneed.
CINDERELLA WATCH
No. 12 Oregon – The Ducks would not have even made the big dance if not for an epic run in capturing the Pac-12 Tournament title. In fact, Oregon comes into the big dance having won eight-straight contests, albeit against a woeful field of Pac-12 opponents. Junior and offensive catalyst Payton Pritchard has been on fire of late, averaging 19.3 points, 4.3 rebounds and 6.7 dimes over the last three games.
No. 14 Old Dominion – The Monarchs are led by B.J. Stith, and if the last name sounds familiar, it should. Stith's father, Bryant, played 10 years in the NBA, and incidentally went to college at Virginia. In fact, so did B.J., who transferred to ODU after one season at UVA. B.J. has blossomed into the Conference-USA Player of the Year, averaging 16.9 points and 7.4 rebounds per game. The Monarchs are a superior defensive team, allowing just 60.9 points per game, which is seventh in the entire nation. If Purdue's Carsen Edwards isn't 100 percent healthy, the Monarchs could shut down the Boilermakers en route to a monstrous upset.
BIGGEST BUST
No. 6 Villanova – Coach Jay Wright has maximized the potential for this squad, which is on the young side and lost a plethora of talent from last year's National Championship Squad. The Wildcats still managed to win the Big East Tournament for the third-straight season, but 'Nova can no longer beat up on a watered down Big East anymore. Eric Paschall and Phil Booth have stepped up as senior leaders, but the talent level is just nowhere near the same as it was a season ago with Jalen Brunson, Mikal Bridges, Omari Spellman and Donte DiVincenzo all in the NBA.
FIRST-ROUND UPSET
No. 12 Oregon vs. No. 5 Wisconsin – For the record, I almost don't consider these 12-5 trap games as upsets anymore. Or the 11-6 games for that matter. However, in terms of seeding, these contests are still classified as upsets, and this 12-5 game will be a doozy for the Badgers. Wisconsin draws the Pac-12 Tournament champion in the form of the Oregon Ducks, and will have to travel to the west coast on top of it. Inexplicably, this first-round game in the South region will take place in San Jose, California. Certainly, it would appear that the crowd would be more partisan to the Ducks in this contest. Add in the fact that Oregon comes into the tourney streaking, and having Ethan Happ may simply not be enough. Happ will also likely be guarded by defensive stalwart Kenny Wooten, who was third in the Pac-12 in blocked shots this season.
PLAYER TO WATCH
Jarron Cumberland, G, Cincinnati – I didn't get to talk much about the Bearcats (28-6) in this article but make no mistake about it; this is an extremely dangerous Cincinnati squad. The No. 7 seed seems low for the AAC Tournament Champions, particularly since they dispatched of an excellent Houston (31-3) squad. By contrast, Houston received a No. 3 seed in the West. Cumberland is the AAC's Player of the Year, the leading scorer and floor general for Cincy. He dropped 33 of UC's 69 points in the tourney title game, yet still does not seem to get any pub on a national level. As expected with past Cincinnati teams, the Bearcats are ferocious on the defensive end. The difference this season is that they have a player in Cumberland who can score when they need a bucket.
SWEET 16 PICKS
No. 1 Virginia – The Hoos won't be done in by the No. 16 seed this time around, and the second-round matchup with two flawed teams (reeling Oklahoma or fading Ole Miss) provides a favorable draw. Despite past disappointments, the Cavaliers should cruise to the Sweet 16.
No. 12 Oregon – There has to be at least one double-digit seed in the Sweet 16. Oregon certainly has as good of a chance as any lower-seeded unit. The Ducks are hot, don't have to travel far, and will have plenty of naysayers as motivation given the poor year that the Pac-12 had overall. It would be foolish to underestimate these Ducks, though, as Wisconsin is one-dimensional, and Kansas State could be missing a key cog. Imagine how scary Oregon would be if they had Bol Bol.
No. 11 Saint Mary's – Doesn't this always seem to a happen? A team that wasn't even supposed to make the tournament ends up in the Sweet 16. I suppose I'm double-dipping with both Oregon and Saint Mary's, but the Gaels have plenty of momentum after a dynamite win over Gonzaga, and as mentioned above I believe Villanova has maxed out. I'm not a believer in Purdue either, as the Boilermakers could get bounced by the Monarchs.
No. 2 Tennessee – Kudos to Colgate on making its first NCAA Tournament since 1996. However, the Raiders will be no match for the Vols. That second-round game versus Cincinnati could be an extremely difficult test. In fact, I'll go out on a limb and say the winner of that game wins the entire region. In a tight battle, UT squeaks by.
FINAL FOUR PICK
No. 2 Tennessee – I still hold to my belief that Tony Bennett's version of Virginia is simply not built for NCAA Tournament success. From top to bottom, Tennessee feels like the most complete team in this region. The Vols have the experience, but more importantly the talent, to make the Final Four. While they are led by Grant Williams and Admiral Schofield, Lamonte Turner can also carry the team in the scoring column, while Jordan Bone is an exceptional passer. I also feel the Vols will be even more motivated by their dismal performance in the SEC Championship. This region could get wild, but on paper, Tennessee is the best bet.
