This article is part of our DFS College Basketball series.
Top Players:
Tres Tinkle, Oregon State ($8,700 FD, $10,100 DK): Tinkle is the highest-priced player on both sites for a matchup against the Pac-12's top team, which isn't necessarily saying much in 2019. The numbers aren't great here, however. Washington's pace is No. 263 in the country, and it sports the 16th-best defense, according to KenPom. In the first meeting between these teams, Tinkle played a full 40 minutes, took 12 shots, and finished with 18 points and nine rebounds (33.8 on DraftKings/under 4x). It was a poor shooting day, as 10 of those 18 points came from the charity stripe. Stephen Thompson Jr. ($7,600 FD, $8,100 DK) actually had the better game, racking up 30 points. There's a window to improve, and we've seen Tinkle's ability with him reaching 40-plus in three of his last four, but my exposure won't be super heavy.
John Mooney, Notre Dame ($8,400 FD, $8,800 DK): Mooney was once one of the hottest players in the nation at one time, averaging 41.4 DK points to begin the month of January. That mark went down to 30.8 over the next seven games, but he let his ceiling show Saturday with 51.3 DK points against a tough defense in Louisville. There's no previous matchup with Clemson we can look at reliably, though on paper, this isn't a good matchup. Clemson is No. 14 in the country in opponent two-point field goal percentage, according to KenPom, and is No. 10 overall in defensive efficiency. They also do no tempo favors, checking in at No. 250 overall. There's always a chance Elijah Thomas ($8,000 FD, $8,000 DK) gets in foul trouble for Clemson and Mooney takes advantage, but if you couldn't already tell, I'm not crazy about this spot.
Jessie Govan, Georgetown ($8,300 FD, $9,500 DK): Govan and the Hoyas played DePaul one week ago today, and the senior racked up 26 points and six rebounds in a game where 155 total points were scored. At his current price, that was good for just over 4x on both FanDuel and DraftKings. While fantasy owners ideally look for a little more, I'm perfectly fine going back to him in a game that again has the highest over/under on the slate (by double digits) of 158.0. The same reasons I recommended him on FanDuel last week apply here: a high over/under, slight pace boost (Depaul is No. 106, per KenPom) and the fact he's facing a bad defense (No. 186 in KenPom's efficiency metric). DePaul also isn't so hot when it comes to opponent two-point field goal percentage (50.8 percent).
Alpha Diallo, Providence ($8,200 FD, $9,400 DK): This is a fade for me not necessarily due to a bad matchup, but to recent performance. He's averaged 27.0 on DraftKings over his last five, and you can get that type of production from anybody in the middle tier. He did score 39.0 on DraftKings in the first meeting between these two teams, but that was all the way back in December, and still not good enough for 5x.
Value Plays:
Jordan McCabe, West Virginia ($5,200 FD, $3,800 DK): If you want to play WVU guard roulette, this is the first place I'm looking. His FanDuel price matches his risk level, but he's going to be the chalk of the night on DraftKings after averaging 39.6 FPPG over his last three, including an outburst of 60.8 in a 3OT affair last week. Similar value can be found in Jermaine Haley ($5,900 FD, $4,500 DK), who might even have the better floor.
Emmitt Matthews Jr., West Virginia ($4,000 FD, $3,200 DK): Like McCabe, Matthews has suddenly grown into a larger role. He's now started five in a row, and while the production hasn't been equal to that of McCabe, it did culminate with him scoring 25.5 DK points Saturday against a tough Oklahoma team.
Jaedon LeDee, Ohio State ($3,800 FD, $3,100 DK): With Kaleb Wesson ($7,500 FD, $7,300 DK) suspended indefinitely, Ledee drew the start Saturday and registered 24.75 points on DraftKings. It was his only game outside of single digits, so while there's risk involved, there's a chance you get a starter here for basically the minimum price.
Justin Ahrens, Ohio State ($3,900 FD, $3,500 DK): If you want to take advantage of the Wesson situation in another way, Ahrens is the other option you look at. There's risk here too, however. Ahrens had 20.5 and 39.75(!!) on DraftKings to close out February, but didn't score a point his last time out. Both Ahrens and Ledee were four-star recruits, and are both in heavy consideration Wednesday.
Game to Target:
I discussed this in Govan's section above, but Georgetown/DePaul is the night's highest over/under, and there are other places to get in on this game outside of the senior. For reference, not much stands out from the box score of their first meeting. Max Strus ($8,200 FD, $8,400 DK) and Paul Reed ($6,700 FD, $7,000 DK) were the next best fantasy producers, but also happen to be the highest-priced players. If you're in GPPs, I'd give Mac McClung ($6,000 FD, $6,100 DK) a look too, as he's apt to get hot from three-point land in any given game, plus he scored 26.5 on DK in his first shot against DePaul. However, we're going to primarily focus on the No. 2 over/under game of the night.
West Virginia vs. Iowa State (-5.5), o/u 146.5, 7:00 p.m. EST
Both of these teams have been difficult to break down to break down to this point. We get yet another curveball here, as the entire dynamic has changed as of Wednesday afternoon when it was announced leading scorer Marial Shayok ($8,000 FD, $8,200 DK) suffered a foot injury in practice and will miss Wednesday's game. He played 29 minutes in the first meeting, so there's definitely some big PT up for grabs. This is compounded by the fact that Nick Weiler-Babb ($6,400 FD, $6,700 DK) is considered "iffy" for the game with an undisclosed issue. As a result, Talon Horton-Tucker ($7,200 FD, $7,100 DK) gets a giant boost, and might even be the lock of the night. THT had a dud his last time out against Texas, but averaged 30-plus on DK over his previous five. A case could be made for Tyrese Haliburton ($5,000 FD, $5,800 DK) too, but I prefer the options that have been more productive of late. He's had more than 20 FanDuel points just once in his last eight games, but that might actually work to the benefit of DFS players here due to the deflated price. Don't forget about Lindell Wiggington ($5,700 FD, $6,300 DK), who might end up a steal, especially if he starts. When the Cyclones first saw the Mountaineer press back on Jan. 30, Wigginton was the star of that game, scoring a season-high 28 points off the bench. He's typically a boom-or-bust option, but suddenly gets heavy consideration due to all the other backcourt injuries.
I mentioned a couple West Virginia guards in the "values" section, but we certainly can't forget about forward Derek Culver ($7,300 FD). The first time these teams played, Esa Ahmad and Wesley Harris were still on the team, and Culver wasn't in the starting lineup yet. He still finished with eight points, four rebounds and three assists over 22 minutes, but I wouldn't be surprised if those numbers double Wednesday night. The Cyclone frontcourt is healthy, but nobody is quite as imposing in terms of size as Culver. DFS players will also want to take a look at Lamont West ($5,500 FD, $5,300 DK), who is coming off a dreadful outing against Oklahoma, but averaged 25.2 on DK over the previous four. It's not quite 5x, but still OK for me in cash games. It's also worth noting West logged 32.8 against the Cyclones in their first meeting. There's a whole lot to like on both of these teams in terms of value, and so far, this game is typically composing 50 percent of my lineups in Wednesday's early builds.
Game to Fade:
I'd say the Ohio State/Northwestern game is typically worth fading, especially on a night when the over/under is five points lower than the next worst game. However, the absence of Kaleb Wesson (suspension) opens up some interesting possibilities, some of which are discussed in the "values" section above. Instead, we'll spotlight a different game.
Notre Dame vs. Clemson (-3.5), o/u 133, 9:00 p.m. EST
I discussed Mooney above, heavily suggesting a fade due to the tough assignment. Notre Dame plays at a tempo outside the top-250 as well (No. 288, to be exact), which helps explain the low over/under. Sure, I can live with Marcquise Reed ($8,100 FD, $8,900 DK) given the tear he's on, but my early builds have worked better when flipping to the tier just below. The price is much more palatable on FanDuel, at least. Elijah Thomas ($8,000 FD, $8,000 DK) has a ceiling in the 50s, but also has to watch foul trouble, collecting four or more personals in four of his last five. For Notre Dame, Prentiss Hubb ($5,500 FD, $5,500 DK) has been the hottest player, but again, I don't want much to do with the nation's No. 10 most efficient defense. The Clemson backcourt can generate steals too, so there's some turnover risk. All in all, there's so much value on the slate elsewhere that there really isn't a good reason to force your way into this game, unless you're trying out some contrarian strategies.
